News Thread zu aktuellen Währungsentwicklungen

[cyberstievie]

In diesen Thread werde ich aktuelle Nachrichten posten insbesondere zur Entwicklung evtl. von Schwäche gefährdeter Währungen.

Jeder kann beitragen, gleich geht's los. Ich erwarte noch einige Verwerfungen in den kommenden Monaten...

[cyberstievie]

Britisches Pfund: Ein Hauch von Island (http://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/breakingviews/britisches-pfund-ein-hauch-von-island;2092117)

18.11.2008
Island groß geschrieben?
Britisches Pfund: Ein Hauch von Island

George Osborne, der finanzpolitische Sprecher der Opposition, könnte unklug gewesen sein, als er vom Risiko einer Flucht aus dem britischen Pfund sprach. Er hat dabei aber auf ein ernstes Problem hingewiesen. Die Regierung muss handeln, um das Risiko zu verringern, sagen Hugo Dixon und Edward Hadas.

Es war unklug von George Osborne, zu sagen, dass Großbritannien möglicherweise ein Kollaps des Pfund Sterling droht, wenn Gordon Brown nicht vorsichtig mit seiner Kreditaufnahme ist. Hochrangige Politiker, auch jene aus der Opposition, sollten nicht eine Flucht aus der eigenen Währung voraussagen, denn dies kann seinerseits Panik provozieren. Der finanzpolitische Sprecher der Opposition hat aber seinen Finger in eine ernste Wunde gelegt.

Einfach gesagt: Es schwebt ein Hauch von Island über Großbritannien. Der winzige Inselstaat ging in die Knie, als das Ausland das Vertrauen in die Fähigkeit der Regierung verlor, ein Bankensystem mit massiven Fremdwährungsverbindlichkeiten zu retten, während gleichzeitig das Land ein riesiges Handelsbilanzdefizit aufwies. Nachdem das Ausland die Finanzierung der isländischen Banken ablehnte, brachen diese zusammen, und die Landeswährung stürzte ab wie eine Bleikugel.

Die Exzesse Großbritanniens sind zwar weit weniger extrem, aber zu groß, um sich beruhigt zurückzulehnen. Die Fremdwährungsverbindlichkeiten britischer Banken summierten sich Ende Juni auf fast das Dreifache des Bruttoinlandsproduktes, in Island war es das Siebenfache. Sicherlich verfügten britische Banken auch über umfangreiche Fremdwährungsvermögenswerte, dennoch gab es ein Ungleichgewicht. Die Verbindlichkeiten überstiegen die Summe der Vermögenswerte um 381 Milliarden US-Dollar. Die Kehrseite dieses Überschusses an Fremdwährungsverbindlichkeiten ist ein Überschuss an Pfund-Sterling-Vermögenswerten. Fällt das Pfund weiter, werden die Schulden größer, wenn man sie in Pfund umrechnet, und in den Bankbilanzen könnten sich Löcher auftun.

Nun könnte man sagen, das dies nichts ausmacht. Schließlich hat die Regierung gerade die großen Banken rekapitalisiert und angeboten, bis zu 250 Milliarden Pfund ihrer Verbindlichkeiten zu garantieren, das gilt sogar für Fremdwährungsverbindlichkeiten. Der Haken an der Sache ist, dass die Fremdwährungsreserven der Regierung erbärmlich klein sind. Sie machen nur ein Zehntel der Währungsungleichgewichte der Banken aus. Wenn es wirklich hart auf hart kommt, könnte der Staat deswegen harte Währungen leihen müssen, um seine Garantien erfüllen zu können.

Wenn der private Sektor große Devisenmengen einnehmen würde, könnte der Staat dieses Geld zuhause finden. Doch so ist es nicht, Großbritannien weist ein großes Handelsbilanzdefizit auf. Zwar ist es wiederum nicht im Entferntesten so groß wie das isländische Defizit, das seit 2004 dauerhaft über zehn Prozent lag. Bei einem Defizit von drei Prozent des Bruttoinlandsproduktes muss Großbritannien aber jährlich netto rund 40 Milliarden Pfund ausländische Mittel anziehen, um das Handelsbilanzdefizit ausgleichen zu können.

Schließlich gibt es noch das Problem, das Osborne erwähnte: Die eigene Kreditaufnahme von Gordon Brown. Die Regierung hat ein großes Haushaltsdefizit, das sich automatisch ausdehnen wird, wenn die Rezession wirkt und die Steuereinnahmen sinken. Brown plant jetzt eine weitere Defizitausweitung, um die Rezession nicht noch schlimmer werden zu lassen. Rechnet man alles zusammen, könnte das Defizit im nächsten Jahr fünf Prozent des Bruttoinlandsproduktes erreichen.

Normalerweise würde Brown dieses Geld aufnehmen, indem er einfach Staatsanleihen verkauft, viele davon an ausländische Käufer. Doch in diesen fiebrigen Zeiten könnte es eine Grenze geben für die Menge an Pfund-Sterling-Anleihen, die die Welt aufnehmen will.

Es hat schon einen scharfen Rückgang des britischen Pfund gegeben, im letzten Monat lag er bei zehn Prozent gegenüber einen handelsgewichteten Währungskorb. Gegenüber dem US-Dollar war er sogar noch größer. Wenn aber das Vertrauen verloren geht, könnten die Dinge noch schneller eskalieren. Dann könnte nicht nur das Ausland der britischen Kreditaufnahme die kalte Schulter zeigen, es könnte auch zu einer Kapitalflucht kommen, weil Einheimische ihre Pfund in härtere Währungen tauschen.

Das Szenario ist nicht unausweichlich, doch es wäre natürlich besser, wenn man nicht einmal in die Nähe des Abgrundes geriete. Leider gibt es für die Ursachen der Verwundbarkeit keine schnelle Hilfe. Nicht für die Währungsungleichgewichte der Banken und das Handelsbilanzdefizit, und auch nicht für das Haushaltsdefizit. Auf kurze Sicht liegt Gordon Brown sogar richtig, wenn er für finanzpolitische Anreize eintritt, um die Rezession einzudämmen - vorausgesetzt, diese sind vorübergehender Natur.

All dies könnte leicht tränenreich enden, wenn der Premierminister nicht auch einen glaubwürdigen mittelfristigen Plan vorlegt, um den Haushalt und die Leistungsbilanz auszubalancieren, und den regulatorischen Rahmen flickt, um Währungsungleichgewichte bei Banken zu vermeiden.

Worte alleine werden nicht helfen. Brown sprach zu oft von Umsicht, als er Finanzminister war, um in dieser Hinsicht noch glaubwürdig zu sein. Gebraucht wird ein institutioneller Rahmen, der die Regierungen dazu zwingt, Geld zur Seite zu legen, wenn die Zeiten besser sind. Dies kann Brown umso schwerer versprechen, als er dann wohl kaum noch im Amt ist.

Ideal wäre eine Zweiparteien-Vereinbarung über den Weg in die Zukunft. Traurigerweise sieht es danach nicht aus, denn sowohl die Regierung als auch die wichtigste Oppositionspartei versuchen, aus der Wirtschaftskrise auf Kosten des jeweils anderen Kapital zu schlagen.

http://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/breakingviews/britisches-pfund-ein-hauch-von-island;2092117;0

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DEURGBP.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DEURGBP.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DUSDGBP.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DUSDGBP.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

NOVEMBER 19, 2008, 8:09 P.M. ET

Turkey Reduces Interest Rates in Surprise Move Called Risky (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122714298263942913.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)

By CHRISTOPHER EMSDEN

Turkey's central bank cut interest rates Wednesday to spur fast-slowing-economic growth, a move that surprised investors because of the country's heavy reliance on foreign investment and a recent plunge in its currency.

The central bank cut its core overnight borrowing rate by half a percentage point to 16.25% and its overnight lending rate by a full percentage point to 18.75%.

While central banks around the world have been cutting interest rates, such moves have been rare among emerging economies with heavy reliance on the shrinking pool of international capital flows.

"This is a very risky move," said Paul Biszko, senior analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

The Turkish lira, which has shed more than a third of its value against the dollar in the past two months, fell a further 4% on the news, pushing the dollar as high as 1.72 lira, up from as low as 1.64 lira late Tuesday.

The decision to cut rates reflected clear signs that the Turkish economy is slowing, which, together with falling oil prices, should slow inflation more quickly than previously forecast, the central bank said.

Still, Turkey's current-account deficit is around 6% of gross domestic product, and the country may need to refinance as much as $150 billion in debt next year, including corporate liabilities. Foreign portfolio investment is roughly equal to the central bank's foreign-exchange reserves, which stood at $70 billion late last month.

The central bank said it plans measures to assure foreign-exchange liquidity in local capital markets but offered no details. It has in the past served as a broker and guarantor for dollar-denominated loans between Turkish banks and firms.

Still, the rate cut comes as a surprise given increasing signals that Turkey is coming close to hammering out a standby loan with the International Monetary Fund.

An eventual deal with the IMF might require the rate cut to be reversed, said Mr. Biszko at RBC, noting that higher rates were a condition for IMF assistance to Hungary and Ukraine.

Still, with the Turkish economy growing at its slowest rate in six years and a possible contraction looming, the central bank indicated it believes a slower economy and cheaper oil will at least offset higher import prices caused by a weaker lira.

"The rate cut is a clear gamble," especially as expectations were unanimous that no changes would be made, said Chris Scicluna, an analyst at Daiwa Securities.

—Clare Connaghan contributed to this article.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122714298263942913.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DUSDTRY.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DUSDTRY.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DEURTRY.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DEURTRY.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

Lira falls sharply after Turkey cuts interest rates (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/lira-falls-sharply-after-turkey/story.aspx?guid={70B0E34F-8F94-40DF-9B39-6A03944E7592})

By Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:04 p.m. EST Nov. 19, 2008

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Turkey's currency fell sharply against the euro and the dollar Wednesday after the central bank surprised the markets by cutting interest rates.
The central bank cut its key policy rate by 50 basis points to 16.25%. It also lowered the lending rate by 100 basis points to 18.75%.
The bank was widely expected to leave rates unchanged.
Following the rate cuts, the Turkish lira fell 5% against the dollar and was down 4.7% against the euro. The lira has tumbled about 30% against the dollar in the past three months.
"Ongoing problems in international credit markets and the global economy will continue to restrain both the domestic and external demand for an extended period, limiting the pass-through from exchange rates to domestic prices," the central bank said in a statement.
The sharp decline in oil and other commodity prices will reduce inflationary pressures and inflation will fall more than previously forecast, the bank said.
The central bank said it "will continue to take the necessary measures to contain the adverse effects of the global financial turmoil on the domestic economy, provided that they do not conflict with the price stability objective."
Future policy decisions will depend on global markets developments and their effect on Turkish markets, the bank said.
In Istanbul, the benchmark IMKB-100 stock index ended down 6.7% on Wednesday. The index has tumbled 61% this year.

'Reckless' move

Analysts were critical of the unexpected move by the central bank.
"We are very surprised by the bank's decision, which we regard as a reckless and dangerous move likely to send the Turkish lira plummeting," said Lars Christensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank.
The rate cut "is likely to accelerate outflows from Turkish markets," Christensen said, adding that there is a "major risk of substantial depreciation of the lira."
While Turkish growth has slowed dramatically, it is surprising that the central bank has cut rates when inflation remains well above its official target and the country's funding requirements are still substantial, Christensen said.
Strategists at RBC Capital Markets said that "this is a very risky move for the CBRT [central bank], which they may need to reverse in the months ahead, especially if they sign onto an IMF deal, as really only emerging-market net creditors have been able to pull off rate cuts in this environment."
Turkey has a large current account deficit amounting to 6% of gross domestic product and a very large upcoming foreign debt maturity schedule of $47 billion over the next year, the strategists said. Turkey is reportedly close to striking a deal on a new loan with the International Monetary Fund.

End of Story

Polya Lesova is a New York-based reporter for MarketWatch.

[cyberstievie]

Turkey steps up efforts to boost economy, lira firms (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8054086)

Reuters, Friday November 21 2008

By Hatice Aydogdu and Paul de Bendern
ANKARA/ISTANBUL, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Turkey plans to shore up its weakening economy by raising bank deposit guarantees and opening credit lines, government sources said on Friday, boosting markets a day after it confirmed a deal was near with the IMF.

Turkey's current state guarantee covers a maximum 50,000 lira ($30,000) per person but was expected to be raised next week when Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is also due to unveil an economic stimulus package. "It may be a 100 percent increase or it may vary according to the kind of deposit or operation in question," a senior government source, who declined to be named, told Reuters.

The government -- facing its first major slowdown in the economy since coming to power in 2002 -- wants to raise the limits due to concerns of unfair competition for banks after guarantees were raised abroad. European Union-applicant Turkey is not under the financial strains that have forced Iceland, Ukraine, Hungary, Serbia and now Latvia to seek aid from the International Monetary Fund, but it is affected by a slowing economy and a falling currency. The lira, which has lost a third of its value in two months, firmed two percent to 1.67 against the dollar on Friday. Stocks were also sharply higher. "Today's gains are down to a recovery in global markets driven by reactionary buying in the United States, but also by expectations of a deal between Turkey and the IMF, and developments such as a higher deposit guarantee," said Mahmut Kaya at Garanti Invest in Istanbul.

"The sell-off has been so strong up to know that I think this is something of a dead-cat bounce." Economy Minister Mehmet Simsek confirmed that Erdogan planned to announce a package of measures next week. It was also expected to include opening further credit lines for Turkish companies, which are struggling to cope with shrinking exports.

On Thursday senior sources in the ruling AK Party told Reuters that Ankara was set to agree to an IMF deal giving access to $20 billion to $40 billion in funds if needed. Erdogan said the exact size and structure of a possible deal had not yet been decided.

Turkey's banks, hardened by a 2001 financial crisis, have been largely spared the turmoil which has ravaged their Western peers. But the economy has begun to slow sharply and markets have been hammered by growing risk aversion towards emerging markets.

IMF CUSHION

Business leaders say an IMF anchor will give credibility to the economy and ensure Turkey will be able to roll over its external financing needs for 2009, which are expected to exceed $100 billion. Turkey's foreign exchange reserves are more than $70 billion. The government is worried about signing up to an IMF deal that would limit its options for boosting economic growth next year, particularly as it prepares for municipal elections.The IMF wants budget plans for 2009 to be based on a more conservative growth estimate than the government's current 4 percent forecast, according to economists. A higher growth estimate gives the government more flexibility on spending.

In recent days the government has begun to unveil a series of economic stimulus initiatives, including cheaper loans for small to medium-sized businesses, after brushing aside sharply deteriorating economic data for weeks. Turkish companies have begun shedding jobs and trimming production as key export markets, particularly Germany, weaken.

Turkey's last $10 billion regular stand-by accord with the IMF, part of a series of loan programmes which helped it to emerge from a 2001 financial crisis, expired in May. The Turkish Central Bank stunned markets when it cut benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points to 16.25 percent on Wednesday, sending the lira further down. On Friday Central Bank Governor Durmus Yilmaz said the bank may take extra measures to support foreign exchange liquidity needs.

(Additional reporting by Daren Butler, Alexandra Hudson, Tolgahan Ozkan and Asli Kandemir; Writing by Paul de Bendern; editing by David Stamp)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8054086

[cyberstievie]

Emerging Market Debt Costs Jump in Week, Hastening IMF Bailouts (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aIJif6jqDY3U&refer=news)

Emerging Market Debt Costs Jump in Week, Hastening IMF Bailouts

By Laura Cochrane and Lester Pimentel

Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Developing nations' borrowing costs rose the most in a month this week, hampering the ability of governments to refinance $1.2 trillion of short-term debt and hastening appeals for international bailouts.

The extra yield investors demand to own emerging-market government bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries climbed for an eighth day, to 7.76 percentage points from 6.7 percentage points last week, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s EMBI+ index.

Developing-nation debt has slumped this week amid concern mounting credit losses will deepen a global recession. Turkey is seeking between $20 billion and $40 billion from the International Monetary Fund, potentially doubling emergency loans provided this month to Hungary, Ukraine, Iceland, Pakistan and Serbia. Latvia said yesterday it will also ask for IMF support and Belarus is in talks for at least $2 billion of aid.

``Clearly we are in the early stages of a crisis in emerging markets,'' said Neil Dougall, head of emerging-market research at Dresdner Kleinwort in London. ``The fact we have already seen $80 billion penciled in for possible dispersion indicates that the IMF is going to be facing quite significant pressure.''

Developing nations in Europe and Asia have about $500 billion each of government debt due in the next 12 months, while Latin America must repay $175 billion, according to Capital Economics Ltd. in London. Turkey and Russia each have about $100 billion owing and Poland has $85 billion.

Turkey-IMF Talks

While Russia has the world's third-largest pool of currency reserves at $453.5 billion to back payments, Turkey's short-term debt dwarfs its $70.5 billion of reserves. Turkey already owes $8.5 billion to the IMF, which is five times more than its quota, and the proposed loan would take its debt to an all-time high of between 17 and 23 times, Merrill Lynch & Co. analysts said in a report today.

``Turkey needs an IMF arrangement to meet its large external refinancing needs,'' said Ilker Domac, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in Istanbul. The package will be closer to $20 billion than $40 billion and should allow Turkey to access the funds as needed to repay debt rather than a ``precautionary'' arrangement, he said.

Talks between Turkey and the IMF are ``still ongoing at both policy and technical levels,'' Hossein Samiei, the IMF's representative in Ankara, said in an e-mail yesterday.

The yield premium on Turkey's dollar debt has widened 46 basis points this week to 6.47 percentage points, according to JPMorgan. The average spread on emerging-market government bonds has more than tripled in the past six months and reached a six- year high of 8.65 percentage points on Oct. 24.

Russia's Reserves

``Market conditions suggest that few, if any, emerging- market governments will have the luxury of tapping the markets at acceptable levels in the short term,'' said Ivailo Vesselinov, a senior economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in London.

Russia's reserves have dropped 24 percent since Aug. 8 as the central bank uses the money to prop up the weakening ruble. Investors are cutting their Russian holdings as oil, the nation's main export earner, trades at $50 a barrel, down more than 60 percent from the peak in July.

The spread on Russian dollar bonds today jumped 82 basis points to 8.60 percentage points, according to JPMorgan.

Latvia is asking for IMF assistance after the government spent $334.9 million of its $5.4 billion of currency reserves last week to defend its currency, the lati. The Baltic nation will need as much as 1.2 billion lati ($2.1 billion) in an IMF standby loan, said Andris Vilks, chief economist at AS SEB Banka.

Belarus requested a loan of ``no less than'' $2 billion from the IMF last month to invest in manufacturing and jobs after a slump in the country's exports, which account for 60 percent of gross domestic product.

Venezuelan Buyback

Venezuela has bought back $800 million of international bonds and may make more purchases, Finance Minister Ali Rodriguez said yesterday, according to Reuters. The buy-back included 9.25 percent bonds maturing in 2027, Rodriguez said. A Finance Ministry spokesman declined to comment when contacted by Bloomberg News.

The 9.25 percent bonds gained 0.25 cent to 64.25 cents on the dollar today, pushing the yield down 6 basis points to 14.98 percent, according to JPMorgan.

Ecuador's bonds fell a day after a government debt audit commission said it uncovered ``illegality and illegitimacy'' in the country's foreign obligations. President Rafael Correa reiterated that his government won't pay ``illegitimate debt'' after receiving the report from the commission. He didn't say whether he plans to make an overdue $30 million interest payment on the country's 2012 bonds before a monthlong grace period expires in December.

The yield on the 2012 bonds rose 2.15 percentage points today to 69.43 percent, according to JPMorgan. The bond's price dropped 1 cent on the dollar to 25 cents.

Last Updated: November 21, 2008 10:35 EST

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aIJif6jqDY3U&refer=news

[cyberstievie]

ECB opens 10 bln euro tap for Poland (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8057612)

Reuters, Friday November 21 2008

By Marcin Goettig and Kuba Jaworowski
WARSAW, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Poland's central bank on Friday bolstered its ammunition for fighting the effects of the global credit crunch on Polish banks with a deal allowing it to draw up to 10 billion euros from the European Central Bank.
The ECB said in a statement the agreement, concluded on Nov. 6, will give the Polish central bank (NBP) access to ECB funds to use in repurchase transactions with Polish commercial banks struggling to borrow hard currencies due to the credit crunch.
Economists said the move was precautionary and could not be compared to the kind of emergency financial help countries such as Hungary and Ukraine have recently sought from the International Monetary Fund.
"This is not the type of loan that Hungary got from the IMF," said Piotr Kalisz, senior economist at Citibank Handlowy in Warsaw. "It is worth noting that this lending facility is 'just in case'."
Unlike Hungary, Poland, the EU's largest ex-communist member state, has strong economic fundamentals and relatively low foreign exchange exposure.
But the zloty has lost 10 percent against the euro since Nov. 1, showing it remains vulnerable to external market shocks coming from other emerging markets. Conversely, any major market turbulence in Poland could send a new shockwave through the region.
"Confirmation (of the deal with the ECB)... certainly shores up Poland, which has been suffering almost guilt by association because of what has happened in Hungary," said Stuart Bennett, currency strategist at Calyon.
Another economist, who declined to be named, said: "Today's agreement is about getting euros from the ECB to the Polish banking sector if they need it, so that it won't have to use up its own reserves and deplete them."
The Polish central bank's reserves are above 50 billion euros.
Economists compared the deal to one struck between the NBP and the Swiss National Bank earlier this month.
That move was aimed at replenishing the supply of Swiss francs, which used to be popular among Poles taking out mortgages, to the Polish banking sector. As easy access to francs from abroad came to a halt due to the credit crunch, there was concern some banks could not refinance.
In the two weeks since the SNB swap agreement began, Polish banks tapped the NBP for some 500 million zlotys, or 200 million Swiss franc ($162.7 million). Poles have about 80 billion zlotys worth of mortgages in Swiss francs outstanding.
The zloty initially firmed a little after the ECB announcement, then fell back. At 1600 GMT it was down 1 percent since the announcement at 3.885 to the euro.

BRAVE FACE

The centre-right government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk initially tried to put a brave face on the global financial storm, insisting Poland will be shielded from it thanks to strong growth and low exposure of local banks to toxic assets.
But as the global turmoil began to hit the real economy hard the government began to take some action.
Parliament is working on a bill that would allow the government to guarantee some interbank loans and a bill allowing the government to recapitalise banks in a crisis is also on the agenda.
The head of the Polish Banks' Association told Reuters in an interview on Thursday that banks were beginning to loosen their lending policy after some drastically tightened it last month.
But Krzysztof Pietraszkiewicz cautioned that the easing of lending restrictions was unlikely to be significant and it would take many months before the shock of global turmoil worked its way through the system.

(Additional reporting by Piotr Skolimowski and Karolina Slowikowska; writing by Gareth Jones; editing by Patrick Graham)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8057612

[cyberstievie]

Thomson Financial News
UPDATE 1-Polish Oct output ekes out growth, sinks below fcast (http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/11/20/afx5720585.html)

11.20.08, 09:23 AM EST
pic

WARSAW, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Polish industrial output growth rose just 0.2 percent in October, way below forecasts of 2.2 percent as a euro zone slowdown bit into producers in central Europe's largest economy.

Output grew 0.2 percent year-on-year in October, well below an analysts' forecast of 2.2 percent and down from growth of 6.8 percent a month earlier. In month-on-month terms output rose 2.9 percent, while seasonally adjusted output grew 0.5 percent year-on-year, the statistics office said.

Analysts said the data was poor but still left the central bank room to resist calls from Polish business for immediate easing in interest rates. The bank has so far kept rates steady at 6 percent in the face of the global financial crisis, maintaining it is still concerned on inflation.

'This shows that the Polish economy is gradually slowing and that the slowdown in October was not only connected with fewer working days but also with lower industrial activity,' said Piotr Kalisz, senior economist at Citibank Handlowy.

'When it comes to the Monetary Policy Council's next meeting (next week), I think rates will be kept flat but policymakers will send a signal that a rate cut is probable in the near future. We expect a rate cut in December or January,' he added.

Poland's economy, which expanded by 6.7 percent in 2007 and is to grow by more than 5 percent this year, is widely expected to slow significantly in 2009 on the back of the global crisis.

But forecasts vary. The finance ministry has stuck to its forecast of 4.8 percent for next year, while the median forecast of analysts polled by Reuters puts 2009 growth at 3.5 percent.

Also on Thursday, the statistics office said producer prices rose 2.4 percent last month, as expected, while the central bank showed net inflation at 4.5 percent in October, above forecast.

In the minutes for its last October sitting published on Thursday, the central bank showed Monetary Policy Council members decided to keep rates flat, bucking a global trend of rate cuts, due to a combination of uncertainty over Poland's growth outlook and concerns over high inflation.

The Polish zloty and bonds were little changed immediately after Thursday's slew of data.

(Reporting by Adrian Krajewski, writing by Karolina Slowikowska; editing by Patrick Graham)

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/11/20/afx5720585.html

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DUSDPLN.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DUSDPLN.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DEURPLN.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DEURPLN.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

Key blames 'reckless' money men for crisis (http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/4768956a6009.html)

Prime Minister John Key has hit out at his former money trader colleagues, accusing some of helping trigger the global financial crisis with a "reckless" attitude to risk.

In his first formal address since being sworn in as Prime Minister on Wednesday, Key told a gathering of some 500 business leaders from 21 countries at the Apec meeting in Lima, Peru, that financial regulation was urgently needed to haul the world out of the credit crisis.

Key said the global economy had been fuelled by an unprecedented amount of credit obtained through "huge amounts of leveraging" by hedge funds and other financial institutions.

"These forces were in turn fuelled by excessive optimism in asset markets and a more relaxed, and in many case, recklessly complacent attitude to risk," Key told the chief executives.

Introduced to his audience as a former businessman and Merrill Lynch trader, Key went on to harshly criticise his former colleagues in the financial sector, saying hedge fund managers had become unregulated, opaque, and "globally unmanagable".

Hedge funds are essentially non-bank finance institutions that take positions in the market to bet on the rise or fall of currencies in order to lend the money on at a profit.

But Key, who made an estimated $50 million buying and selling the New Zealand dollar as a trader in the 1980s, ducked any blame for the current situation, saying the system was now radically different to when he was a trader. :lol:

"Investment banks (have evolved) into pseudo hedge funds with balance sheets and risk exposures well beyond what anyone would have previously deemed acceptable."

Key called for more global regulation of credit markets and also raised suggestions that world monetary policy as operated by central banks including New Zealand had been unable to stop the boom-and-bust cycle that had evolved, particularly in the housing sector.

But he also urged for fewer restrictions on trade. The new Prime Minister laid down a challenge for the leaders of the major G20 nations who met in Washington DC last weekend, saying if they did not follow through with commitments to push ahead with world trade talks the meeting would be judged "a political failure".

Key said those leaders – including some of those that he will meet for the first time at Apec this weekend – had "put their reputations on the line" and would have to "walk the talk" at this weekend's summit and over the next six months.

Asked after his speech whether he was calling his former colleagues "cowboys", Key said there was no question that they had taken irresponsible risks that had helped cause some of the crises the world was now facing.

Key's hard-hitting speech was not the one the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had originally drafted for him. It appeared to be well received by the audience, and Key later answered follow-up questions without incident.

The New Zealand Prime Minister is to meet Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono this morning (New Zealand Time) and the American Chamber of Commerce this afternoon.

He is dining with Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd this evening.

The Apec leaders' summit begins tomorrow.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/4768956a6009.html

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=3m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DUSDNZD.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DUSDNZD.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=3m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DEURNZD.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DEURNZD.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

New Zealand market sheds 2.5% (http://www.rttnews.com/Content/AsianMtUpdates.aspx?Node=B3&Id=782304)

11/21/2008 2:13 AM ET

(RTTNews) - The New Zealand stock market closed in negative territory for a fifth day on Friday. After a weak start, tracking Wall Street's plunge to multi-year lows overnight, the market extended its losses amid growing fears about a global economic slowdown. The benchmark NZX 50 index closed down 66.6 points or 2.5% at 2,578.1 after falling 2.3% on Thursday. The broader NZX All Capital index shed 63.5 points or 2.4% to 2622.0.

In the currency market, the New Zealand dollar sank to six-year lows against the greenback. The kiwi finished the domestic session at US$0.5288 compared to Thursday's close of US$0.5409. In intraday trading, the local currency hit a low of US$0.5200.

U.S. stocks plunged for a second straight day Thursday to multi-year lows on the back of a worse-than-expected jobless claims report and worries that a bailout of automakers will be delayed. The major averages all closed sharply lower, with the Dow and the Nasdaq ending the day at their worst closing level since March 2003 and the S&P 500 falling to its lowest closing level since April 1997. The Dow closed down 445.0 points or 5.6% at 7,552.3, the Nasdaq shed 70.3 points or 5.1% to 1,316.1 and the S&P 500 dropped 54.1 points or 6.7% to 752.4.

Oil prices tumbled for a sixth day on Friday to a three-and-a-half year low below US$49 a barrel as recession fears threatened to reduce energy demand. At 00:53 a.m. ET, crude oil futures for January delivery were quoted at US$49.66 a barrel, down 24 cents. The December contract expired on Thursday at US$49.62 a barrel, down US$4.

In economic news, Statistics New Zealand reported that short-term overseas visitor arrivals decreased 3% year-over-year to 173,900 in October and that the total value of electronic card spending in New Zealand rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in October compared to a 0.8% increase in September.

Among market leaders, Telecom fell 3.0%, Fletcher Building lost 1.1%, and Contact Energy plunged 6.0%.

Freight and logistics company Mainfreight dropped 2.6% after it posted a 9.5% increase in half-year net profit of NZ$17.2 million before non-recurring items. According to brokers, the result was below their expectation.

Other major losers included Sky City 3.6%, Nuplex 4.2%, Port of Tauranga 4.7%, New Zealand Oil & Gas and Sanford 1.7% each, Auckland Airport 1.8%, and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare 1.0%.

Bucking the trend, Tower rose 0.7% after the company posted a 17% rise in full-year net profit after tax to NZ$40.5 million. Other gainers were Cavalier 2.4%, Hallenstein Glasson 2.2%, Ryman Healthcare 3.7%, Rakon 3.0%, and Vector 1.0%.

by RTT Staff Writer

http://www.rttnews.com/Content/AsianMtUpdates.aspx?Node=B3&Id=782304

[cyberstievie]

South African Growth to Slow to Decade Low of 1.9% (Update1) (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=a8jKTrHiTrSU&refer=africa)

By Nasreen Seria

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- South Africa's Bureau for Economic Research cut its economic growth forecast for next year to 1.9 percent, the slowest pace in more than a decade, as the global credit crisis reduces exports.

The growth forecast was lowered from the 3 percent estimated in July, the bureau, based at the University of Stellenbosch, near Cape Town, said in an e-mailed statement today.

The price of platinum has plunged 44 percent since Sept. 1, cutting revenues from South Africa's biggest export. The global financial crisis is also crimping demand for other goods, adding to a slump in economic growth after six interest rate increases since June last year cut consumer spending.

``Even before the almost unprecedented panic gripped world financial markets in September and October, the South African economy was already in the midst of a cyclical downturn,'' the bureau said. The ``likelihood of a South African recession has increased.''

The bureau's growth forecast for next year, which would be the weakest expansion since 1998, is lower than the government's prediction of 3 percent. The bureau kept its 3.3 percent growth forecast for 2008.

A weaker rand is adding to inflation pressure, helping to offset a drop in oil prices, which have plunged by more than half since reaching a record $145.29 a barrel in New York on July 3. The rand has slumped 35 percent against the dollar this year, the second-worst performer of 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

Inflation

Inflation will probably average 8 percent in 2009 and only drop into the 3 percent to 6 percent target range by the first quarter of 2010, the bureau said. The inflation rate slowed for the first time in more than a year in September, dropping to 13 percent from a record 13.6 percent in the previous month.

Interest rates are unlikely to drop until at least the second half of next year because of concern about funding the current account deficit, the bureau said. The central bank will probably lower its benchmark interest rate of 12 percent by 1.5 percentage points in 2009 and 1 percentage point in 2010, it added.

The current account gap, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, which has exceeded 7 percent of gross domestic product since the second half of last year, has mainly been financed by foreign investment in stocks and bonds.

Last Updated: November 20, 2008 09:53 EST

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=a8jKTrHiTrSU&refer=africa

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=3m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DUSDZAR.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DUSDZAR.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=3m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DEURZAR.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DEURZAR.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

South African Q3 GDP growth seen lower, inflation to brake (http://africa.reuters.com/business/news/usnJOE4AK087.html)

Fri 21 Nov 2008, 8:09 GMT
By Stella Mapenzauswa

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africa's economic growth may have slowed to a 10-year low in the third quarter of 2008 as high interest rates knock the key manufacturing and retail sectors, a Reuters survey showed on Thursday.

An anticipated brake in annual consumer inflation for the second month in a row, after a year-long upward cycle, should also back the case for the central bank to start cutting interest rates from early next year.

Gross domestic product (GDP) expansion has averaged 5 percent over the last four years but the Treasury has forecast growth to slow to 3.7 percent this year and 3.0 percent in 2009.

GDP rebounded to 4.9 percent in the second quarter of 2008 on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis compared to the previous three months, largely due to a recovery in the manufacturing and mining sectors that had been hit by an electricity crisis in the first quarter.

But 18 economists polled by Reuters believe growth will stutter to a consensus 0.3 percent in the third quarter, on a sharp slowdown in manufacturing and mining output, and as retail sales sag under the weight of 5 percentage points in interest rate hikes since June 2006.

Five analysts expect negative quarter-on-quarter growth.

On an unadjusted basis, growth should also be lower at 3.0 percent year-on-year compared with 4.5 percent in the second quarter, consensus showed.

"While South Africa should avoid a full-blown recession, Q3 08 may even surpass the Q1 08 GDP print in painting a picture of all-round economic weakness," said Razia Khan, Africa head of research at Standard Chartered bank in London.

EARLY RATE CUT?

Khan and other analysts said this, as well as signs that inflation was on a downward trend, could see the central bank cut interests rates in February 2009, or possibly even as early as next month.

The Reuters poll showed the targeted CPIX consumer inflation easing further to 12.5 percent year-on-year in October, after braking to 13 percent in September.

CPIX inflation, which strips out mortgage costs, has persisted above the top end of the central bank's 3-6 percent target band since April 2007.

Headline inflation should also ease to 12.4 percent on an annualised basis in October, after recording an increase of 13.1 percent the previous month.

The central bank will shift its target to a re-weighted headline number from CPIX next year, a move which should result in lower inflation.

"The disinflationary trend is entrenched, and the market's focus will rather be on the new calculations due for implementation in ... 2009, and developments in the rand and commodity prices," said Barnard Jacobs Mellet chief economist Elna Moolman.

A weak and volatile rand currency was the biggest risk to inflation, although its impact would be offset by lower commodity prices and a widening output gap, she said.

The currency, which traded around 10.58 against the dollar on Thursday, has weakened over 35 percent this year, as investors dump risky assets in the face of a global credit crisis that has hit world economies.

The Reuters poll showed that growth in private sector credit extension (PSCE) should come in lower at 15.4 percent year-on-year in October, from the previous 16.42 percent, lending further credence to the argument for a rate cut.

Forecasts for the trade balance were for a slightly narrower shortfall of 6 billion rand in October compared to 7.1 billion rand the month before.

The gap should stay wide in coming months as falling commodity prices undermine South Africa's export earnings, said Mike Schussler, an economist at T-Sec Securities.

"The trade balance is likely to get worse before it gets better in about 12 months times as commodity prices have completely collapsed," he said.

http://africa.reuters.com/business/news/usnJOE4AK087.html

[cyberstievie]

RGE Monitor's Newsletter
Date: Wed, 17 Dec 2008 01:00:21 -0600

In today’s newsletter we focus on currency dynamics around the globe.

Does the U.S. dollar’s December slide mean the USD has passed its peak? Most likely not. The turn-of-the-year profit-taking on long USD positions creates a near-term blip in the dollar's uptrend but doesn't alter the medium-term trend of appreciation versus the euro. The four horseman of the carry trade apocalypse - Deleveraging, Risk Aversion, Growth Differentials and the Dollar's Reserve Currency Status - would need to retreat before we see a sustained pullback in the EUR/USD from the slide to near-parity ($1.10-$1.30). Governments, banks and other firms are still scrambling for dollars to repay their USD-denominated debt while signs of global recession and credit crisis spur on the flight-to-safety in U.S. Treasuries. European sovereign bonds offer an alternative but inferior safe haven because of the European bond market’s fragmentation and exposure to emerging Europe. More aggressive policy response in the U.S. compared to Europe, could bring the U.S. out of a recession faster than the Eurozone (though growth will most likely remain subdued for some years to come), supporting the dollar against the euro. In the longer term, however, once risk appetite revives, the greenback might lose its defenses in wake of worries surrounding U.S. public debt expansion and the potential inflationary effect of quantitative easing.

The Japanese yen hit a 13-year high against the dollar in mid-December when it broke below 90 per dollar. It may hold the distinction of being the only currency apart from the Swiss Franc that could appreciate against the dollar in early 2009 due to carry trade unwinding and repatriation of Japanese funds invested overseas. The recent surge in the yen is being driven by carry trade unwinding as well as a substantial shrinkage in US-Japan rate differentials. While there is room for the JPY to strengthen in the short-term, Japan’s increasingly gloomy macroeconomic outlook raises questions about its continued strengthening over the medium-to-long term.

The rest of Asian and the Pacific currencies are losing ground against the dollar. Faced with slowing growth and exports as well as withdrawal of foreign capital, many Asian currencies have fallen against the dollar, with those with current account deficits like South Korea and India hardest hit. Despite central bank intervention, the currencies of India, S. Korea, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia have depreciated recently as global risk aversion contributed to outflows from EMs.

Declines of around 20% for these currencies may have contributed to some slackening by Asia’s other strong currency, the Chinese yuan. After appreciating against the dollar at the beginning of 2008, and tracking it closely through spring, summer and most of the fall, the yuan is now depreciating slightly against the dollar as Chinese growth slows and the Chinese try to temper the 25% appreciation against the Euro since mid 2008. Last weekend’s powwow between China, Japan and Korea which followed the Japanese and Chinese extension of credit lines to support the Won, may be the first step in greater exchange rate coordination within Asia and may help to support some faltering Asian currencies at least in the short-term. Meanwhile the dollar’s rally is putting the Hong Kong dollar under pressure when Hong Kong is in recession, despite the strong support for its peg from authorities.

The Korean won has been victim of the selloff of emerging market assets in an environment of acute risk aversion. South Korea gives the world an example of a net creditor in a currency crisis. The won’s downfall also has its roots in Korea’s high ratio of short-term external debt to foreign reserves (60% at end-2007). After international capital markets essentially shut down, Korean banks and firms have sought dollars to repay their external debt or sell off assets to do so – raising demand for USD versus KRW. This deleveraging, plus the export slowdown and portfolio outflows from Korean equity and debt markets, might keep the won weakening versus the USD until late 2009. The current account will likely improve if commodity prices remain low and import demand falls, but capital outflows will outweigh the effect of the current account surplus on the won.

Free floating commodity currencies like the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars and the Norwegian Krone have followed their commodity exports values down - together the fall in commodity prices and currency corrections of 20-30% have eroded their terms of trade. Despite the chance that they may already have overcorrected, with further rate cuts to come, these currencies could slide further. And so might the South African rand, especially now that the Reserve Bank has joined the cutting cycle. But these currencies might not gain much from any prolonged dollar weakness unless commodities pick up much steam as all of these economies are facing sharp slowdowns at best and recessions at worst.

Other fuel exporters like Russia and Nigeria were reluctant to let their currencies slide and in Russia’s case spent significant portions of their ample reserves to avert it. But with Russia’s current account about to shift to deficit as early as this quarter and its reserves falling by almost 30%, it is now allowing more frequent 1% devaluations. The rouble may fall another 20% at current price points through Q109, meaning that Russia’s fx-denominated debt may become an even greater burden for the government especially as the devaluation expectation is contributing to retail and corporate deposit withdrawals from the banks – expect to see more declines in fx reserves. Nigeria too is allowing the Naira to shift downwards and the Kazakh Tenge may not be far behind. Meanwhile the dollar peggers among the oil exporters, especially the GCC, are no longer facing the appreciation pressure they suffered earlier this year even as the dollar’s rally has increased their purchasing power. In all of these countries, inflation is slowly coming down, even if it remains stubbornly in the double digits and weakening local currencies offset falling global price declines.

Most MENA currencies are pegged either to the dollar or to a basket which includes exposure to the euro - these pegs are expected to remain in place. However, the region's more flexible currencies have been allowing more depreciation. Egypt's pound plunged from a five-year high of LE 5.31 per USD in August 08 to a rate of almost LE 5.53 in December 08 and may continue depreciating in 2009 as Egyptian – and global growth – slows and Egypt's balance of payments continues to be weak. With inflationary pressures easing, the Central bank of Egypt (CBE) may do little to prevent the pound’s depreciation in hopes of boosting growth via cheaper exports, increasing tourism and Suez Canal revenues and attracting more FDI. Israel's monetary easing comes as the country is witnessing a significant growth slowdown - another rate cut on December 29 may further weaken the shekel. With many of Israel's export partners faltering, a weaker shekel has been 'desired' by the BOI for some time. However, government support of the financial sector may cause intermittent strengthening of the shekel.

Eastern European currencies are coming under pressure, in part due to spill-over from global market turmoil and in part due to domestic fundamentals. Many analysts are bearish on all CEE currencies given these economies’ heavy dependence on capital inflows. Nevertheless, some economies (i.e. Czech Republic and Poland) seem better placed than others (i.e. Hungary and Romania) and this should feed through to their currencies. Similarly, despite steep devaluation on the Ukrainian Hryvnia, pressure continues given its large current account and reliance on steel exports.

Devaluations in the works in the Baltics? The currency pegs in the Baltic economies, particularly Latvia’s, have been coming under pressure recently. Given their large external imbalances and the global financial crisis, the question has arisen as to whether these countries will be forced to give up their currency pegs to the euro. Many analysts, however, see no appetite for a devaluation as the high degree of foreign currency borrowing in these countries mean a devaluation could undermine financial stability. Moreover, the possibility of a speculative attack is limited by the shallow financial markets in the region.

The Turkish lira is among most risk-sensitive of EM currencies. The TRY shows a strong correlation to carry trade baskets given Turkey’s high interest rates and is therefore sensitive to unwinding. In the near-term, expectations of an IMF deal, as well as global risk appetite and monetary policy moves, are the factors determining the currency’s path. Analysts expect the lira to depreciate further in next 6 to 12 months given Turkey's large current-account deficit, increased global risk aversion, and sluggish foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows since beginning of the year.

Moving to Northern Europe, economic recession, vulnerability of Swedish banks (due to their exposure to sharply slowing Baltic economies) and the rate cycle have been weighing on the SEK, which hit record lows against the euro in December. Yet, a number of analysts now see the SEK strengthening over the next 12 months from its current levels.

In Latin America, the Brazilian Real (BRL) remains a source of concern on the inflation front, continuing to show a weakening bias after having depreciated over 30% in the last three months. While Brazil’s external indicators suggest the currency is overshooting, the authorities cannot ignore its persistent weakening. Estimates of the historical pass-through from BRL movements to domestic consumer prices stand at around 8-10% after approximately one year.

The Mexican peso (MXN) seems to be stabilizing after a volatile adjustment phase that affected energy-linked emerging-market economies. Interest rate differentials, banking sector systemic health, a swift government response to the global financial crisis, still large central bank FX reserves, and the reciprocal currency arrangement between the US and Mexican central banks have been MXN-supportive.

The Chilean peso (CLP) has discounted a sharp contraction in trade-linked currency flows, despite a relatively solid fiscal position. Interest rate differentials are not a CLP supporting factor in spite of the fact that the central bank has earmarked the fight against inflation as a key priority. The sharp commodity price adjustment anticipates a weakening prospect for Chile’s export sector.

The Peruvian sol (PEN) has been quite stable, trading at an average rate of 3.04 per USD over the past month; during the recent wave of financial turmoil it has also experienced the lowest volatility amongst peer-group floating currencies within Latin America. The central bank will continue to heavily intervene in the foreign currency market if need be. The USD/PEN is expected to close this year at 3.00.

In Venezuela, the government has stashed away substantial funds during the windfall oil years. With prices falling bellow USD60pb and local inflation rampant the government fiscal accounts remain vulnerable. This will lead the government to devalue the VEF currency sharply in Q1, likely by 30%.

In Argentina, the central bank is letting the peso devalue in a gradual and controlled manner. The central bank is managing the slide in an effort to avoid further eroding investor confidence in the peso.

[cyberstievie]

Pound Breaches 98 Pence per Euro for First Time on Rate Bets

Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The pound breached 98 pence per euro for the first time, edging closer to parity with the common currency, on speculation the Bank of England will cut interest rates faster than the European Central Bank.

The pound also slid to an all-time low versus a currency basket of its main trading partners. The U.K. central bank reduced its main rate 350 basis points this year to limit the fallout from the global financial crisis. The ECB will end 2008 with its key rate 150 basis points lower than at the start, with some policy makers indicating they may be reluctant to cut borrowing costs again next month.

“The Bank of England is making it clear rates will go close to zero in due course, whereas the ECB is saying hang on, we may not cut in January,” said Brian Hilliard, director of economic research at Societe Generale SA in London. “In the race to zero, the Bank of England will win.”

The pound weakened as much as 1.4 percent to 98.03 pence per euro, before trading at 97.90 pence by 4:46 p.m. in London, from 96.71 pence yesterday. The U.K. currency is 25 percent lower versus the euro this year, the worst among 16 most-actively traded peers and its poorest annual performance since the debut of the European common currency in 1999. Against the dollar, the pound was at $1.4416, from $1.4392 yesterday, when it fell to the lowest level since April 2002.

The British economy is in its first recession in 17 years. The government nationalized Northern Rock Plc and Bradford & Bingley Plc and is buying stakes in HBOS Plc, Lloyds TSB Group Plc and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc to bolster the lenders.

“Sterling is out of favor,” said Neil Mellor, a currency strategist in London at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. “It’s declining on the basis of interest-rate differentials. Everyone expects rates to head toward zero.”

Bank of England policy makers voted unanimously this month to cut the benchmark rate to 2 percent and refrained from a bigger reduction on concern it may prompt an “excessive” drop in the pound, according to the minutes of the Dec. 4 decision.

The U.K.’s benchmark rate may be reduced to 0.5 percent, “with zero rates being very possible,” Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight, wrote in a note today. “It is also very possible that the Bank of England will engage in some forms of quantitative easing in 2009.”

So-called quantitative easing can weaken a currency by increasing its supply in the financial system. It may take the form of purchasing bad debt from companies and accepting a greater variety of collateral, Bank of New York Mellon’s Mellor said.

Short sterling futures contracts maturing in March fell by 62 basis points since the Bank of England decision, indicating investors are betting on a deeper cut in rates.

Parity between the euro and the pound is “inevitable,” Mellor said. “Short-sterling markets are factoring in around a 50-basis-point move before March, so a continued ratcheting down of rate expectations should undermine sterling further.”

U.K. mortgage approvals and manufacturing data due Jan. 2 “may be the catalyst for parity,” said Ashraf Laidi, chief foreign exchange strategist at CMC Markets in London. “Euro- pound is less than 2 pence away from parity and thin liquidity makes it relatively easy to breach above that.”

The pound dropped to the lowest level against a currency index comprised of its main trading partners, according to a Bank of England gauge, which was created in 1990. The reading was 73.3, from 73.7 yesterday.

The British currency may be poised to rebound against the euro, according to its relative strength index. The measure fell to 19, from 21 yesterday. The last time it was less than 20, on Dec. 18, the pound jumped 1.9 percent against the euro the next day, snapping a three-day decline.

U.K. government bonds rose, pushing the yield on the two- year gilt down eight basis points to 1.08 percent. The 4.75 percent security due June 2010 gained 0.11, or 1.1 pounds per 1,000-pound ($1,441) face amount, to 105.21. The 10-year gilt yield was little changed at 3.08 percent. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Last Updated: December 30, 2008 11:58 EST

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&ind0=MACD&ind1=RSI&&currency=&&lSyms=DGBPEUR.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DGBPEUR.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

25.01.2009
Britisches Pfund: Der perfekte Sturm
von Michael Maisch

Dem Pfund geht es nicht gut. Die Investoren sorgen sich um die ausufernden Staatsfinanzen, das Defizit in der Leistungsbilanz und die Stabilität des Finanzsektors. Gegenüber dem Euro hat das Pfund im Zuge der Kreditkrise bereits rund 25 Prozent an Wert verloren. Wie schlimm ist die Lage?

LONDON. Wer sich trotz Finanzkrise noch einen Sinn für Ironie bewahrt hat, der findet in Großbritannien derzeit einige hübsche Perlen. Es ist nicht ohne, wenn ausgerechnet die Royal Bank of Scotland warnt, dass das Pfund in einem "perfekten Sturm" stecke und den Investoren ans Herz legt, sich von ihren Beständen zu trennen.

Schließlich ist die RBS nicht ganz schuldlos an diesem "Sturm". Immerhin musste das Institut vom britischen Staat gerettet werden und erwartet mit 28 Mrd. Pfund den höchsten Verlust in der Unternehmensgeschichte der Insel - keine guten Nachrichten für das Sterling.

Recht haben die Währungsstrategen der RBS aber trotzdem. Dem Pfund geht es nicht gut. Die Investoren sorgen sich um die ausufernden Staatsfinanzen, das Defizit in der Leistungsbilanz und die Stabilität des Finanzsektors. Im Vergleich zum Dollar notiert die britische Währung derzeit so niedrig wie seit acht Jahren nicht mehr, und zum Yen liegt das Sterling auf einem Rekordtief. Gegenüber dem Euro hat das Pfund im Zuge der Kreditkrise bereits rund 25 Prozent an Wert verloren.

Noch drastischer als die RBS sieht der einflussreiche Hedge-Fonds-Manager Jim Rogers die Lage der britischen Währung. Er rief die Anleger auf, alles zu verkaufen, was sie in Pfund halten. "Ich würde kein Geld in Großbritannien investieren." Auch das ist nicht ohne Ironie, immerhin hat Rogers einst gemeinsam mit der Investorenlegende George Soros den Quantum-Fonds gegründet. Und Soros war es, der am berüchtigten "schwarzen Mittwoch" im September 1992 das Pfund mit einer spekulativen Attacke aus dem europäische Währungssystem drängte.

Wie schlimm sieht die Lage des Pfundes heute aus? Im vergangenen Jahr hat sich das britische Haushaltsdefizit auf über 50 Mrd. Pfund und die Neuverschuldung auf über 71 Mrd. Dollar Pfund verdoppelt. Das sind die schlechtesten Haushaltsdaten seit dem Ende des Zweiten Weltkrieges. Verschärft wird die Lage durch die aktuelle Bankenkrise, weil die Anstrengungen zur Rettung des Finanzsektors den Haushalt zusätzlich belasten. Die Investoren befürchten, dass die Regierung bei einer Verschärfung der Krise weitere Geldhäuser oder sogar den gesamten Bankensektor verstaatlichen muss.

Das hätte weitreichende Konsequenzen. Die Analysten der Investmentbank Merrill Lynch machen folgende Rechnung auf: Müsste der gesamte Banksektor verstaatlicht werden, gingen vier Bill. Pfund Bilanzwerte auf den Fiskus über. Wären davon nur 15 Prozent ausfallgefährdet, würde dem Staat eine Finanzierungslücke von 600 Mrd. Pfund drohen - ein Drittel der jährlichen Wirtschaftsleistung.

Inzwischen sorgen sich viele Investoren ernsthaft um die Kreditwürdigkeit des Landes. Die Skeptiker fürchten sogar, dass die Insel ihre erstklassige Bonitätsbewertung "AAA" verlieren könnte. Und Untergangspropheten fragen sich, ob der britische Haushalt die Bankenkrise überhaupt verkraften kann.

Wie tief kann das Pfund angesichts dieser wenig erfreulichen Ausgangslage noch fallen? Die Analysten der Bank of America gehen davon aus, dass die britische Währung in den kommenden Wochen die Parität zum Euro testen wird. Das hält auch Michael Klawitter, Währungsstratege der Investmentbank Dresdner Kleinwort, für möglich. Sehr viel tiefer wird es seiner Meinung nach aber nicht gehen. "Das Pfund hat schon sehr stark abgewertet, und schließlich stehen die anderen großen Währungen derzeit auch nicht gerade glänzend dar.

http://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anlegerakademie/britisches-pfund-der-perfekte-sturm;2131921;0

[cyberstievie]

Turkish markets firm on IMF hopes after cbank comments
Mon Jan 26, 2009 6:25am EST

ISTANBUL, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Turkish markets gained on Monday and equities outperformed emerging market peers as investors digested news from the central bank governor that a statement was to be made soon on Turkey's deal with the International Monetary Fund.

The lira <IYIX=> was trading 1.7 percent firmer at 1.6450 against the dollar on the interbank market from Friday's close of 1.6740.

Central Bank Governor Durmus Yilmaz said on Sunday Turkey will make a statement soon on a planned loan accord with the IMF and a letter of intent should be sent to the lender before local elections in March.

The deal has been seen as vital to reviving the country's ailing economy. Growth fell to a six-year low in the third quarter and some economists see a contraction in 2008 full-year growth. An IMF team has been in Ankara for two weeks for talks on an accord to replace the previous $10 billion standby deal that expired in May.

The main ISE National 100 index .XU100 rose 2.09 percent to 25,299.37 points after the first session, following a 4.2 percent fall last week. Turkish equities outperformed the MSCI index of emerging market shares .MSCIEF, which was up 0.94 percent.

Industrial stocks were among the leaders after Yilmaz said on Monday that the Turkish economy may see a partial recovery in the second half of 2009.

"We expect the recovery to be gradual, as it will take time to fully restore consumer confidence in the aftermath of the most serious global crisis in decades," Yilmaz said while announcing the details of a central bank inflation report.

Shares in steel producer Erdemir (EREGL.IS: Quote, Profile, Research) were 4.76 percent higher at 3.52 lira and Dogus Automotive (DOAS.IS: Quote, Profile, Research) was 5.52 percent higher at 1.91 lira after the announcements.

"All of the industrial companies are moving today because of growth expectations. The central bank's comments on economic growth in the second-half of the year is behind these stocks' rising today," said Cemal Demirtas, analyst at Oyak Securities.

The yield on the benchmark Nov. 3, 2010 bond <0#TRTSYSUM=IS> fell to 15.10 percent from a 15.45 percent close on Friday. (Reporting by Thomas Grove and Ayla Jean Yackley; Editing by Victoria Main)

http://www.reuters.com/article/asiaCompanyAndMarkets/idINLQ22788420090126

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UPDATE 2-Turkey-IMF talks suspended, but "will resume" - Simsek
Mon Jan 26, 2009 2:22pm ES

By Hatice Aydogdu and Selcuk Gokoluk

ANKARA, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Talks between the International Monetary Fund and Turkey over a major new loan deal aimed at supporting the country in the face of a global financial crisis, have been temporarily suspended, the Economy Minister said.

Turkish business leaders and investors have long called for a loan deal to stabilise the economy, which ratings agency Moody's expects to contract by 0.8 percent in 2009 after years of stellar growth.

"After the removal of some disagreements on remaining issues talks will resume at one point," Economy Minister Mehmet Simsek told reporters on Monday in a surprise announcement.

"Since we have not completed our work on some points, (the talks) have been suspended for a short while, or a while," Simsek said.

Financial markets were expecting the imminent announcement of a standby loan deal of as much as $25 billion. The lira <IYIX=> currency rose sharply against the dollar on Monday to close at around 1.6180 ahead of the Simsek's statement, after which it fell back to 1.6400 in after-hours trade.

Simsek said the government did not favour delaying a loan deal with the IMF until after municipal elections in March. But he declined to give details on the size of any possible IMF loan or the duration of an agreement.

"Our intention from the beginning was to give the programme its final shape in the shortest time possible and implement it, and this attitude is continuing. An attitude focused on elections is out of question," Simsek said.

An IMF team has been in the capital Ankara since Jan. 8 for what analysts said was already a long duration for such talks with authorities.

The IMF team would leave Turkey soon, government sources, who declined to be named, told Reuters.

"A deal needs to be wrapped up in the shortest time possible to limit the damage on the Turkish economy from the global crisis," said Credit Suisse economist Berna Bayazitoglu.

"There is still a chance that the talks might be wrapped up in February, but the vagueness of the (Simsek) statement increases the risks that the agreement may be reached later rather than sooner," Bayazitoglu said.

A previous three-year $10 billion standby loan deal expired in May. A series of loan deals helped Turkey come out of a steep 2001 financial crisis and resulted in several years of annual economic growth at around 7 percent.

A senior source with knowledge of the IMF-Turkey talks told Reuters: "The issues on (which Turkey and the IMF disagreed) are not insurmountable. Turkey will reach an agreement with the IMF."

SURPRISE

The announcement came as a surprise as Simsek had been expected to make an announcement of a deal before heading to the Davos economic summit with Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan.

Central Bank Governor Durmus Yilmaz said on Sunday an announcement on the IMF deal would be made soon and a letter of intent sent to the Fund before local elections in March.

Simsek said in a written statement that Turkey and the IMF had reached a general agreement on several issues but that talks needed to continue on structural reforms.

"I can't see what structural reforms can be a point of disagreement, most key ones have already been approved by the government. This looks to me to be about fiscal reform and that Turkey's fiscal position may be worse than the government has wanted to admit," an banker, who declined to be named, said.

Until recently the government was reluctant to opt for another major IMF loan deal, which usually come with spending constraints for borrowing countries.

But the government then changed track since the world financial situation worsened. Turkey will have a 2009 financing gap of up to $30 billion and a new IMF programme is expected to help ease investor concerns about Turkey's external balances.

Turkey's outstanding debt to the IMF is $8.5 billion, the latest Treasury data shows.

A series of emerging market countries like Ukraine, Iceland and Hungary have signed loan deals with the global lender. (Writing by Paul de Bendern; Editing by Ron Askew)

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSLQ53911120090126?sp=true

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IMF likely to return to Turkey next month
Thu Jan 29, 2009 11:54am EST

By Mike Dolan

DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - Turkey and the IMF are expected to resume talks on a major stand-by loan deal in Ankara in coming weeks if minor issues are resolved, Economy Minister Mehmet Simsek said on Thursday.

Talks between the IMF and the Turkish government were suspended on Monday for 10 days in an attempt to clear remaining obstacles to a deal, expected at around $25 billion to help EU-applicant Turkey weather the global financial crisis.

"We're making progress. There is broad agreement on many aspects of the program," Simsek told Reuters at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

"Once the outstanding issues are resolved and if there is an agreement on them, then most likely we'll invite the (IMF) mission back at some point over the next weeks," Simsek said.

"The idea is to get it done as soon as possible but obviously it takes two to tango and I can't give a definitive date."

IMF spokesman David Hawley told reporters in Washington that an IMF mission, which left Ankara on Tuesday after talks were halted, was likely to return next month for more talks, particularly related to medium-term fiscal reform.

Earlier Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan cast doubt on a swift deal with the global lender, telling reporters in Davos it was not "the end of the world" if no deal was struck.

Analysts said they still expected a deal to be ultimately signed and that Erdogan's latest words are typical of his aggressive negotiating style.

Erdogan held talks with IMF First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky on Wednesday, which both sides said were productive.

"We are having broad discussion and we are making progress," Lipsky told Reuters in Davos.

The Turkish lira and stocks gave little reaction to the comments, although traders said the lira was being supported by a foreign bank heavily buying the currency.

"He (Erdogan) clearly recognizes there would be significant negative economic repercussions without an IMF deal. And that would hurt his party's chances at the upcoming election. It would be very difficult for Turkey to walk away from a deal at this point," said Yarkin Cebeci, an economist at JP Morgan.

BUSINESS WANTS DEAL

Turkish business leaders and investors urgently want a stand-by agreement to stabilize the $700 billion economy which has seen a sharp slow-down in growth, after a previous $10 billion loan deal expired in May.

Critics say Erdogan, who makes all key decisions in the government including on the IMF, has played hardball with the IMF as he wants as favorable a deal as possible ahead of municipal elections in March.

The IMF has been pushing for tighter fiscal policy and a higher primary surplus while the government has wanted to use IMF money to stimulate economic growth.

The government fears that too strict austerity measures imposed by the IMF would exacerbate the economic slowdown and destroy more jobs, analysts and government sources say.

The IMF's tight-belt policies are deeply unpopular in the emerging market country of 71 million.

The latest round of talks between the IMF and the government in Ankara, which officially began on January 8, were halted on Monday after Erdogan rejected some conditions for the loan deal.

Turkey is not in the same financial situation that has forced other emerging markets to seek IMF aid, but a new deal would help soothe investors as the country needs to roll over debt estimated at $100 billion and a current account deficit seen around $25 billion in 2009.

(Additional reporting by Natsuko Waki in Davos, Alexandra Hudson in Istanbul and Lesley Wroughton in Washington)

(Writing by Paul de Bendern in Istanbul; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

http://www.reuters.com/article/gc08/idUSTRE50S24J20090129?sp=true

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Investorenflucht
Ungarns Forint sinkt auf Allzeittief
von Stefan Menzel

Die weltweite Wirtschaftskrise trifft Ungarn mit Härte. Die europäische Entwicklungsbank EBRD erwartet für das osteuropäische Land für 2009 einen Rückgang des Bruttoinlandsprodukt um zwei Prozent. Internationale Investoren schreckt das ab. Sie ziehen sich aus ungarischen Anlagen zurück - und drücken damit die Landeswährung Forint immer tiefer.

WIEN. Die wirtschaftlichen Probleme in Ungarn setzen auch die Landeswährung Forint massiv unter Druck. Am Freitagmorgen notierte die Währung in Budapest mit 298 Forint für einen Euro und erreichte damit ein neues Allzeittief. Internationale Anleger stoßen Forint-Anlagen ab und reagieren damit auf die wachsenden Sorgen über die Lage der ungarischen Volkswirtschaft.

Die europäische Entwicklungsbank EBRD in London hatte zu Wochenbeginn ihre Wachstumsprognose für Ungarn noch einmal deutlich zurückgenommen. Statt der noch im November angenommenen leichten Zunahme von 0,2 Prozent wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt von Ungarn in diesem Jahr real wahrscheinlich um zwei Prozent schrumpfen, nimmt die EBRD jetzt an. Ungarische Unternehmen reagieren darauf verstärkt mit Entlassungen und reduzieren ihre Fertigung. Ungarn leidet besonders darunter, dass die Exporte nach Westeuropa fallen.

Die ungarische Regierung hat wegen ihres vergleichsweise hohen Haushaltsdefizits nur geringe Möglichkeiten, mit größeren Konjunkturprogrammen auf die schlechte Wirtschaftslage zu reagieren. Der sozialdemokratische Ministerpräsident Ferenc Gyurcsany kündigte am Donnerstagabend eine Steuerreform an, die die direkte Belastung der Einkommen mindern soll. Die Regierung will den Einkommensteuertarif senken und verzichtet auf Einnahmen in Höhe in etwa 3,5 Milliarden Euro. Als Ausgleich will sie die Mehrwertsteuer erhöhen und Sozialausgaben senken. Gyurcsany hofft, dass damit Arbeitsplätze erhalten werden können - weil die Kosten für Arbeit insgesamt fallen.

Ungarn war das erste osteuropäische Land, das im vergangenen Jahr ein Hilfspaket von Internationalem Währungsfonds (IWF) und EU bekommen hat. Insgesamt 20 Milliarden Euro werden dem Land zur Verfügung gestellt. Da sich die wirtschaftliche Lage weiter verschlechtert, hält sich in Budapest hartnäckig das Gerücht, das Land könnte ein weiteres Milliardenpaket benötigen.

http://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/devisen/ungarns-forint-sinkt-auf-allzeittief;2137461

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Hungary’s Forint Posts Worst Monthly Loss, Tumbles to a Record
By Yon Pulkrabek and Ewa Krukowska

Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Hungary’s forint dropped to a record against the euro, posting its biggest monthly loss since the introduction of the common currency, on evidence the economic slowdown that triggered an international bailout is worsening.

The forint weakened as much as 2.8 percent after the nation’s statistics office yesterday said unemployment rose to the highest in nine months and producer-price growth slowed more than forecast. The currency dropped 11 percent against the euro this month, the worst performer in eastern Europe, headed toward a key level of 300.

Hungary became the first European Union member to seek international aid to avert a default last year, prompting emergency loans from the EU, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The government proposed Jan. 29 a 1 trillion-forint ($4.6 billion) tax overhaul, including cuts, to spur growth as the economy heads toward its worst recession in 15 years.

“There’s every possibility that the forint will break through 300 per euro in the next few days,” said Jon Harrison, an emerging-markets currency strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in London. “Hungary is a small, open economy affected by the slowdown in the euro zone, there is some political risk and concern whether it’s able to maintain the IMF conditionality.”

In exchange for the IMF-led loan Hungary agreed to accelerate budget deficit cuts. Finance Minister Janos Veres pledged to meet the government’s target for the budget deficit this year, even at the cost of spending cuts, according to analysts at the nation’s largest lender OTP Bank Nyrt.

The forint’s volatility “hurts more than helps” Hungary’s economy, Veres told reporters yesterday.

Industrial Production

Official reports show the economy is deteriorating. Industrial production plummeted the most in 16 years in November as a recession in western European markets crimps demand for products assembled in the country such as Audi cars and Nokia phones. The government expects the economy to shrink by as much as 3 percent this year.

Producer-price growth slowed to an annual 5.8 percent in December from 7.1 percent in November, the Budapest-based statistics office said yesterday. The unemployment rate rose to 8 percent in the three months through December from 7.7 percent in the same period last year, a separate report showed.

“We may see some recovery in the forint toward 280 per euro at the end of the first quarter,” Harrison said. “The recession is deepening but eventually we’ll reach the point at which the negative scenarios are priced in. But it could get worse before it gets better.”

Forint, Swissie

The forint, which weakened with the Czech koruna and Polish zloty, was at 297.98 per euro by late yesterday in Budapest, after sliding to a record 299.25. It lost 3 percent this past week.

Since the beginning of this year, it lost 11 percent against the Swiss franc, which is popular for foreign-currency mortgage loans in Hungary because of lower borrowing costs. Weakening forint means increasing debt burden for households.

“We have been concerned about foreign-currency loans and the likely downside risk to growth that they now pose,” said Roderick Ngotho, an emerging-markets currency strategist in London at UBS AG. “The question now is whether the central bank will intervene or not if the forint continues down this path.”

Hungary’s government and central bank should work together to control the forint, Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany said on Jan. 23, adding the country needs to “avoid very quick exchange-rate changes.”

The central bank lowered its benchmark lending rate by 2 percentage points to 9.5 percent since November to stimulate growth. That’s lower than Romania’s 10.25 percent rate and Turkey’s 13 percent, and is contributing to the selloff in the currency, according to Commerzbank AG.

‘Much Higher’

Policy makers need to “keep their interest rates much higher to protect their currency,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, an emerging-market currency strategist in Frankfurt at Commerzbank. “They’re being much too aggressive” and are “overdoing rate cuts.”

Investors should sell the forint against a basket of euros and dollars as the country’s economy worsens amid the global financial crisis, Benoit Anne, an emerging-markets currency strategist in London at Merrill Lynch & Co, said Jan. 28.

“The trade is an expression of our bearishness about central European currencies,” Anne said. “Conditions in Europe are going to deteriorate and the euro should weaken further, which in turn will hurt central European currencies.”

The Polish zloty depreciated 1.3 percent to 4.4526 against the euro, after falling to 4.4716, the lowest level since August 2004. It has lost 6.8 percent this year.

Slowing Growth

The currency was hurt by speculation the slowdown in eastern Europe’s biggest economy may deepen and the central bank will lower interest rates further to cushion the slump.

A rate reduction is “possible” in February and expansion may slow to between 1 and 2 percent this year from 4.8 percent in 2008, central banker Andrzej Slawinski told Polsat News channel yesterday.

The Czech koruna weakened 0.9 percent to 27.922 against the euro. The Romanian leu lost 1.1 percent to 4.2957 per euro and the Turkish lira declined 0.7 percent to 1.6490 versus the dollar.

To contact the reporter on this story: Yon Pulkrabek in Prague at ypulkrabek@bloomberg.netEwa Krukowska in Warsaw at ekrukowska@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: January 31, 2009 02:30 EST

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=a9FOKMmcKg3g&refer=europe#

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Poland's stocks, zloty gain ahead of rate decision
By Polya Lesova, MarketWatch

Last update: 3:29 p.m. EST Jan. 26, 2009

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Poland's currency and stocks rose Monday after mixed economic data showing a surge in unemployment and growth in retail sales, as traders bet that the central bank will cut interest rates tomorrow.
In Warsaw, the WIG20 benchmark stock index ended up 3.3%.
The Polish currency, the zloty, gained 1.8% against the U.S. dollar and edged up 0.3% against the euro.

Investors received a mixed batch of economic data on Monday. On the positive front, retail sales in December grew by 6.6% year-on-year in December, exceeding market expectations. However, data also showed that unemployment in Poland rose to 9.5% in December from 9.1% a month earlier.

Although retail sales surprised on the upside, the latest data "do not really change anything in terms of the outlook for the Polish economy," said Lars Christensen, chief analyst at Denmark's Danske Bank. Poland's economy has deteriorated significantly in recent months, with the manufacturing sector being particularly hard hit, Christensen said. "We see the upside surprise in the retail sales numbers as a 'blip' and continue to expect a fairly sharp slowdown in retail sales as the worsening of the labor market, tighter credit conditions and the weaker zloty start to make an impact," he said.

Poland's central bank is expected by most analysts to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.50% at its meeting on Tuesday. "Poland is less dependent on its export sector than Hungary or the Czech Republic, but the collapse in external demand has already weighed on a highly export-orientated industrial sector," said currency strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in a research note.

The strategists are looking for a rate cut of 75 basis points on Tuesday.
Later this week, Poland will release data on GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2008. The data "will most likely show a marked deterioration in economic activity, with an annualized growth rate expected to decelerate to 4.9% from 6.7% and we would expect a much weaker growth profile this year," according to Brown Brothers Harriman.

Polya Lesova is a New York-based reporter for MarketWatch.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/polands-stocks-currency-gain-ahead/story.aspx?guid={37F40529-3CC3-4CA9-9D06-DD6819617210}&dist=msr_1

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Polish Central Bank Reduces Benchmark Rate to 4.25% (Update3)

By Monika Rozlal and Ewa Krukowska

Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Poland’s central bank lowered its key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point as slowing economic growth forces companies to cut investments and employment, capping inflation.

The Narodowy Bank Polski lowered the seven-day reference rate to 4.25 percent. Six of 20 economists in a Bloomberg survey expected the three quarter-point cut, while 14 forecast the rate would be reduced by half a point. The bank said in a statement after today’s decision the inflation rate may fall to its 2.5 percent target in the “coming months.”

“The recent macroeconomic data justify such a scale of reduction as a reaction to slowing economic growth and waning inflationary pressure,” said Jaroslaw Janecki, chief economist at Societe Generale in Warsaw. “We expect the end of the easing cycle in May or June, with the key interest rate at 3.5 percent.”

Polish companies surveyed by the central bank signaled lack of demand, especially abroad, for their products, and they expect a worsening economic situation through the first quarter. They anticipate easing wage demands and consumer prices as unemployment increases.

Revising Forecasts

“Today’s decision was underlined by the continual downward revision of growth forecasts by Poland’s key trading partners and data suggesting domestic demand and the labor market will be more affected than expected by weakening exports,” Rafal Benecki, a senior economist at ING Bank Slaski, wrote in an e-mailed note to clients.

The unemployment rate rose in December for a second consecutive month to the highest in six months. The inflation rate dropped to 3.3 percent, the lowest since October 2007, and the central bank said it may decline further because of global slowdown, falling demand for labor and tighter loan rules.

Poland’s economy, the largest among the 12 states that have joined the European Union since 2004, probably expanded by 4.7-4.8 percent last year and 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter, the government said in an e-mailed statement today.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk told a news conference the cabinet will seek 17 billion zloty ($5.11 billion) in savings in this year’s budget. He forecasts that in the worst-case scenario, economic growth this year will be 1.7 percent, instead of the planned 3.7 percent, while average annual inflation may be 1.9 percent instead of the 2.9 percent estimate in the budget plan.

Zloty Decline

Central Bank Governor Slawomir Skrzypek said the next central bank GDP forecast, to be published at the end of February, will be lower than current expectation of 2.6-2.8 percent growth.

The zloty traded at 4.3878 against the euro at 5:30 p.m. in Warsaw, compared with 4.3876 yesterday and an intra-day high of 4.3067. Last week it slumped to 4.4677 against Europe’s

The depreciation of the zloty may hamper the slowdown of inflation, according to the central bank, though its impact on price growth will be limited because of the weak economic performance.

The council cut borrowing costs in November and December by 1 percentage point following four rate increases earlier in 2008. Such members of the rate-setting body including Marian Noga and Miroslaw Pietrewicz declared earlier this month that they will be voting for a third cut in a row today.

To contact the reporter on this story: Monika Rozlal in Warsaw at mrozlal@bloomberg.netEwa Krukowska in Warsaw at ekrukowska@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: January 27, 2009 12:05 EST

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSXXoO_.gt.g&refer=home

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Economic crisis finally hits Poland

The Associated Press
Thursday, January 29, 2009

WARSAW, Poland: The global economic crisis has finally hit Poland.

A string of dreary statistics this week shows that the once-booming economy has started to sputter: manufacturing fell significantly at the end of last year, unemployment shot up and officials are finally admitting that Poland is hurting.

Poland "will not be an island resistant to trends outside its borders," Prime Minister Donald acknowledged Tuesday as he announced a plan to seek budget savings this year to cover a likely shortfall in state revenues.

For months, Poland's leaders and economists insisted the country could avoid the global turmoil thanks to its healthy banking sector and low mortgage and consumer debt levels.

Shoppers kept spending at the gleaming new malls that have mushroomed in recent years across Poland by far the largest of 10 formerly communist countries that have joined the European Union in recent years.

But the days of denial have now passed.

"Everybody is worrying," said Maja Goettig, chief economist for BPH Bank in Warsaw. "The outlook is worsening each month, and the question is how big this slowdown will be. We've just entered it and nobody knows when it will end."

The economy that grew at a brisk 6.7 percent in 2007 swelling the ranks of a middle class with money to spend on fine wines, fancy cars and large homes slowed to a still-healthy 4.8 percent in 2008, according to figures released by the government's Central Statistical Office Thursday.

Data released this week have shown that Poland felt a chill toward the end of the year as the global crisis hit the country's western European neighbors and the United States. Unemployment rose in December for the second straight month, reaching 9.5 percent due in part to a slowdown in the manufacturing sector as foreign orders fall.

Industrial production in November fell 8.9 percent over the previous year; data released Tuesday showed another 4.4 percent year-on-year fall in December.

The same day, the central bank cut interest rates by a hefty three-quarters of a percentage point for the second consecutive month. It cited a "stronger than previously expected economic slowdown" in cutting its benchmark rate to 4.25 percent.

As worries deepen, Poland's zloty has depreciated significantly in recent months against major currencies like the euro and the U.S. dollar.

The question now is how bad things will get. Many experts still believe Poland can weather the storm better than other European countries and manage modest growth in 2009, although it exports heavily to countries already in recession.

Goettig says her bank predicts 2 percent growth for now, but expects to revise that downward to zero growth. Tusk, the prime minister, said the government's "pessimistic" scenario is for 1.7 percent growth.

Another source of instability comes from the fact that many of the Poles who bought homes in recent years took out mortgages in Swiss francs. Now that the zloty has declined, some are finding it harder to repay their loans.

Despite the souring mood, there are some reasons for optimism.

Polish banks are tightly regulated and were never burdened by the toxic assets that have brought down financial institutions elsewhere. Economy Minister Waldemar Pawlak says Polish banks, mostly owned by large Western European banks, are often in a much better situation than their parent companies.

And bucking the larger trend, retail sales in December grew 6.6 percent over the same month in 2007, better than experts expected.

However, the state statistics office said this week that consumer confidence is now falling.

Agata Lagan, who runs a string of high-end clothing shops throughout Poland, attests to that. She said December sales fell by 30 percent in her Lilla Moda shops in Warsaw year on year.

Another factor weighing on profits is that the battered zloty has made it more expensive to import the goods.

"Usually when we have a new collection, the shops are full of customers ready to shop on the first and second days," she said. But when a new collection arrived two weeks ago, the crowd was less than half the usual size.

"Everyone is waiting for discounts," she said.

http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=19775198

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Treasury chief to unveil overhaul plan for bailout
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to unveil plan to overhaul $700 billion bailout on Monday

* Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
* Thursday February 5, 2009, 4:57 pm EST

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and other top officials are putting the finishing touches on a plan to overhaul the government's $700 billion financial rescue program.

A Treasury official said Geithner will deliver a speech on Monday outlining the new plan.

But Treasury officials would not comment on a report Thursday that the administration is considering proposing changes to the current accounting standard that require banks to carry assets such as mortgage-backed securities on their books at fair value, a process known as "mark to market."

Critics of this process contend that it has made the current financial crisis worse by forcing banks to slash the value of assets that are currently depressed because of market conditions. Treasury officials said the administration's plan was not yet complete and would be revealed in Geithner's speech in Washington next week.

Geithner met Thursday with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and other officials who serve on the President's Working Group on Financial Markets. The group was formed in the wake of the 1987 stock market crash with the goal of better coordinating the government's response to market crises.

"This is a critically important group," Geithner told reporters before the meeting began. "Together this group has the authorities and instruments and experience and talent that are going to be critical to helping solve the financial problems facing our country."

Besides Geithner and Bernanke, the working group includes Mary Schapiro, the new head of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and Michael Dunn, the acting chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Also meeting with the group were Lawrence Summers, who heads President Barack Obama's National Economic Council, and Christina Romer, the head of the president's Council of Economic Advisers.

The discussions also included top banking regulators Sheila Bair, head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan, and James B. Lockhart, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The administration's overhaul of the controversial $700 billion bailout plan is expected to provide support to banks to deal with some of the toxic assets that are now weighing down their balance sheets and keeping them from resuming more normal lending.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Geithner-plans-to-unveil-apf-14270415.html

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Accounting rule change hopes spur Wall St. rally

* Thursday February 5, 2009, 5:06 pm EST

By Ellis Mnyandu

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rallied on Thursday on investor hopes that the government's plan to shore up the financial system will include a change in accounting rules that would stem bank write-downs and spur lending.

Bank stocks reversed losses in late morning to lift the Dow off its lowest level since the bear market low of November 21.

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC - News) finished up 3 percent, while JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM - News) rose 2.1 percent and the S&P financial index (^GSPF - News) rose 1.4 percent. A solid January sales report from Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT - News), coupled with better-than-expected reports from a few other retailers added to the positive tone.

"Anything that helps the banks is helpful for the economy if they can start lending," said Giri Cherukuri, head trader at OakBrook Investments LLC, which oversees $1.3 billion in Lisle, Illinois. "Wal-Mart news was good, so that also helped."

The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI - News) rose 106.41 points, or 1.34 percent, to 8,063.07. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^SPX - News) gained 13.62 points, or 1.64 percent, to 845.85. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:^IXIC - News) climbed 31.19 points, or 2.06 percent, to 1,546.24.

The S&P 500 is now off 6.4 percent since the start of 2009, but has risen 12.4 percent since the bear market low hit in November.

A day before the release of the January non-farm payrolls report, investor sentiment got a boost from talk that Washington would suspend an accounting requirement on the recognition of losses that has resulted in billions of write-downs for banks.

The Obama administration is due to announce its bank rescue plan next week.

There was also encouraging news on the earnings front on Thursday.

Akamai Technologies Inc (NasdaqGS:AKAM - News) ,whose technology helps companies run websites and online businesses, posted a quarterly profit and revenue above Wall Street expectations, sending its shares up 18.1 percent to $16.73 on Nasdaq.

Investors also snapped up shares of technology bellwethers, including Apple (NasdaqGS:AAPL - News) and Cisco Systems (NasdaqGS:CSCO - News), as a loosening up of lending would boost both consumer and business spending. Apple added 3.1 percent to $96.46 to become the Nasdaq's top boost, while Cisco rose 3.2 percent to $16.35 after initial disappointment with the company's revenue outlook for the current quarter dissipated.

Wal-Mart was the top boost to the Dow, jumping 4.6 percent to $48.56 on the New York Stock Exchange after the discounter posted solid January sales.

Among bank stocks, JPMorgan shares rose 2.1 percent to $24.54, while Bank of America (NYSE:BAC - News) , which earlier had fallen more than 10 percent to its lowest level since 1984, ended up 3 percent at $4.84.

The KBW bank index (Philadelphia:^BKX - News) was up 1.8 percent, after earlier having been as much as 6.8 percent lower.

Even with Thursday's rise, financial shares are down 28 percent so far this year.

Companies in the basic materials sector rose on higher metals prices, with aluminum producer Alcoa Inc (NYSE:AA - News) up 3.1 percent to $8.06. Miner Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX - News) jumped 3.9 percent to $28.35.

Volume was active on the New York Stock Exchange, where about 1.63 billion shares changed hands, above last year's estimated daily average volume of 1.49 billion shares, while on the Nasdaq, about 2.56 billion shares traded, above last year's daily average of 2.28 billion.

Advancers outnumbered decliners on both the NYSE and Nasdaq by a ratio of about 9 to 5.

(Editing by Leslie Adler)

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wall-Street-jumps-on-bank-rb-14268471.html

[cyberstievie]

Hier eher mal ein Beispiel für absolut nichtssagendes wertloses journalistisches Blabla-Gelaber... aktuell aus dem HB :-& ...wohl eher antizyklisch zu interpretieren:


07.02.2009 , 09:52 Uhr
Der Forint hält Experten in Atem
von Stefan Menzel

Ungarn gehört zu den Ländern in Mittel- und Osteuropa, die am stärksten unter der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise leiden. Bestens ablesbar ist das an der Wertentwicklung der Landeswährung. Der Forint ist darum zur Zeit nichts für Anleger mit schwachen Nerven. Nicht wenige Experten gehen davon aus, dass sein Wert noch weiter fallen wird. Viele Investoren ziehen deshalb ihre Gelder ab.

WIEN. Seit dem Spätsommer hat die Währung aus dem Land der Magyaren gegenüber dem Euro etwa 25 Prozent an Wert verloren, allein in diesem Jahr sind es an die 15 Prozent. Am Dienstag hat der Forint erstmals die Schallmauer von 300 Forint zum Euro durchbrochen.

Viele Ungarnexperten rechnen damit, dass die Währung ihren endgültigen Tiefststand noch nicht erreicht hat. "Es dürfte zu einer weiteren Abwertung um zehn Prozent kommen, wenn nicht noch mehr", glaubt Ulrich Leuchtmann, Währungsexperte bei der Commerzbank in Frankfurt. Seine Hauptkritik: Die Notenbank in Budapest habe in den zurückliegenden Wochen viel zu schnell den Leitzins gesenkt, um die notleidende ungarische Wirtschaft anzukurbeln. Das habe eine Abwertungsspirale ausgelöst und internationale Investoren aus Ungarn getrieben.

Ungarns Führung steckt in einer Zwickmühle. Nur mit einer neuerlichen Erhöhung der Zinsen durch die Nationalbank ist es möglich, den Teufelskreis weiterer Abwertungen und Kapitalflucht zu durchbrechen. Ökonomisch brauchte das Land jedoch eine Zinssenkung, weil die Wirtschaft schrumpft. Der Staat kann auch nicht als Konjunkturmotor einspringen, weil ihn ein Abkommen mit dem Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) zu äußerster Sparsamkeit zwingt. Da Ungarn in die Nähe eines Staatsbankrotts abzurutschen drohte, hatten IWF und EU im vergangenen Herbst ein Hilfspaket über 20 Milliarden Euro geschnürt. Fällt der Forint jetzt weiter, müssen die Ungarn noch mehr Geld für ihre Auslandsverschuldung ausgeben - Geld, das dann wieder im Inland fehlt, um die eigene Wirtschaft anzukurbeln.

Angesichts der stark schwankenden Währung ist es gerade für internationale Unternehmen schwierig, mit dem Land Geschäfte zu machen. "Die ganze Sache wird immer unkalkulierbarer", :tssk: sagt Michael Müller, Chef eines Immobilienentwicklers aus Wien, der sich stark in Ungarn engagiert hat. Absicherungsmöglichkeiten für die ungarische Landeswährung gibt es zwar, die sind aber teuer. Angesichts schwindender Margen in der Rezession bleibt kaum etwas für die Währungsabsicherung übrig.

Kurzfristig sind die Aussichten für die ungarische Landeswährung also alles andere als rosig. Auch wenn der Forint Erholungstendenzen zeigt. #-o Hartnäckig hielt sich an den Devisenmärkten das Gerücht, die ungarische Nationalbank habe den Abwertungstendenzen des Forints durch eigene Interventionen ein Ende bereitet. Außerdem hilft die grundsätzlich wieder etwas bessere Stimmung an den Börsen. Auch die tschechische Krone und der polnische Zloty profitierten davon, die zuletzt ebenfalls deutlich an Wert verloren haben. "Die gesamte Region Osteuropa leidet unter einer negativen Grundstimmung der Investoren", sagt Tamás Móró von der Condorde Investmentbank in Budapest.

Mutige Anleger können höchstens langfristig auf eine Erholung des Forints setzen. Einige Devisenspezialisten wie Wolfgang Ernst von der Raiffeisen-Gruppe sind auf Jahressicht durchaus optimistisch. Sie setzen darauf, dass sich die wirtschaftliche Lage ab Sommer stabilisiert. Dann könnten sich die derzeitigen Forint-Kurse unter Umständen sogar als Schnäppchen erweisen. :-s

http://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anlegerakademie/der-forint-haelt-experten-in-atem;2142714

[cyberstievie]

Thomson Financial News
S. Africa's rand knocked by risk flight, stocks dip
03.02.09, 11:38 AM EST

JOHANNESBURG, March 2 (Reuters) - South Africa's rand fell more than 3 percent against the dollar, as local markets were stung by worries about the current account following dire trade data and broad weakness on global emerging markets.

Johannesburg's stocks dipped as banks skidded after global peers reported more financial woes and Sappi (nyse: SPP - news - people ) tumbled after forecasting a second-half operating loss.

Government bonds also lost ground, adding to big losses on Friday with no word yet on an expected inter-meeting interest rate cut.

The rand was trading at 10.4530 against the dollar at 1550 GMT, 3.4 percent weaker than its previous close in New York, after dipping to 10.4785, a 2-1/2 month low.

'The main driver continues to be the global risk aversion. We have seen a stronger dollar across the board and I also think that it's a continuation of negative sentiment from negative trade data on Friday,' Absa trader Duncan Howes said.

'That (trade data) continues to play on investors mind and that, in a global enviroment, is not good for the rand.'

Data on Friday showed exports plunged 25 percent in January, sending the trade account to its biggest ever monthly deficit, and keeping pressure on an already ailing current account.

And data on Monday showed the purchasing managers index, which reflects manufacturing activity, fell to a record low of 39.2 in February, pointing to more strain ahead.

The dollar soared to a three-year high against a basket of major currencies after a record loss and new government lifeline for insurer AIG (nyse: AIG - news - people ) rattled stocks and pushed investors away from riskier assets.

American International Group announced a $61.7 billion fourth-quarter loss, the largest quarterly loss in U.S. corporate history.

FINANCIALS LOSE

South Africa's bourse dropped to its lowest close in three months but ended well off earlier levels, with mining shares lifted by the weaker rand.

The Top-40 index of blue-chip stocks shed 0.43 percent to 16,443.81 points, while the broader All-share index fell the same margin to 18,386.54 points.

'If it wasn't for the weak rand holding up commodities we would have been slaughtered like other markets worldwide,' said a Johannesburg-based trader.

Financials were among the biggest losers, dragged down by peers in Europe and the United States after AIG loss and as HSBC (nyse: HBC - news - people ) announced Britain's largest ever rights issue.

Standard Bank fell 4.62 percent to 62 rand, FirstRand dropped 4.56 percent to 11.50 rand and Absa skidded 6.74 percent to 83 rand.

London-listed insurer Old Mutual tumbled 5.6 percent to 5.73 rand ahead of its results on Wednesday. Britain's Observer newspaper reported on Sunday Old Mutual may sell its stake in South Africa's fourth biggest bank Nedbank , which fell 4.32 percent to 72 rand.

Paper producer Sappi plunged 10.53 percent to 17 rand after it forecast an operating loss before special items in the March quarter and said it would keep cutting output.

Government bonds weakened, although losses were less severe than for the rand, with many investors still looking for an early interest rate cut to boost the economy.

Speculation has been high the central bank will cut rates ahead of its April 15-16 meeting, due to weak growth and slowing inflation.

The yield, which moves inversely to the price, on the 2015 bond was up 7 basis points at 8.155 percent compared to Friday's close, while the 2036 added 6 basis points to 8.405 percent.

(Reporting by Gordon Bell, Zimkhitha Sulelo and Rebecca Harrison; Editing by Andy Bruce)


http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/03/02/afx6113780.html

[cyberstievie]

Franken stürzt nach Intervention ab - Renten im Plus
Donnerstag, 12. März 2009, 19:34 Uhr

Frankfurt (Reuters) - Der Schweizer Franken ist am Donnerstag nach einer Intervention der Schweizer Notenbank abgestürzt.

Die Währung fiel so stark zurück wie nie zuvor innerhalb eines Tages. Die Schweizer hatten - wie zuvor die britische Notenbank - ihre Zinsen Richtung Null gesenkt und im Kampf gegen die Rezession und die Abwertung des Franken weitere Maßnahmen angekündigt. Händlern zufolge verkaufte die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) bereits kurz nach ihrer Ankündigung Franken gegen Euro und Dollar. Das katapultierte den Euro zum Franken um mehr als drei Prozent auf einen neuen Jahreshöchststand von 1,5302 Franken. Der Dollar kletterte um 3,2 Prozent auf 1,1905 Franken.

"Dass die SNB zu diesem Zeitpunkt zu derart weitreichenden Maßnahmen greift, überrascht uns und offenbar auch den Markt", schrieben die Analysten der LBBW. Zuletzt hatten die Schweizer im August 1995 am Devisenmarkt interveniert. Der Wert des Franken hat sich seit Ausbruch der US-Immobilienkrise im Sommer 2007 deutlich erhöht, was vor allem zu Lasten der Exportwirtschaft des Landes geht.

Zum Dollar verlor der Euro bis zum Nachmittag auf 1,2775 nach 1,2835 Dollar im späten US-Vortagesgeschäft. Die US-Währung habe von überraschend positiven Konjunkturdaten aus Amerika etwas Rückenwind erhalten, sagten Analysten. Die Kauflaune der US-Verbraucher hat sich trotz der immer tieferen Rezession im Februar überraschend wenig eingetrübt. Die Einzelhändler erlösten im Februar 0,1 Prozent weniger als im Vormonat, Analysten hatten mit einem stärkeren Rückgang um 0,5 Prozent gerechnet. Hingegen kamen aus der Euro-Zone durchweg schlechte Nachrichten: So haben deutsche Unternehmen die Produktion wegen rapide schmelzender Auftragspolster so stark gekürzt wie seit 1991 nicht mehr.

Die EZB legte den Euro-Referenzwert mit 1,2782 (1,2786) Dollar fest. Im Referenzkursverfahren der Banken (EuroFX/1) lag der Euro bei 1,2810 (1,2762) Dollar.

STAATSANLEIHEN WEITEN NACH SNB GEWINNE AUS

Neben den Deviseninterventionen kündigte die Schweizer Notenbank auch den Rückkauf von Rentenpapieren an. Die europäischen Staatsanleihen weiteten ihre Gewinne daraufhin aus. Der Bund-Future stieg um 85 Ticks bis auf ein Tageshoch von 124,70 Zählern. Im Verlauf grenzte der Kontrakt sein Plus aber auf 53 Ticks bei 124,45 Zählern ein. Die zehnjährige Bundesanleihe rentierte mit 3,002 Prozent. Die von der Bundesbank täglich errechnete Umlaufrendite öffentlicher Anleihen fiel auf 2,85 (2,90) Prozent.

http://de.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idDEBEE52B0JQ20090312

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DEURCHF.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DEURCHF.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=30y&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=1000&avgtype=simple&&currency=&&lSyms=DEURCHF.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DEURCHF.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

http://www.faz.net/s/Rub58BA8E456DE64F1890E34F4803239F4D/Doc~EF243457923E44304BA9EED1AB8F2CEB5~ATpl~Ecommon ~Sspezial.html

Schweizer Notenbank wertet kompetitiv ab

12. März 2009 Der Schweizer Franken machte in den vergangenen Wochen seinem Ruf als Krisenwährung schlechthin alle Ehre. Obwohl das Land aufgrund der Lasten der angeschlagenen Megabanken des Landes mit dem Rücken zur Wand steht, wertete der Franken gegen den Euro von 1,6822 Franken je Euro noch im Oktober des Jahres 2007 auf bis zu 1,4490 Franken je Euro im Oktober des vergangenen Jahres auf.

Am Donnerstag lag der Wechselkurs mit 1,4831 Franken zunächst nur leicht darüber. Das änderte sich allerdings, nachdem die Zentralbank des Landes in den vergangenen Monaten den Leitzins zunächst auf gerade noch 0,5 Prozent und am Donnerstag sogar auf 0,25 Prozent senkte und sowohl den interventionistischen Kauf von Währungen als auch von Anleihen ankündigte.

Auf diese Ankündigung hin schoss der Kurs der Schweizer Währung am Nachmittag auf bis zu 1,53 Franken je Euro, der Conf-Future auf Schweizer Staatsanleihen mit einer Laufzeit von zehn Jahren legte 98 Stellen auf 132,82 Prozent zu und die Börse des Landes holte anfängliche Kursverluste auf. Der SMI lag am Nachmittag mit einem Plus von einem Prozent bei 4.616 Zählern.

Mit solchen Maßnahmen des „quantitative easing“ versucht die Sschweiezr Zentralbank unter anderem die Währung zu schwächen. Eine schwache Währung soll dazu führen, die Exportwirtschaft der Schweiz zu Lasten der Handelspartner kompetitiv besser zu stellen.

Schweizer Wirtschaft stagniert ...

Auf diese Weise sollen die zyklischen Bereiche der Wirtschaft des Landes stimuliert werden. Im Gegensatz zum großen, robusten Pharmasektor fühlen sie die globale Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise deutlich. Der Binnenmarkt ist zu klein und zu verkrustet, als dass er alleine zu einer wirtschaftlichen Erholung führen könnte.

Im vierten Quartal des vergangenen Jahres schrumpfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt des Landes auf Jahresbasis um 0,6 Prozent, die Inflationsrate lag im Februar bei 0,2 Prozent, die Erzeuger- und Importpreise waren im Januar rückläufig, die Arbeitslosenquote hat saisonbereinigt angezogen von 2,5 Prozent vor einem Jahr auf zuletzt 3,1 Prozent im Februar, die konjunkturellen Frühindikatoren sind ebenso schwach wie die Stimmungsindikatoren - die Exporte entwickeln sich dagegen bisher robust.

Die Handelsbilanz der Schweiz wurde in den vergangenen Jahren im Trend immer positiver. Gleichzeitig war die Währung des Landes im Rahmen Kredit- und Liquiditätskrise der vergangenen Monate gefragt, da sich gerade auch die Staaten in Mittel- und Osteuropa in den vergangenen Jahren mit günstigen Frankenkrediten eingedeckt hatten. Absicherungs- und Anpassungsstrategien von Schuldnern und Gläubigern führten zu einer starken Nachfrage nach Franken und ließen ihn aufwerten.

... und soll wohl über die Währungsschiene stimuliert werden

Da der Leitzins schon am Limit ist, kündigte die Schweizer Nationalbank (SNB) längst unkonventionellen Maßnahmen an. Ulrich Kohli, ihr Chefökonom, erklärte jüngst, die SNB verfüge über eine Reihe unkonventioneller Instrumente, die zu einer weiteren geldpolitischen Lockerung führen könnten. Und in diesem Rahmen werde die Wechselkursentwicklung ständig beobachtet. Marktteilnehmer schließen daraus, dass es zu unsterilisierten Interventionen kommen könnte. Nur so lasse sich die Geldmenge erhöhen, während die Währung geschwächt würde.

Auf dieser Basis rechneten die Analysten von BNP Paribas schon im Vorfeld der Entscheidung damit, dass der Franken gegen den Euro zunächst auf Kurse von bis zu 1,50 laufen könne, möglicherweise sogar weiter. Kurzfristig lagen sie damit richtig. Allerdings stellt sich die Frage, ob sich die Schweizer Zentralbank längerfristig tatsächlich gegen den Markt stellen kann. Erstens ist das schon in den vergangenen Wochen nicht gelungen. Zweitens können Interventionen in einem Umfeld problematisch werden, das sensibel für protektionistische Maßnahmen ist. So rechneten die Analysten der UBS damit, dass das Leitzinsziel auf 0,25 Prozent gesenkt wird, während der Markt eine zu starke Abwertung verhindern werde.

Die in dem Beitrag geäußerte Einschätzung gibt die Meinung des Autors und nicht die der F.A.Z.-Redaktion wieder.

[cyberstievie]

Thomson Reuters
UPDATE 1-Turkish lira firms on hopes for quick IMF deal
04.01.09, 10:58 AM EDT

ISTANBUL, April 1 (Reuters) - Turkey's lira firmed as much as 1.8 percent on Wednesday after Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said he wants to accelerate International Monetary Fund talks, signalling a deal with the lender is close at hand.

Emerging markets were also trading higher on hopes that the G20 meeting in London would provide a coordinated response to the global economic crisis.

The lira firmed 1.8 percent to 1.6425 against the dollar from the previous day's close of 1.667. Stocks rose 0.17 percent to 25,808 points at 1320 GMT.

'It's the expectations regarding a deal with the International Monetary Fund,' said Omer Unveren, a trader at Finansbank, following comments from Erdogan he was seeking progress in talks with the international lender.

'The markets expect that the deal could come very soon, either this week or next. Emerging markets are rallying worldwide, but Turkey is outperforming at the moment,' he said.

The yield on the benchmark bond maturing on Nov. 3, 2010, fell to 13.95 percent from the previous day's close of 14.07 percent.

Turkey's economy slowed to a six-year low in 2008, official data showed on Tuesday. The performance of Erdogan's AK Party in polls on Sunday was its worst since it took office in 2002, adding pressure on the government to sign an IMF deal after negotiations were suspended in January.

The IMF and Turkey have been in talks for months on a deal to replace a $10 billion accord which expired last May, but they have failed to reach an agreement due to differences over issues such as the state revenues administration.

Turkey's economy contracted 6.2 percent in the final quarter of 2008, the state statistics agency said.

Is Bank, Turkey's biggest listed lender, rose 3.28 percent higher to 3.78 lira as it began dividend payments. Top-traded Garanti Bank rose 0.85 percent to 2.38 lira.

(Reporting by Thomas Grove; editing by Chris Pizzey) Keywords: MARKETS TURKEY/

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/04/01/afx6241245.html

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DTRYUSD.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DTRYUSD.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DTRYEUR.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DTRYEUR.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

EMERGING MARKETS REPORT
Zloty, forint surge on ECB intervention rumors
But analysts say rally decreases need for currency support measures

By Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:00 p.m. EDT April 1, 2009

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Polish zloty and the Hungarian forint rallied Wednesday on market rumors that the European Central Bank may intervene to support Eastern European currencies.
Analysts, however, cautioned that any possible intervention remains pure speculation -- and the rally itself decreases the need for currency support measures.
Currencies in Eastern Europe have come under heavy selling pressure in recent months, as the global crisis has taken a heavy toll on the region's economies.
The European Central Bank is expected to reduce its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 1% on Thursday, but there is speculation about whether or not the bank will announce any extraordinary measures.
There is speculation in the currency markets that one such measure could be support for currencies in Eastern Europe. The Polish and Hungarian currencies soared on the rumors.
In afternoon trading on Wednesday, the zloty was up 3% against the euro and 2.6% against the U.S. dollar. The forint rose 2% against the euro and gained 1.7% against the greenback.
"It's pure speculation, right?" said Paul Biszko, senior emerging markets analyst at RBC Capital Markets. "The market has been rallying off it. Aside from that, there is no clear signal that this will occur."

"If we get a continuation of the positive mood we are seeing this afternoon, there will be less of a need to intervene," he said. "We've seen huge moves today along the lines of 2% to 3%."
Peter Bofinger, a senior economic adviser to the German government, suggested last week that the ECB should intervene to support currencies in Eastern Europe if necessary, according to a media report.
"I think what would also be important for Eastern Europe is that not only the governments but also the European Central Bank stands ready to support these currencies -- because the only institution that can help avoid an Asian crisis scenario in Eastern Europe is the European Central Bank," Bofinger told Reuters in an interview last week.

Bofinger, one of the German government's so-called "wise men," also said that foreign exchange market intervention is much more important for stability than funds from the International Monetary Fund, according to the report.
A number of countries in Eastern Europe have been forced to seek aid from the IMF. These include Hungary, Latvia, Romania, Ukraine, and Serbia.
"Talk is making the rounds in the market about the ECB possibly intervening to support the Eastern European currencies," said Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.
"While this idea was reportedly put forth last week by one of the German government's 'wise men,' we believe the chances of this happening are close to nil," Thin said in a note to clients on Wednesday.
He said he would fade this move and buy euros vs. Eastern European currencies on this dip in the euro.
Concerns about large-scale private sector currency mismatches in Eastern Europe are best addressed by the various currency swap lines that have already been put in place by the Federal Reserve, the ECB, and the Swiss National Bank, Thin said.
"Certainly, a case could be made for expanding these as needed," he said. "But foreign exchange intervention? The notion that the ECB would intervene to weaken the euro seems very, very implausible, especially when it stood by and did nothing when euro/dollar was moving towards 1.60."
The surging zloty and forint had minimal impact on major currency pairs, which were trading in relatively narrow ranges as leaders from the Group of 20 nations convened in London. See Currencies.
The euro traded at $1.3212, down from $1.3249 late Tuesday. End of Story

Polya Lesova is a New York-based reporter for MarketWatch.


http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DHUFEUR.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DHUFEUR.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DPLNEUR.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DPLNEUR.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

Hungarian Forint Spikes Up To 6-Day High Versus Dollar

Posted 02 April 2009 @ 03:43 am EST

The Hungarian forint staged a sharp spike against the US dollar by about 2:05 am ET Thursday. The Hungarian currency thus rose to a 6-day high of 223.90, with next upside target level seen at 219.00. The dollar-forint pair closed Wednesday's New York session at 228.29.

The economic report released at 3:00 am ET likely influenced the deals in the pair. Hungary's Central Statistical Office said in a final report that the trade deficit stood at EUR 194 million in January, revised from EUR 192 million deficit estimated initially. In December, the trade deficit was EUR 79.4 million. A year ago, in January, the deficit was EUR 93.3 million.

For comments and feedback: contact editorial@rttnews.com

Read the full article of:
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20090402/hungarian-forint-spikes-up-today-high-versus-dollar.htm

[cyberstievie]

Hungarian forint off multi-month high against dollar
4/30/2009 10:16 AM ET
The Hungarian currency moved well of its Asian session's rally against the US dollar in early deals and continued its downtrend in the early New York trading on Thursday. The Hungarian forint that jumped to a new multi-month high of 214.39 against the greenback by 3:00 am ET reversed direction thereafter and declined as low as 219.97 around 9:40 am ET.

In economic news, Hungary's Central Statistical Office said in a final report that the trade surplus stood at EUR 117 million in the January to February period, revised from EUR 85 million surplus estimated initially. A year ago, the trade surplus was EUR 68 million.

During the January to February period, exports volume dropped 27% compared to the same period of the previous year, revised from 30% fall reported in the preceding report. At the same time, imports fell 28%, revised from 30% reported initially.

The forint has appreciated around 6.5 percent so far this week to reach its multi-month peak of 214.39 in early European trading today. The greenback-forint pair that closed Wednesday's deals at 217.66 is currently quoted at 218.25.

http://www.rttnews.com/Content/CurrencyMarket.aspx?Node=b3&Id=931147


http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DHUFUSD.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DHUFUSD.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DHUFEUR.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DHUFEUR.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

Unprecedented changes in foreign currency loans in Hungary

Thursday, 30, April 2009 04:38:00 PM

The global crisis has brought about a phenomenon that has been unprecedented in the history of Hungary's foreign currency lending. In March, households repaid more debt than they borrowed. According to the figures released by the central bank (NBH) on Thursday, households' net borrowing nearly halved from February and a decline in foreign currency borrowing played a key role in this. For the first time since the spring of 2008, the sector's deposits also fell, which indicates that the high interest rates offered by commercial banks on deposits are not so alluring anymore. The sector's net withdrawals of foreign currency deposits were also lower compared with February.

Seasonally and exchange rate adjusted net new foreign currency borrowing by households fell slightly compared with February, amounting to HUF 28.2 billion in March.

After net repayments in the previous month, net forint borrowing amounted to HUF 3.6 billion in March.

Outstanding forint and foreign currency loans of the household sector rose by HUF 118.5 billion, resulting from increases of HUF 2.3 billion and HUF 116.2 billion, respectively, in forint and foreign currency loans. Revaluations (forint weakening) and other changes accounted for 100% of the increase in foreign currency loans, which means FX borrowing was in fact HUF 6.5 bn smaller than FX repayments.

This could be labelled as a historic fact, given there has never been such decline in Hungary.

http://www.portfolio.hu/img/upload/090430Loans01.jpg

The chart of the NBH below underpins our previous opinion that data not adjusted seasonally indicate a downward trend in foreign currency borrowing for the first months of 2009. Also note that a continuous decline is persistently weakening the forint.

http://www.portfolio.hu/en/img/upload/res/th/090430Loans02Big.png

The stock of new housing and consumer loans (denominated in euro and Swiss franc) rose to HUF 35.2 bn from HUF 31 bn, but the ratio of FX loans dropped further to 74.7% from 76.1%. CHF-denominated borrowing rose to HUF 5.3 bn in March from HUF 4.1 bn in Feb, but it remains well below the levels seen until last October.

http://www.portfolio.hu/img/upload/090430Loans03.jpg

Regarding housing loans it seems there was some ascent from the bottom of the pit, with the stock of new business rising to HUF 30 bn from HUF 27 bn, and only a fifth of that was taken out in CHF. EUR-denominated borrowing maintained its lead but HUF-denominated loans also ticked up to HUF 8.9 bn from HUF 7.4 bn.

http://www.portfolio.hu/img/upload/090430Loans04.jpg

The volume increase at HUF loans is party attributable to the fact that while their total cost remained the highest, it still eased some to 15.18% from 15.72%. The total cost indicator fo FX loans also fell some (to 7.61% at CHF and to 10.14% at EUR from 7.70% and 10.22%, respectively).

http://www.portfolio.hu/img/upload/090430Loans05.jpg

The massive decline in the stock of new consumer loans that started last autumn has turned around in March and rose to HUF 38.7 bn from HUF 30.8 bn in Feb. There was an increase also in CHF and HUF loans here.

http://www.portfolio.hu/img/upload/090430Loans06.jpg


With respect to total cost of loans EUR loans remained the most favourable. Moreover, the gap between EUR-denominated (11.73%) and CHF (18.23%) and HUF loans (31.48%) widened even further.

http://www.portfolio.hu/img/upload/090430Loans07.jpg

Outstanding forint and foreign currency loans of the household sector rose by HUF 118.5 billion, resulting from increases of HUF 2.3 billion and HUF 116.2 billion, respectively, in forint and foreign currency loans.

http://www.portfolio.hu/img/upload/090430Loans08.jpg

The stock of forint deposits plunged by HUF 115.7 billion in March from February, which marks the largest m/m decline of the past years. One of the reasons may be that following a dynamic rise in interest rates on deposits commercial banks have become more tight-fisted in this respect. Additionally, clients' confidence has been blown by (unfounded) rumours about a possible freezing of deposits, but this will not be part of the equation in the coming months. Another, gloomier interpretation of the figure is that households have started to deplete their savings put in bank deposits.

http://www.portfolio.hu/img/upload/090430Loans09.jpg

http://www.portfolio.hu/en/cikkek.tdp?cCheck=1&k=2&i=17520

[cyberstievie]

Risk appetite leaves rand strong
By Ray Faure, I-Net Bridge
Published:Apr 30, 2009

The rand remained strong against major currencies on Thursday amid a rise in global risk appetite but was off the session’s best levels in late trade.

At 16:00 the rand was bid at 8.4876 to the dollar from an overnight close of 8.4806 having touched an intraday best level of 8.3925. It was bid at 11.1957 to the euro from a previous 11.2454 and at 12.5085 against sterling from 12.5332.

The euro was bid at 1.3200 from US$1.3255 overnight.

"The rand remains on the front foot but it must be getting close to running out of steam," a local currency trader said.

He added that a greatly reduced trade deficit for March had been rand supportive, but that the local currency had ignored producer price inflation data this morning.

It was also unmoved by a 100 basis point cut in the repo rate which was widely expected.

South Africa recorded a trade deficit of 512 million rand for its trade with non-Southern African Customs Union trading partners in March after the 570.7 million rand deficit of February, according to Customs & Excise figures released on Thursday.

It follows the record 17.380 billion rand deficit in January and will thus be solace for the markets that had been expecting large deficits to persist this year as exports come under pressure.

A 3.5 billion rand deficit was expected, a survey by I-Net Bridge had found, with forecasts varying from -1.0 billion rand to -5.0 billion rand.

October 2007’s 14.7 billion rand deficit was the previous worst ever.

South Africa’s producer price index (PPI) rose by 5.3% year-on-year (y/y) in March from 7.3% y/y in February, Statistics South Africa data on Thursday showed. This is the seventh consecutive decrease in the producer price inflation headline number.

The PPI increased 0.1% on a monthly basis after February’s monthly decrease of -0.3%.

The PPI was expected to have increased at 5.5% y/y according to a survey of leading economists by I-Net Bridge, with forecasts ranging from just 5.2% to 6.3% y/y. PPI was at 11.9% a year ago.

JP Morgan said in a note on Thursday afternoon: "$ZAR continues to push lower despite an oversold and diverging setup. The decline has actually taken on a more impulsive bias following the break of the 8.60 support area. Short term downside risks now point to a test of the 8.45/8.33 levels."

Dow Jones Newswires reports that the dollar is continuing to lag against most of its major rivals - save for the yen - early Thursday, even though moves against most currencies are limited ahead of the month-end and looming holidays in Japan and much of Europe.

Overnight, the dollar remained pressured by the worldwide rise in risk appetites that took hold on Wednesday.

The improved sentiment has been driven by rising optimism over the prospects for global recovery, receiving added impetus following Japan’s report of a surprisingly strong 1.6% rise in industrial production for March.

Stock markets outside the U.S. have also been generally trading higher so far Thursday, adding to the cheery environment and accentuating flows out of the safe-haven dollar toward riskier assets.

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DZARUSD.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DZARUSD.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DZAREUR.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DZAREUR.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

-->Link: Risk appetite leaves rand strong (http://www.thetimes.co.za/News/Article.aspx?id=990569)

[cyberstievie]

Budget and FX woes to delay Polish euro bid

* Reuters, Tuesday April 28 2009

* Poland IMF credit not enough to secure ERM-2 entry this yr
* Forecast unchanged for ERM-2 entry in 2010, euro in 2013
* Czech and Hungary euro zone bids seen delayed till 2014

By Nigel Davies

LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) - A volatile zloty and higher budget gap will likely delay by a year each Poland's goal of joining the ERM-2 currency grid in 2009 and its aim of finally swapping zlotys for euros in 2012, a Reuters poll found.
Warsaw's deal to take a $20.5 billion International Monetary Fund credit line may help support its zloty currency but it will not be enough to support its plan to adopt the euro within three years, the survey's results showed
The poll of 31 analysts also forecast that the Czech Republic, Hungary and Latvia, whose governments have all collapsed this year, would not join the single currency until 2014. That was a year later than the last poll's predictions as public finances and currencies across the ex-communist region continued to take a battering.
On Monday, Poland's centre-right government stuck with the 2012 target date but conceded it now looks untenable after months of turbulence for the zloty and a jump in its budget deficit to way past the euro zone's 3 percent ceiling.
But analysts stuck with a forecast made in a poll in January for Poland to enter the euro currency antechamber in 2010 and full entry to be granted in 2013.
Analysts said stability in the zloty, which has lost 30 percent against the euro from all time highs last summer, was one of the major issues.
"There is no logic in putting the zloty in a strait jacket in the current weak global market environment," said Timothy Ash at RBS. "Maximum policy flexibility is required at these times, and the National Bank of Poland does not need its hands tied behind its backs on the rate setting front."
Once inside ERM-2 a euro candidate country must keep its currency within a trading band of +/- 15 percent around a central parity rate, which could prove difficult given such recent strong swings in the zloty's value.
The zloty has shed almost 6.5 percent to the euro since April 15 after surging to a three-month high on the back of Warsaw's seeking the IMF credit line.
Along with other criteria, countries aspiring to enter the euro zone must also maintain a government deficit below 3 percent of GDP. A top cabinet aide in Warsaw told Reuters last week the gap could instead hit 4.6 percent this year -- meaning the Poles face a renewed struggle to bring it back down while trying to prop up an economy that looks set to contract.
"We expect Poland to push hard but (it) will be held back by due process and not be able to enter until the first half of 2010," said Peter Attard Montalto at Nomura International.
COLLAPSE TO PROMPT DELAYS?

Under pressure from the economic crisis, the Hungarian and Latvian governments collapsed this year among widespread public discontent. The Czechs succumbed to a no-confidence vote last month based mainly on domestic infighting, although the opposition there, too, pinned it to economic turmoil.
The poll's change in consensus forecast in the three states' potential euro dates underscored how deeply political risk has become entwined with the economic crisis and investor sentiment.
The wider global slowdown has pushed down export orders across the industry-heavy region by as much as a third in the worst cases, while joblessness is rising and governments are slashing budgets as a contraction in growth hits tax revenues.
Latvia expects a contraction of around 14 percent this year, Hungary around 6 percent, and the Czechs 2 percent, forecasts that have helped put some reforms like euro entry on the back burner as policymakers struggle to keep economies afloat.
"Although the recent instability of the (Czech) koruna has encouraged more rapid movement toward euro adoption, the government's collapse in March means further delays," said Sharon Fisher at IHS Global Insight.
The survey showed Estonia was still forecast to enter the euro zone in 2013. Romania and Bulgaria were not seen coming on board until 2015, unchanged from last time.
The stability of those forecasts comes despite the severest recession raging in many parts of the euro area since the Second World War.
That does not appear to have damaged ambitions. Many outside the 16-nation bloc have tried to speed up efforts to adopt the euro as a potential shield against the crisis. Meanwhile, the outlook for Turkey's EU membership looked a touch more positive, with analysts predicting it could happen in 2019, a year earlier than the previous poll.
(For poll data click on )
(Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Patrick Graham)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8477805

[cyberstievie]

FOREX-Dollar, yen fall; demand for risky assets grows
Thu Apr 30, 2009 1:20pm BST

* Fed highlights better US econ outlook, stoking risk demand
* Dollar, yen fall; euro, higher yielding Aussie dollar gain
* Swine flu, Chrysler crisis linger in the background
* Dollar pares some losses as investors take profit

By Jessica Mortimer

LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) - The dollar and the yen fell broadly on Thursday as growing hopes that the global economy may be over the worst of the recession diminished the attraction of those currencies perceived to be safer assets.

Investors took heart from Wednesday's Federal Reserve statement pointing to an improved U.S. economic outlook. This fuelled strong gains in equities, with European shares up 2 percent, which boosted the euro while the Australian dollar -- which is typically seen as higher risk -- jumped, hitting a six-month high against its U.S. counterpart.

The optimistic tone of the Fed's statement offset earlier news that the U.S. economy contracted sharply in the first quarter, keeping intact a broad improvement in sentiment and pushing the dollar to a 3-week low against a currency basket.

"Markets are still very much in a risk appetite mood and this looks set to continue for the time being," SEB currency strategist in Stockholm Carl Hammer said.

The dollar came off earlier lows later in the session, however, as traders said some investors opted to buy the currency at more attractive levels, particularly given that several risk factors continue to lurk in the background.

The risk of the swine flu outbreak hampering the global economic recovery increased as the World Health Organisation said a pandemic was imminent, while reports emerged of an imminent bankruptcy filing by Chrysler.

Market players also remain wary ahead of Monday's release of the U.S. stress tests on banks.

At 1206 GMT, the dollar index .DXY, which tracks the U.S. currency's performance against the nation's biggest trading partners, fell 0.2 percent to 84.455, having fallen as low as 83.885, its lowest since early April.

The euro gained 0.1 percent against the U.S. currency to $1.3280 <EUR=>, though it was off an earlier two-week high of around $1.3384.

The higher-yielding Australian dollar gained 0.8 percent against the dollar to $0.7309 <AUD=>, having earlier hit a six-month high of $0.7383.

The yen was broadly weaker meanwhile, with the dollar up 0.6 percent at 98.08 yen <JPY=> and the euro rose 0.7 percent to 130.29 yen <EURJPY=R>, not far from an earlier two-week high around 130.90 yen.

HOPE NOT REALITY

Data on Wednesday showing a rise in euro zone unemployment to 8.9 percent in March from an upwardly revised 8.7 percent in February underlined the view that the region's economy remains weak.

Other data showed that euro zone inflation remained at a record low of 0.6 percent year-on-year in April, highlighting that although there have been some more positive signs the fundamental picture remains bleak.

"Risk continues to build over the next month or so and that will play as dollar negative," said Paul Robson, strategist at RBS in London.

He cautioned, however, that risk demand was based more on "hope than reality".

Market participants were watching Chrysler's last-ditch efforts to avoid bankruptcy ahead of a government-imposed restructuring deadline later in the day. The Wall Street Journal reported that those efforts had hit a roadblock, and bankruptcy was "all but certain".

Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar rose 0.3 percent against the U.S. dollar to $0.5682 <NZD=>, but it was significantly outperforming its Australian counterpart after New Zealand's central bank cut interest rates.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 50 basis points to a record low 2.5 percent and pledged to keep them low for more than a year to fight the country's worst ever recession.

The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged at 0.1 percent and stood by its forecast for economic recovery by early next year.

(Reporting by Jessica Mortimer; additional reporting by Naomi Tajitsu; editing by Victoria Main)

http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKLU70243620090430

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DJPYUSD.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DJPYUSD.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DJPYEUR.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DJPYEUR.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

Japanese yen falls to new multi-day lows against most majors

5/1/2009 12:3 AM ET

During early Asian deals on Friday, the Japanese yen declined to a 15-day low against the European currency and the Swiss franc and an 11-day low versus the US dollar after the nation's core inflation fell for the first time in more than a year in March and unemployment rate marked the highest level in more than four years, as companies shed jobs to ride out the worst recession in decades.

Core inflation in Japan eased 0.1 percent on year in March, the Cabinet Office said today, marking the first annual decline since September 2007. Analysts had been expecting a 0.2 percent decline following a flat performance in April.

Overall national inflation was down 0.3 percent on year, in line with forecasts, while CPI minus fresh food and energy also eased an annual 0.3 percent.

Also, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is Japan surged to 4.8 percent in March, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare said on Friday. That was higher than analyst expectations for a 4.6 percent increase following the 4.4 percent gain in February. The job-to-applicant ratio fell to 0.52 - worse than expectations for a ratio of 0.55 after posting a 0.59 in February.

Against the US dollar, the Japanese yen showed weakness during early Asian deals on Friday. At 8:40 pm ET, the yen declined to an 11-day low of 99.18 versus the dollar, compared to 98.64 hit late New York Thursday. The dollar-yen pair is currently quoted at 98.91.

The Japanese currency has lost around 3.5% against the buck thus far this week and the next likely target for the yen is seen at the 99.7 level.

Traders reacted to a report that America's third largest car maker Chrysler LC will be filing for bankruptcy after weeks of negotiation. The filing will mark the first time a major American automaker has declared bankruptcy.

However, the news on the overall jobs situation in the U.S. was brighter as fewer people filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week, continuing a recent trend of moderation that has marked in the past several weeks.

According to a release from the Labor Department, initial jobless claims fell to 631,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 645,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to come in unchanged compared to the 640,000 originally reported for the previous week.

However, the report also showed a continued increase in continuing claims, which rose to another new record high of 6.271 million in the week ended April 18th. The continued increase suggests that people are having trouble finding jobs after they are laid off.

The Japanese yen that closed Thursday's North American session at 130.50 edged down to 131.53 at 8:40 pm ET. This set a 15-day low for the yen. The next downside target level for the Japanese currency is seen around 133.9.

The Japanese currency has been trading lower against the euro since it reached a new multi-week peak of 124.41 on Tuesday. The yen has depreciated more than 5% against the euro thus far.

Against the British pound, the Japanese unit traded down during Friday's early Asian deals. At 8:40 pm ET, the yen slipped to 146.97 against the pound, compared to Thursday's closing value of 145.92.

The yen that hit a new multi-week high of 139.07 versus the sterling on April 28 has lost around 5.3% thus far.

The Japanese currency which closed Thursday's New York deals at 86.51 against the Swiss franc touched a 15-day low of 87.11 during today's early Asian trading. The yen is presently trading at 86.85 against the franc with 87.7 seen as the next target level.

The yen that rose to a new 6-week high of 82.73 against the alpine currency on Tuesday reversed direction thereafter and has lost more than 5 percent since then. The franc-yen pair is currently worth near 86.8.

Across the Atlantic, the ISM is scheduled to release the results of its non-manufacturing survey at 10:00 am ET. The non-manufacturing index is likely to show a reading of 38.4 for April.

The final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for April is due to be released at 10:00 AM ET. The report is expected to show that the consumer sentiment index remain steady at previous month's reading of 61.9.

At the same time, the Department of Commerce will release its Factory orders report at 10:00 am ET. Analysts expect the orders to drop 0.6 percent in March.

http://www.rttnews.com/Content/CurrencyMarket.aspx?Node=b3&Id=932335

[cyberstievie]

Dollar tumbles to multimonth lows as recovery seen
Dollar tumbles to multimonth lows vs euro, pound as Geithner, Lewis see econ. recovery, growth

* Tali Arbel, AP Business Writer
* On Wednesday May 20, 2009, 11:13 am EDT

NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar tumbled against the other major currencies Wednesday, touching a fresh low against the pound for the year and a 4-month low against the euro as signs of a resolution to the financial crisis drove investors to riskier investments.

Equities in Europe and the U.S. rose, as did oil prices, as cheered investors moved their cash into commodities and stocks.

Since last summer, the dollar has tended to trade inversely to stocks, as fearful investors deserted their positions in emerging markets and commodities and jumped to the buck's "safety" lure. When stocks and oil prices trend higher, that pattern tends to reverse.

The euro jumped to $1.3782 in morning trading in New York from $1.3650 late Tuesday, peaking earlier at $1.3794, its highest price since Jan. 8.

Meanwhile, the British pound rose to a 2009 high for the second day in a row at $1.5658. It recently traded at $1.5637, up from $1.5512.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the proposed public-private partnership to help banks get rid of their "toxic" assets would begin operations within six weeks, and he expected that financial institutions that had gotten government bailout funds would pay back $25 billion of the aid this year.

"There are important indications that our financial system is starting to heal," a release of Geithner's prepared testimony said, citing improvement in corporate bond markets, bank capital levels and the surge in mortgage refinancings.

Meanwhile, Bank of America Corp. chief executive Ken Lewis said he expects a modest return to growth in the later part of the year at a conference in London.

A "serious case of dollar damage is under way," said Ashraf Laidi, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in London, in a note to investors. "We have long warned about the day of reckoning for the dollar emerging at the next economic recovery."

In other trading, the dollar fell to 95.33 Japanese yen from 96.14 yen late Tuesday, despite the government saying the Japanese economy had shrunk at a record 15.2 percent pace in the first quarter. It also tumbled to 1.0979 Swiss francs from 1.1074.

Oil prices jutted more than $1.50 higher to $61.67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, propelling the "commodity currencies" higher. Commodity-backed currencies are currencies whose economies are heavily affected by the prices of commodities because they are big exporters, and include Australia, Brazil and Canada, for example.

The dollar dropped to 1.1420 Canadian dollars from 1.1529 late Tuesday, slipped against the Australian dollar and tumbled more than 1 percent against the Brazilian real.

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DEURUSD.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DEURUSD.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DJPYUSD.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DJPYUSD.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

UPDATE 1-S&P cuts UK's rating outlook to negative
Thu May 21, 2009 5:02am EDT

LONDON, May 21 (Reuters) - Ratings agency Standard & Poor's lowered its outlook on Britain to negative on Thursday, citing government debt that would be hard to rein in and political uncertainty about the policy response with an election looming.

The agency affirmed Britain's 'AAA' long-term and 'A-1+' short-term sovereign credit ratings.

"We have revised the outlook on the UK to negative due to our view that, even assuming additional fiscal tightening, the net general government debt burden could approach 100 percent of GDP and remain near that level in the medium term," Standard & Poor's credit analyst David Beers said in a statement.

Beers said S&P had a more cautious view than the government of "how quickly the erosion in the government's revenue base may be repaired, the extent to which the growth in government spending can be curtailed, and consequently the pace at which historically high fiscal deficits are likely to narrow".

Official data released minutes after the S&P announcement showed British public borrowing hit a record high for the month of April -- the first month of the new tax year -- as the recession-hit economy battered public finances.

The June gilt future and the pound tumbled sharply after the S&P announcement.

By 0827 GMT, June gilt futures were down 46 ticks at 119.50, having hit a session low of 119.43.

Fellow ratings agency Moody's declined comment on its plans.

In his April budget, finance minister Alistair Darling said public debt would spiral -- with a record 220 billion pounds of debt supply this year -- but would decline further out based on assumptions of a return to growth which business chiefs and economists have described as optimistic.

S&P said Britain's ratings were supported by its wealthy, diversified economy, fiscal and monetary policy flexibility and relatively flexible product and labour markets.

But an election due by next year, which opinion polls suggest Prime Minister Gordon Brown's ruling Labour party is likely to lose to the opposition Conservatives, was creating uncertainty about government policy despite support across the parties for fiscal tightening.

"The rating could be lowered if we conclude that, following the election, the next government's fiscal consolidation plans are unlikely to put the UK debt burden on a secure downward trajectory over the medium term," Beers said.

"Conversely, the outlook could be revised back to stable if comprehensive measures are implemented to place the public finances on a sustainable footing, or if fiscal outturns are more benign than we currently anticipate."

Analysts said S&P had heaped further pressure on the next government to act to rein in public debt.

"Whoever wins the next election, tax hikes and sharp spending cuts will be the order of the day -- but today's announcement by S&P puts that much more pressure on the next government to act quickly," Colin Ellis of Daiwa Securities said. (Writing by Mike Peacock; editing by Chris Pizzey)

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSLL62724020090521

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DGBPEUR.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DGBPEUR.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

Turkey c.banker remarks add doubt on IMF deal

* Reuters, Wednesday May 20 2009

* C.bank's head comments add fresh doubts on IMF deal
* Says Turkish recovery could be faster than global pickup
* Markets, lira strengthen amid growing risk appetite

By Selcuk Gokoluk and Ibon Villelabeitia
ANKARA, May 20 (Reuters) - Turkey should prepare a Plan B if it fails to conclude talks with the IMF on a loan accord, Central Bank governor Durmus Yilmaz said, in the clearest comments yet by a Turkish official that a deal might not happen.

Turkey suspended protracted talks with the International Monetary Fund on a loan deal in January due to differences over the level of spending and fiscal reform steps.

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has said he cannot accept some of the IMF demands to rein in spending, but Yilmaz's words mark the first time a Turkish official has suggested the deal -- seen as vital to help Turkey weather the global economic crisis -- might not be signed.

They also come as doubts grow in the market over Ankara's intentions on signing an IMF deal as Turkey's current account deficit -- long a major concern for Turkish policy makers -- falls sharply, reducing the need for IMF cash. The government sees the economy picking up from a deep slump in the fourth quarter of 2009.

Business groups have been clamouring for an IMF accord to restore investor confidence and shield the European Union candidate's export-driven economy, which is expected to shrink 5 percent this year -- the first contraction since 2001.
The Turkish lira firmed to 1.5315 versus the dollar as of 0830 GMT, up from Monday's close of 1.555 amid growing risk appetite in emerging markets. Stocks also were up 2 percent. Markets closed on Tuesday for a national holiday.
The government is yet to announce whether it would invite an IMF delegation to resume direct talks on a loan accord expected to be as much as $45 billion. Turkey's previous $10 billion IMF deal expired last May.

"The Central Bank and the economic policy makers should certainly have a plan B," state-run Anatolian news agency quoted Yilmaz as saying. "The ratio of the public debt to national income is important. If you can keep this under control, this boosts confidence in the economy," Yilmaz also said. His comments were made on Monday during a conference but published on Wednesday.

FOOT DRAGGING

The ruling AK Party's setback in local elections in March and the appointment of respected Ali Babacan as economy tsar in a wide cabinet reshuffle on May 1 had raised hopes Erdogan would expedite an accord. But foot-dragging has continued.
"We are not sure still whether Plan A is an IMF programme for those nearer the apex of the administration," Timothy Ash at Royal Bank of Scotland said in a research note.

The Turkish government has said curbing spending would exacerbate the economic downturn and worsen unemployment. Fiscal austerity and high primary surpluses have been standard terms of IMF programmes for emerging markets like Turkey.

Yilmaz said Turkey could start its recovery earlier than the global economy. The country had passed several pro-market structural reforms including overhauling its social security system and privatisation of loss-making state companies.

"Domestic demand in our country will stabilise relatively in the second quarter and growth will shift to positive figures starting from the final quarter," Yilmaz said.
The IMF expects Turkey's economy to shrink 5.1 percent this year. The unemployment rate hit a record 16.1 percent in the January to March period.
Economists have renewed calls for Turkey to sign a new IMF deal in order to secure foreign capital inflows and cushion market sentiment.

"If there is no IMF agreement, the public sector borrowing requirement will continue to be high," Finansbank chief economist Inan Demir told Reuters.
"This will cause the overall interest rate level to remain high relatively and use of the funds by the public sector which could alternatively be extended to the real economy as credit." (Editing by Ibon Villelabeitia and Stephen Nisbet)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8516753

[cyberstievie]

Thomson Reuters
Turkey considers raising borrowing limit-sources
05.22.09, 06:40 AM EDT

ANKARA, May 22 (Reuters) - Turkey's government is considering raising the Treasury's borrowing limit this year after the budget deficit soared by 268 percent in the first four months of 2009, parliament sources said on Friday.

The Treasury is forced to borrow more as the economy is expected to contract by around five percent, reducing tax and privatisation revenues.

Parliament's planning and budget commission may start talks next week on a bill that will raise the net government borrowing limit to 75 billion lira ($48.9 billion) this year, up from a previous 48 billion limit.

Turkey has raised its budget deficit target this year to 48.3 billion lira from a previous 10.4 billion, but another revision is possible due to increased public sector spending aimed at stimulating the economy and cut record high unemployment.

'Talks on the bill will probably begin next week in the planning and budget commission,' a parliament commission source, who declined to be named, told Reuters.

Turkey is locked in inconclusive talks with the International Monetary Fund on a loan deal expected to reach $45 billion, which may ease the pressure on the Treasury financing needs and back Turkey's debt rollover ratios.

Signals from Turkish officials increasingly indicate the government is less keen on signing a deal, hoping it will manage without the fund.

(Reporting by Orhan Coskun and Hatice Aydogdu; Editing by Victoria Main) ($=1.5330 lira)

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/05/22/afx6455844.html

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DTRYEUR.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DTRYEUR.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DTRYUSD.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DTRYUSD.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

Hungarian forint, South African rand most vulnerable to selloff risk, Merrill says
Friday, May 22, 2009 02:42:00 PM

Global risk appetite may soon reach its short-term peak, and the subsequent turn may hit the Hungarian forint and the South African rand the hardest among emerging currencies, the London office of Merrill Lynch warned clients.

Merrill identified the forint and the rand as the most vulnerable emerging currencies as they have significantly outperformed regional peers. The analysts believe their excellent performance is not justified by economic fundamentals. This is the second warning from Merrill; the first reminder came about a week ago and coincided with an intense devaluation from 276 vs. the euro to 290. Since then, the forint has regained its previous strength.

As regards the South African rand, the strengthening of the currency was driven by massive capital influx, which may leave the country just as quickly as it arrived if investors lose confidence, the investment bank reminded. Merrill did not make any adjustments to target prices.

http://www.portfolio.hu/en/cikkek.tdp?cCheck=1&k=3&i=17661

[cyberstievie]

Hungary Committed to Budget Cuts Ahead of Bond Sale, Oszko Says

By Agnes Lovasz and Mark Barton

May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Hungary’s government is committed to overhauling its budget and expects austerity measures to boost investor confidence as it prepares for an international bond sale, Finance Minister Peter Oszko said.

“Recently there was a turning point” in fiscal policy, Oszko said in a telephone interview with Bloomberg Television today. “Financial risks are very quickly decreasing in terms of the whole budget. The Hungarian government is committed to implementing a reform program quite quickly.”

The European Union member needed a 20 billion euro ($27.2 billion) emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund, the EU and the World Bank last October to avert a default after its bond market froze. The country restarted regular debt sales in its local currency, the forint, last month and today held its fourth offering this year.

Oszko reiterated the country’s plan to return to international markets with a foreign-currency bond sale, adding the government hasn’t decided on the amount to be raised. The sale is planned for this year. To reassure markets of the country’s commitment to fiscal prudence, Hungary plans to cut 3.8 percent off budget expenditure, Oszko said.

“This can increase confidence towards Hungary,” he said. “And if markets have more risk appetite, that would be a positive opportunity for Hungary as well to get more funding from the market.”

Prime Minister Gordon Bajnai’s administration, which took over last month to lead the country until next year’s elections, plans to cut spending by 1.3 trillion forint ($6.4 billion) through the end of 2010. The government was also forced to forecast a wider budget deficit after the global economic slump deepened, undermining demand for Hungary’s exports and reducing tax receipts.

IMF Backing

The government now targets a budget shortfall of 3.9 percent of gross domestic product this year, compared with 2.9 percent earlier, and forecasts a GDP contraction of 6.7 percent, lowering a recent 6 percent estimate. The IMF and the EU, which provided the bulk of Hungary’s bailout, support the revisions, government and IMF officials said earlier this week in Budapest.

“First we need to do our homework here in Hungary and show to the outside world that Hungary is far less risky than before,” Oszko said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Agnes Lovasz in London at alovasz@bloomberg.net; Mark Barton in London at barton1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: May 21, 2009 05:59 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahQNN7wsibug&refer=home

[cyberstievie]

Analyst view: New mysteries in the Hungarian forint market
Friday, May 22, 2009 11:51:00 AM

“It remains difficult to explain changes in the value of the Hungarian forint with macroeconomic data or outlook factors," Commerzbank Treasury Sales Executive Zsolt Márvány commented in a morning review today. Whether hot money escaping from the weak US dollar will give a boost to the Hungarian forint is a crucial issue for the currency, Márvány argued.

“As for the advent of a new era, there is always a big problem: it is only in retrospect that you can be sure it was exactly what it appeared to be... Yesterday, the EUR/HUF rate rose even higher than 280, while trading this morning began at 278 once again. This seems like hesitant, indecisive behaviour, which can perhaps be even regarded as normal in light of the apparent disintegration of mechanisms we witnessed in recent months. It remains difficult to find macroeconomic data or outlook factors to explain to changes in the value of the forint; the currency is more likely to be driven by changes in investor confidence, speculation about a downgrade for the US and ensuing trouble. We have been working hard this morning trying to find out whether the forint will be losing value in parallel fashion with stock market losses? Or gain strength as hot money escapes from the weak US dollar? Or stay within the “electric fence" in a close range within 280 vs. the euro, spending the entire summer in a state of peaceful rumination?"

“After yesterday's negative outlook rating of Great Britain by Standard & Poor, the downgrade threat is now looming over the horizon for the US dollar, despite its spotless reputation as a last resort for investors for several decades. Unsurprisingly, markets are concerned. This explains the weakening of the US dollar, although the first response (EUR/USD close to 1.4) seems somewhat exaggerated. If downgrade fears linger on past the “three day wonder" phase, one may as well prepare for a permanent weakening of the dollar. To pick up the thread from the previous paragraph, in this scenario the next days or weeks may be a time for seeking a new path, new wisdoms, new enlightenment, and changes in the relation of developed and emerging currencies."

“Although the Swiss franc lost quite a bit vs. the euro, the weakening of the forint offset this effect and the CHF/HUF rate remained stable around 183 this morning."

http://www.portfolio.hu/en/cikkek.tdp?cCheck=1&k=3&i=17657

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DHUFEUR.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DHUFEUR.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DHUFCHF.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DHUFCHF.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

Barclays Recommends Investors Buy Real, Turkish Lira (Update2) :shock::-k:shock:[-(

By Lester Pimentel

May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s real, South Africa’s rand and Turkey’s lira offer the “largest upside” as investors return to the so-called carry trade, Barclays Plc said. :tssk:

A global pickup in investor demand for higher-yielding assets and signs the worst of the global recession is over “bode very well for the comeback of the emerging-market carry trade,” :-s analysts including Andrea Kiguel in New York wrote in a report. The carry trade refers to the practice where investors borrow funds in a country with lower interest rates and then invest the money in nations where returns are higher.

Brazil’s real has gained 18 percent in the past three months against the U.S. dollar while Turkey’s lira has advanced 10 percent. South Africa’s rand is up 22 percent, the best performing emerging-market currency in the past three months.

“As the decline of global risk aversion gives way to the re-pricing of U.S. dollar, we see potential for emerging-market foreign exchange to continue rallying,” :pale: analysts including Andrea Kiguel in New York wrote in a report.

Emerging-market currencies will also attract investors because interest rates in developing nations remain high relative to those in industrialized countries, Barclays said.

The dollar declined beyond $1.40 against the euro today for the first time since January on concern U.S. creditworthiness deteriorated and near-zero borrowing costs made the nation’s assets less attractive to investors.

Turkey’s key benchmark interest rate stands at 9.25 percent, compared with a range for overnight loans between banks of zero to 0.25 percent in the U.S. Brazil’s benchmark interest rate is 10.25 percent.

‘Excess of Euphoria’

Continued gains in emerging-market currencies have increased the risk that central banks may buy dollars in the foreign-exchange market to slow the rally, Barclays said.

Brazil’s central bank began buying dollars on May 8, the first purchases since September. Yesterday, Brazilian central bank President Henrique Meirelles cautioned investors not to load up on bets on the real as signs an “excess of euphoria” is building on the pace of the country’s economic recovery.

“With conditions set for continued emerging-market foreign-exchange strength, it is likely that emerging-market central banks start (or continue) to lean against the appreciation wind, #-o slowing or limiting the aforementioned upside as a result of dollar weakness and lower risk aversion,” Barclays said.

For Related News and Information: Top stories from Latin America: TOPL <GO> Top stories in emerging markets: TOP EM <GO>
Last Updated: May 22, 2009 15:02 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aSfEwXB3zIow&refer=latin_america#

[cyberstievie]

PIMCO's Gross: U.S. at risk of losing top AAA rating

* On Thursday May 21, 2009, 6:31 pm EDT

By Jennifer Ablan

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, warned on Thursday the United States will eventually lose its top AAA credit rating, a fear that had already spooked financial markets on Thursday and could keep the dollar, stocks and bonds under heavy selling pressure.

The United States will face a downgrade in "at least three to four years, if that, but the market will recognize the problems before the rating services -- just like it did today," Gross told Reuters.

Gross, the co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. and manager of the Pimco Total Return Fund, which has $154 billion in assets, earlier had told Reuters via email that market declines on Thursday were due to investor fears that the United States is "going the way of the UK -- losing AAA rating which affects all financial assets and the dollar."

Standard & Poor's on Thursday lowered its outlook on Britain to "negative" from "stable," threatening the nation's top AAA rating. Britain faces a one in three chance of a ratings cut as debt approaches 100 percent of gross domestic product.

European shares fell as S&P's potential UK credit cut added to worries sparked by news on Wednesday that Federal Reserve policy-makers had cut their U.S. growth forecasts over the next three years. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index of top shares fell 2.1 percent to 857.52 points, breaking five successive sessions of gains.

U.S. equities also slumped, and Treasuries and the dollar -- which typically rise on a bid for assets perceived as lower risk when stocks fall -- also declined as worries about swelling U.S. deficits soured investors on U.S. assets.

The Dow Jones industrial averageclosed down 129.91 points, or 1.54 percent, at 8,292.13, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 15.14 points, or 1.68 percent, at 888.33.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was down 51/32, with the yield at 3.3756 percent. The 2-year U.S. Treasury note was down 2/32, with the yield at 0.8668 percent. At the longer end of the yield curve, the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond was down 101/32, with the yield at 4.3304 percent.

In currencies, the dollar was down against a basket of major trading-partner currencies, with the U.S. Dollar Index down 0.76 percent at 80.57 from a previous session close of 81.190. The dollar extended losses against the yen, dipping below 94 yen for the first time in two months.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner also sounded alarms on the burgeoning budget deficit and its impact on the greenback.

"We must get our fiscal house in order or risk having government borrowing crowd out productive private investment," said Geithner in testimony before a congressional panel on Thursday. He said the administration has to make sure its policies help retain confidence in the dollar's value.

"My basic obligation is to make sure we put in place policies that sustain confidence in this economy, in our currency, that we sustain a strong dollar," Geithner said.

Meanwhile, U.S. credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service on Thursday said it is comfortable with the AAA rating on the United States, but it is not guaranteed forever.

"There are longer-term pressures on the rating, that's very clear," said Steven Hess, lead analyst for Moody's.

Standard & Poor's, asked on Thursday about market moves on concerns about the U.S. sovereign credit rating, cited its January affirmation of the AAA rating.

S&P analysts Nikola Swann and John Chambers wrote at that time that their affirmation came "despite our judgment that fiscal risk has noticeably increased," but saw that deterioration as temporary.

(Additional reporting by Dena Aubin and Walden Siew; Editing by Leslie Adler)

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Pimco-says-selloff-driven-by-rb-15319473.html;_ylt=AihlEuP0oDIrAhXp6Gnm6nq7YWsA?se c=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

[cyberstievie]

Hungarian Forint Slightly Off New Multi-month High Against Dollar
6/30/2009 4:2 AM ET
The Hungarian forint slipped against the dollar after reaching a new multi-month high of 192.47 at 2:25 am ET Tuesday. As of now, the dollar-forint pair is worth 194.14, compared to 195.40 hit late New York Monday. If the Hungarian currency falls further, it may likely target the 195 level.

Hungary's current account deficit stood at EUR 591 million in the first quarter, lower than a deficit of EUR 2.58 billion in the fourth quarter, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank or the central bank said today.

Meanwhile, the Hungarian Central Statistical Office said in a report that producer prices rose 6.2% year-on-year in May, after rising 7.2% in the preceding month. Economists expected an increase of 6%.

Month-on-month, producer prices dropped 2% in May, following a 1.9% fall in the preceding month. Domestic sales prices decreased 0.3%, while export prices were down 3.2%.

http://www.rttnews.com/Content/CurrencyMarket.aspx?Node=b3&Id=992550


http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DHUFUSD.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DHUFUSD.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DHUFEUR.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DHUFEUR.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

Thomson Reuters
Polish zloty up 1.2 pct vs euro on Wednesday
07.01.09, 08:14 AM EDT

WARSAW, July 1 (Reuters) - Poland's zloty gained 1.2 percent against the euro on Wednesday and broke a key level of 4.40/euro on rising risk appetite globally, gaining stocks and better PMI levels, Reuters systems showed.

'It can be seen that foreign banks are active and are buying the zloty, that's why the zloty is gaining,' a Warsaw-based dealer said.

At 1050 GMT, the zloty traded at a 5-week high of 4.39 against the single currency.

(Writing by Karolina Slowikowska)

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/07/01/afx6606974.html



http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DPLNUSD.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DPLNUSD.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DPLNEUR.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DPLNEUR.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

Zloty Rallies as Poland Says It May Begin Euro Entry This Year

By Laura Cochrane

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- The zloty rose the most in a week after Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski said Poland may enter the euro-adoption process this year and speculation of a global economic recovery drove investors to higher-yielding assets.

The zloty may be stable enough in the second half of the year for Poland to join the pre-euro Exchange Rate Mechanism, Rostowski told the Gazeta Prawna newspaper in an interview today. The zloty appreciated 1.3 percent to 4.3692 per euro at 5:30 p.m. in Warsaw, the biggest increase since July 1, leading the region’s currencies higher.

Expectations that Poland, the biggest of the 12 mostly ex- communist economies that joined the European Union since 2004, will adopt the euro helped the zloty surge to a record last year. It has weakened 5 percent against the euro this year as debt levels surged and the government forecast a widening in the budget deficit to 27 billion zloty ($8.3 billion), 48 percent more than initially planned and exceeding EU limits.

“The statement should be seen as a positive,” said Piotr Matys, a London-based analyst at financial market research company 4Cast Ltd.

Hungary’s forint added 1 percent versus Europe’s single currency to 275.85 and the Czech koruna advanced 0.2 percent to 26.006 per euro.

Poland must bring its budget gap to within the EU’s 3 percent limit of gross domestic product by 2012, less than half the 6.6 percent the commission estimates for Poland this year. To qualify for euro adoption, applicants must prove the stability of their currencies and keep public debt, deficits and inflation in check.

Obama Stimulus

Poland will struggle to meet the fiscal targets to enter the exchange-rate mechanism this year, said Martin Blum, head of emerging-markets economics and currency strategy at UniCredit SpA in Vienna.

“We’re not convinced,” Blum wrote in a research note today. “Though at the margin do see central and eastern Europe European monetary union newsflow improving against a more stable market backdrop.”

Emerging-market currencies, bonds and stocks gained after the International Monetary Fund yesterday upgraded its 2010 global growth forecast to 2.5 percent in 2010, compared with its April projection of 1.9 percent growth. The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest since January, the Labor Department said today in Washington.

“Moods in world financial markets improved after the publication of the IMF’s upward revision of economic forecasts,” analysts at Bank Zachodni WBK SA in Poland wrote today in a research note.

Obama Stimulus

U.S. President Barack Obama pressed for the door to remain open to more global stimulus measures by Group of Eight leaders at their annual meeting in L’Aquila, Italy. Governments have been pumping money into the global economy after the collapse of the U.S. property market in 2007 triggered more than $1.47 trillion of losses at financial institutions worldwide, cutting off credit to emerging Europe, reducing demand for their exports and causing currencies to plunge.

There is a “certain atmosphere of positive sentiment toward the zloty,” BRE Bank SA analysts including Ernest Pytlarczyk wrote in a note to clients.

The zloty will strengthen to 4.200 per euro in the next six months because Poland has “a better growth outlook than regional peers and improving balance of payments dynamics,” Jonathan Pinder, a London-based Goldman Sachs analyst wrote today in a client note.

To contact the reporter on this story: Laura Cochrane in London at lcochrane3@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: July 9, 2009 11:56 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=awuxtmKvS1Tw

[cyberstievie]

Konjunkturzuversicht treibt Euro auf Jahreshoch
Mittwoch, 16. September 2009, 16:04 Uhr

Frankfurt (Reuters) - Die Konjunkturzuversicht der Investoren hat dem Euro am Mittwoch auf ein Jahreshoch über 1,47 Dollar verholfen. In der Spitze wurden 1,4713 Dollar für die Gemeinschaftswährung gezahlt - so viel wie seit Dezember nicht mehr. Am Nachmittag nahmen einige Anleger ihre Gewinne mit, und der Euro notierte noch um 1,4660 Dollar.

Zu einem Korb aus sechs Währungen fiel der als sicherer Hafen geltende Dollar zeitweise auf den tiefsten Stand seit einem Jahr. Ein Auslöser für die neu entfachte Risikolust der Investoren waren Aussagen von US-Notenbankchef Ben Bernanke am Vorabend, wonach die Rezession in der weltgrößten Volkswirtschaft wohl überstanden sei. Am Mittwochnachmittag fielen dann noch die US-Statistiken zur Kapazitätsauslastung der Industrie und zur Industrieproduktion besser aus als erwartet. US-Inflationsdaten wurden Analysten zufolge als unbedenklich eingestuft. "Gute Konjunkturdaten auch aus den USA werden dem Dollar im Moment nicht zugerechnet", sagte ein Händler. "Vor allem wir hier in Europa sehen gerade alles durch eine rosarote Brille. Es hat sich eine unterschwellige Euphorie ausgebreitet, die dem eher mulmigen Gefühl auf der Strasse so gar nicht entspricht."

Viele Investoren folgten schlicht dem Trend, fühlten sich aber nicht wohl dabei. Ein Händler verwies auf die bevorstehende Bundestagswahl am 27. September. "Ich glaube, dass bis dahin der aktuelle Trend anhält. Aber danach kann ich mir vorstellen, dass die Märkte wieder aggressiver werden", ergänzte der Händler. "Viele warten darauf, dass sich der Trend umkehrt."

Für Japaner war die US-Währung so günstig wie seit sieben Monaten nicht mehr. Ein Dollar war für 90,13 (spätes Vortagesgeschäft: 91,03) Yen zu haben. Händler verwiesen auf Äußerungen des künftigen Finanzministers, wonach ein starker Yen für die heimische Wirtschaft vorteilhaft sei.

Am Rentenmarkt stiegen unterstützt von einer gut aufgenommenen Bund-Auktion zunächst die Kurse. Bis zum Nachmittag hinterließ aber auch hier die Suche nach rentableren Anlagen ihre Spuren. Der Bund-Future gab 22 Ticks nach auf 120,86 Zähler. Die zehnjährige Bundesanleihe rentierte mit 3,320 Prozent.

http://de.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idDEBEE58F0EY20090916


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[cyberstievie]

Roubinis Warnung
Die Fed sorgt für eine neue Monsterblase
Kommentar

Die lockere Geldpolitik hat eine gefährliche Dynamik losgetreten: Anleger können mit dem Dollar zum Minuszins in Risikoanlagen investieren - bis diese Carry-Trades zusammenbrechen. von Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini ist Professor an der Stern School of Business der Universität von New York.

Seit März boomen alle möglichen Arten risikobehafteter Anlageklassen - Aktien, Öl, Energie, Rohstoffe. Parallel dazu sind die renditestarken Risikoaufschläge gesunken. Der Dollar hat zudem deutlich an Wert verloren, während die Renditen von Staatsanleihen sanft angestiegen sind, aber weiter auf niedrigem und stabilem Niveau liegen.
Diese Erholung von Risikoanlagen hängt teilweise mit einer Verbesserung der Wirtschaftsdaten zusammen. Egal, ob sich die konjunkturelle Erholung V-förmig gestaltet - wie die Mehrheit glaubt - oder ob sie U-förmig und blutleer ausfällt, wie ich es glaube: Die Vermögenspreise sollten sich nach oben bewegen. Gemessen an den makroökonomischen Kennzahlen sind sie aber zu stark, zu früh und zu schnell gestiegen.Was steckt dahinter? Natürlich war die Liquiditätsflut durch die Notenbanken eine Hilfe. Aber noch wichtiger ist die Schwäche des US-Dollar, die durch die Mutter aller Carry-Trades beflügelt wird. Da die Fed die Zinsen eingefroren hat, ist der Dollar zur Hauptwährung bei Carry-Trades geworden. Dabei verschulden sich Leerverkäufer in einer schwachen Währung und kaufen renditestärkere Vermögenswerte in einer stärkeren. Im Fall des Dollar leihen sie sich ihr Geld nicht nur zum Nullzins, sondern zu negativen Zinsen -
aufs Jahr gerechnet von teilweise 10 oder 20 Prozent. Der Grund: Der Kursverfall des Dollar führt zu massiven Kapitalgewinnen bei Short-Positionen in Dollar. Investoren leihen sich also zu 20 Prozent Minuszins Geld, das sie weltweit in eine Vielzahl von Anlageklassen stecken, die sich aufgrund von überschüssiger Liquidität und einem massiven Carry-Trade verteuern. Die Renditen seit März liegen bei 50 bis 70 Prozent. Jeder Anleger, der dieses riskante Spiel mitmacht, wirkt wie ein Genie, auch wenn er nur auf einer gewaltigen Blase reitet.
Dabei müssten sich Investoren beim Blick aufs Portfolio eigentlich um den Value-at-Risk verstärkt sorgen. Der Grund ist die wachsende Wechselbeziehung zwischen Risiken unterschiedlicher Anlageklassen, die allesamt von einer gemeinsamen Geldpolitik und dem Carry-Trade getragen werden. Letztlich ist ein einziger großer Handel entstanden - mit Dollar-Leerverkäufen werden x-beliebige riskante Anlagen gekauft.
Stattdessen nimmt das wahrgenommene Risiko einzelner Vermögensklassen ab, da die Volatilität dadurch verringert wird, dass die Fed alles aufkauft. Da die einzelnen Vermögensklassen sich identisch entwickeln, gibt es inzwischen wenig Diversifizierung.

Der kombinierte Effekt aus Nullzinspolitik der Fed, quantitativer Lockerung und massivem Aufkauf langfristiger Schuldeninstrumente macht die Welt vermeintlich sicherer - nämlich für die Mutter aller Carry-Trades und die Mutter aller stark gehebelten Vermögensblasen. Diese Politik nährt aber die weltweite Vermögensblase. Und sie fördert auch eine neue Vermögensblase in den USA. Ein schwacher Dollar ist gut für US-Aktien, weil er die im Ausland erzielten Gewinne amerikanischer Konzerne erhöht.
Die leichtsinnige US-Politik, die diesen Carry-Trades Vorschub leistet, zwingt andere Länder, der lockeren Geldpolitik zu folgen. Die Zentralbanken könnten zudem gezwungen sein, die Zinssätze durch Offenmarktgeschäfte im eigenen Land zu senken.
Gibt es keine Devisenintervention, und die ausländischen Währungen werten auf, werden die ohnehin negativen Kreditkosten des Carry-Trade noch negativer. Regulieren eine Intervention oder Offenmarktgeschäfte die Aufwertung, nährt die daraus folgende geldpolitische Lockerung eine Vermögensblase in diesen anderen Volkswirtschaften. Die über alle globalen Vermögensklassen perfekt korrelierte Blase wird also mit jedem Tag größer.
Eines Tages wird diese Blase platzen und zum größten koordinierten Vermögenskollaps der Geschichte führen. Wertet der Dollar plötzlich wieder auf - wie beim Yen-finanzierten Carry-Trade zu beobachten war -, muss der gehebelte Carry-Trade plötzlich geschlossen werden, da Anleger ihre Dollar-Short-Positionen abdecken. Es wird zu einer Massenpanik kommen, da das Decken riskanter gehebelter Long-Positionen über alle Vermögensklassen hinweg einen koordinierten Zusammenbruch all dieser risikobehafteten Vermögenswerte auslöst.

Warum werden die Carry-Trades zusammenbrechen? Erstens kann der Dollar nicht auf null fallen, er wird sich irgendwo stabilisieren. Dann sind die Kreditkosten in Dollar plötzlich null statt stark negativ. Das Risiko, dass der Dollar wieder aufwertet, würde viele dazu veranlassen, ihre Short-Positionen abzudecken. Zweitens kann die Fed Volatilität nicht ewig unterdrücken. Im Frühjahr wird ihr 1800 Mrd. $ schwerer Kaufplan beendet sein. Wenn drittens das US-Wachstum demnächst positiv überrascht, könnten die Märkte damit rechnen, dass die Fed früher, nicht später, zu straffen beginnt. Viertens könnte Angst vor einem Rückkehr der Rezession oder vor einem geopolitischen Konflikt eine Flucht vor dem Risiko auslösen.
2008 ging eine solche Zunahme der Risikoscheu mit einer starken Aufwertung des Dollar einher, weil die Anleger die Sicherheit der US-Staatsanleihen suchten. Und genau wie vergangenes Jahr könnte diese erneute Risikoscheu eine Dollar-Rally zu einem Zeitpunkt lostreten, da riesige Leerverkaufspositionen in Dollar geschlossen werden müssen.
Je länger und größer die Carry-Trades werden, desto stärker wird der darauf folgende Zusammenbruch. Die Fed und andere politischen Entscheider scheinen sich nicht bewusst zu sein, welch eine Monsterblase sie erschaffen.

Aus der FTD vom 03.11.2009

http://www.ftd.de/politik/konjunktur/:roubinis-warnung-die-fed-sorgt-fuer-eine-neue-monsterblase/50032096.html

[Rüdiger_Z]

Trotz des allgemeinen recht negativen Konsens zum Euro, halte ich es für übertrieben von Kursen um die 1,20 zu sprechen. In den nächsten Monaten werden die 1,30 halten, davon gehe ich aus. Auch ist die Währung momentan stark überverkauft.

[clubfan]

Mal ne Frage: kennt jemand einen seriösen Managed Forex Account? Über google find ich zwar etliche, aber welcher seriös ist, weiß ich davon auch net :-)

Thx!

[cyberstievie]

Kampf gegen die Schuldenkrise
110 Milliarden Euro für Athen

Griechenlands Partner in Europa haben eine Hilfe von 110 Milliarden Euro für Athen beschlossen. Damit wollen die Euro-Staaten und der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) den drohenden Staatsbankrott Griechenlands abwenden. Deutschland muss sich an dem Hilfspaket mit rund 22 Milliarden Euro beteiligen.

03. Mai 2010 Der Rettungsplan der Euro-Staaten und des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) für Griechenland ist beschlossen. Die Finanzminister des Euro-Raums und der IWF sagten am Sonntag in gleich lautenden Erklärungen zu, dass Athen in den Jahren bis 2012 Kredite von bis zu 110 Milliarden Euro erhalten soll. Auf die Euro-Staaten sollen davon 80 Milliarden Euro entfallen, auf den IWF 30 Milliarden. Bundesfinanzminister Schäuble sagte nach dem Treffen in Brüssel, der deutsche Anteil werde in den drei Jahren etwas mehr als 22,4 Milliarden Euro betragen. Es sei „keine leichte Entscheidung“ gewesen. Sie sei aber für die Stabilität des Euro „ohne Alternative“.

Voraussetzung für die Kreditzusagen an Griechenland war ein weiteres Reform- und Sparprogramm, das in den vergangenen Tagen zwischen Athen und Fachleuten des IWF, der EU-Kommission und der Europäischen Zentralbank ausgehandelt worden war. Die griechische Regierung hat es am Sonntag beschlossen. Für die Griechen bedeutet es unter anderem weitere Steuererhöhungen, drastische Gehaltskürzungen und einen späteren Renteneintritt. Der griechische Finanzminister Papakonstantinou kündigte an, alle Gehaltszuschüsse und Sondervergütungen für Staatsbedienstete würden um weitere acht Prozent gekürzt. Außerdem sollen verschiedene Steuern ein weiteres Mal erhöht werden. Zu den Auswirkungen des Programms im Inland sagte der Minister, es sei „nicht die Zeit, an die politischen Kosten zu denken“. Zuvor hatte Ministerpräsident Papandreou geäußert, oberstes Gebot sei „die Rettung des Vaterlandes“. Aus diesem Grund habe er dem harten Sparprogramm zugestimmt.

Die Euro-Minister billigten das Programm und lobten Griechenland. Schäuble sagte, wer in der innenpolitischen Diskussion die griechische Politik kritisiere, vergesse allzu leicht, was den Griechen nun zugemutet werde. Die positive Bewertung durch die Euro-Gruppe ist die Voraussetzung für die schnelle parlamentarische Beratung des Rettungspakets und der damit verbundenen Finanzierungszusagen in den Mitgliedstaaten.

Formell müssen nun noch die Staats- und Regierungschefs der Euro-Staaten und das IWF-Exekutivdirektorium entscheiden. Beide Gremien wollen dies schnell tun. Für diesen Freitag ist ein Sonder-Gipfeltreffen der Staats- und Regierungschefs des Euro-Raums in Brüssel anberaumt. In etwas mehr als einer Woche könnte dann das erste Geld fließen.

Die Gefahr eines Staatsbankrotts gebannt

Die griechische Regierung hob hervor, dass mit dem jetzigen Programm die Gefahr eines Staatsbankrotts gebannt sei. Das Rettungspaket decke etwa ein Drittel der derzeitigen griechischen Staatsschuld ab. Das Land könne damit alle seine Zahlungsverpflichtungen der kommenden 18 Monate sowie die Zinsen für seine Anleihen im Programmzeitraum bedienen. Eine weitere Finanzierung am Markt plane die Regierung in diesem Zeitraum nicht. Der IWF-Verhandlungsführer Poul Thomsen sagte in Washington, eine Umschuldung habe nie zur Debatte gestanden. Der IWF sei der Meinung, dass ein solcher Schritt nicht im Interesse Griechenlands liege.

Das neue Sparpaket geht deutlich über die Konsolidierungszusagen Athens vom März hinaus. Vor allem zu Beginn des Programms - in diesem Jahr - soll Griechenland noch mehr sparen als bisher geplant. So soll das für 2009 auf 13,6 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) taxierte Staatsdefizit in diesem Jahr nicht nur - wie im laufenden EU-Defizitverfahren zugesagt - um vier, sondern um sechseinhalb Prozentpunkte des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) sinken. In den Folgejahren muss das Defizit um vier Punkte (2011), zweieinhalb (2012) und dann noch einmal um je zwei Punkte sinken. Athen hat nun ein Jahr mehr - also bis 2014 - Zeit, um das Defizit erstmals wieder unter den Maastrichter Referenzwert von drei Prozent des BIP zu senken.

Auch Lob von Merkel
Wie Bundesfinanzminister Schäuble begrüßte auch Bundeskanzlerin Merkel die Absprachen mit Griechenland. Am Mittag hatte sie mit dem griechischen Ministerpräsidenten telefoniert. Am Samstag hatte sie sich mit dem französischen Staatspräsidenten Sarkozy abgestimmt. Am Sonntagnachmittag waren die Staatssekretäre der Bundesregierung zu einer Telefonschaltkonferenz verabredet, um die Arbeiten an dem Gesetzentwurf zu beenden. Dieser soll als Formulierungshilfe den Koalitionsfraktionen zugeleitet werden. Zur Beschleunigung des Verfahrens sollen die Fraktionen von Union und FDP den Gesetzentwurf in den Bundestag einbringen. In der Bundesregierung hieß es, Frau Merkel werde die erste Lesung des Gesetzes am Mittwoch mit einer Regierungserklärung einleiten.

EU-Kommissionspräsident Barroso unterstützte am Wochenende grundsätzlich die Forderung der Bundeskanzlerin, den EU-Stabilitätspakt zu stärken. Entsprechende Vorschläge will seine Behörde in der kommenden Woche vorlegen. Frau Merkels am Wochenende abermals erhobene Forderung, Euro-Staaten mit unsolider Haushaltspolitik „in letzter Konsequenz“ aus der Währungsunion auszuschließen, wies Barroso zurück.

Die Kernpunkte des Sparpakets

Zusätzlich zu den bereits verfügten Einsparungen will Athen über drei Jahre 30 Milliarden Euro weniger ausgeben. In diesem Jahr soll das Defizit, das 2009 bei 13,6 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts gelegen hatte, um fünf Punkte und im kommenden Jahr um vier Punkte gesenkt werden. Für 2012/2013 sind je zwei Punkte geplant.

Die Mehrwertsteuer wird auf 23 nach 21 Prozent angehoben. Sie war bereits im März um zwei Punkte erhöht worden. Die Steuern auf Treibstoff, Zigaretten und Alkohol steigen um weitere zehn Prozent. Zusätzlich Einnahmen will der Staat durch eine einmalige Steuer für besonders rentable Unternehmen und Abgaben auf Vermögen generieren.

Die Bonuszahlungen im öffentlichen Dienst werden stark eingeschränkt, auch die Beamtenpensionen sinken. So fallen das Weihnachts-, Oster- und Sommerurlaubsgeld für Bezieher von Einkommen über 3000 Euro weg, für die unteren Besoldungsgruppen werden die Boni bei 1000 Euro eingefroren. Die Sonderzahlungen waren bereits im März um 30 Prozent gekürzt worden.

Beihilfen für den öffentlichen Dienst werden um weitere acht Prozent gekürzt, nachdem sie zuvor schon um zwölf Prozent gekappt worden waren. Die Beihilfen machten bisher einen erheblichen Anteil am Einkommen der Staatsbediensteten aus.

Frühpensionierungen vor dem 60. Geburtstag soll es nicht mehr geben. Bis 2015 wird die Lebensarbeitszeit, die zum Bezug der vollen Rente berechtigt, schrittweise von 37 auf 40 Jahre angehoben. Die Renten werden dahingehend gekürzt, dass ihre Höhe das ganze Arbeitsleben und nicht das Einkommen der letzten Berufsjahre widerspiegelt.

Das Rentenalter, das derzeit offiziell 65 Jahre für Männer und 60 Jahre für Frauen beträgt, soll der längeren Lebenserwartung entsprechend angehoben werden.

Für die Privatwirtschaft soll der Kündigungsschutz gelockert werden. Gegenwärtig dürfen Firmen nicht mehr als zwei Prozent ihrer Beschäftigten pro Monat entlassen. Auch die Entschädigungsregelungen für ausscheidende Mitarbeiter sollen gelockert werden. Für junge Leute und Langzeitarbeitslose wird ein neuer Mindestlohn eingeführt.

Text: FAZ.NET
Bildmaterial: AFP, AP, dpa, F.A.Z., reuters

http://www.faz.net/s/Rub3ADB8A210E754E748F42960CC7349BDF/Doc~E608B57F32557432C8F7952451943B15F~ATpl~Ecommon ~Scontent.html

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&from=1237028400&to=1253095200&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&ind0=RSI&&currency=&&lSyms=DUSDEUR.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DUSDEUR.TGT&hcmask=

:shock::-k:---);-)
Trotz des allgemeinen recht negativen Konsens zum Euro, halte ich es für übertrieben von Kursen um die 1,20 zu sprechen. In den nächsten Monaten werden die 1,30 halten, davon gehe ich aus. Auch ist die Währung momentan stark überverkauft.

[cyberstievie]

Hungary forint pounded further, already above 279 vs. EUR
May 5, 2010, 4:00 pm
Hungarian version

Hungary’s forint shed more than 2.5% against the euro in Tuesday trading, easing to around 276 by the end of the session. After relaxing briefly in early morning session, the HUF has continued to ease on Wednesday amidst bitter investor sentiment. The USD remains extremely strong against key currencies and leading European stock indices continued to decline.

15:30

There seems to be no stop for the USD’s offensive against the euro, which is exerting an ever greater pressure on EM currencies, including Hungary’s forint. The HUF has just eased to above 279 to the EUR, a height it has not been at since mid-December 2009.

The violent protests in Greece against the planned severe austerity measures to avoid sovereign default are casting a large shadow over international market sentiment. According to different reports, there are 100,000 to 200,000 people on the streets in the Greek capital, demonstrating against the measures to be voted on on Thursday. Rioters were throwing petrol bombs, bricks and road signs and targeted banks and government buildings in Athens. A fire-bomb attack on a bank left at least three people dead as police fought pitched battles with striking protesters.

14:50

While some calm crept back onto the global money and capital markets in the morning and as a result the HUF firmed back to 275 from 278, the tables have turned again and a warning by rating agency Moody’s has only added oil to the flames.

Moody's Investor Services warned it may downgrade Portugal's Aa2 debt rating in the next three months, citing a weakening in the country’s public finances as well as its long-term growth prospects.

Its warning comes only a week after its rival Standard & Poor's cut its rating and stoked market concerns that the crisis in Greece was spreading through the eurozone.

Moody's said Portugal's rating could fall by one, or at most two, notches and that the review is expected to be concluded within three months.

The USD appreciated to below 1.29 versus the euro, which pushed the HUF back to its morning lowest at 277.50.

9:55

Hungary’s forint has barely caught its breath when sellers took the floor and the HUF eased to 277.70 from around 276 by around 10:00 CET on the interbank market.

The moving force behind the HUF’s depreciation remains the US dollar’s strengthening on the world market that is linked to the gloomy global investor mood. In times like this investors seek risk-free assets for their money. Southern European stock indices are already down by about 2.5%.

The source of concerns remains sovereign debts and how SE countries will be able to finance these. It has become clear since Tuesday that the decision to throw an international lifebelt to Greece failed to ease jitters. Moreover, concerns about the Greek debt have begun to fuel worries about the debts of Portugal, Spain and Italy, as well.

The HUF is currently quoted at around 214 to the USD and 194 vs. the Swiss franc on the interbank market.

08:37

The HUF has not been this weak versus the single European currency since end-December 2009. It has been briefly quoted even at 276.50 and was around 276 at 08:35 CET on the interbank market.

As you can see from the chart below, the HUF depreciated in tandem with Poland’s zloty and their easing was almost exactly as strong as the dollar’s gain against the euro. The greenback has firmed to around 1.2950 to the EUR today, which marks a 12-m strongest for the USD. The USD gained some 3% to the EUR since Monday, while the HUF and the PLN eased by about that much.

http://www.portfolio.hu/img/upload/2010/05/100505HUF02.jpg

From a technical analysis point of view, it is of key importance that the 200-day moving average (around 274.50) was breached, which points to further HUF weakening. The forint’s marked depreciation in mid-December last year (linked to the Dubai sovereign default crisis) turned around at 278-279, so it may be worth keeping an eye on these levels now as well.

The forint depreciated to 213 from 204 to the greenback on Tuesday, a 12-m low for the HUF. USD/HUF is currently at around 212.50.
Versus the Swiss franc the forint eased to 193 by late Tuesday and is currently quoted at around 192.50, yes, also a 12-m low for the HUF.

European stocks futures indices are up 0.3%, which indicates that the decline on the markets may not continue in Europe. Meanwhile, the USD has given back some vs. the EUR and is approaching 1.30. This implies a moderate improvement in market sentiment, but we should expect no rally on European stock, bond and FX markets after the past few days’ plummets.

http://www.portfolio.hu/en/cikkek.tdp?k=3&i=20048

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DHUFUSD.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DHUFUSD.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DHUFEUR.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DHUFEUR.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

Bloomberg
Forint Drops, Hungary Bond Risk Jumps on Central Bank, Greece
April 28, 2010, 11:17 AM EDT

By Piotr Skolimowski

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Hungary’s forint posted its biggest two-day drop in more than a year and the cost of protecting against a national default jumped on the new ruling party’s call for the central bank president to quit and on credit downgrades for Greece and Portugal.

The forint weakened as much 1.3 percent against the euro, bringing the two-day intraday loss to 3.6 percent, the biggest since March 30, 2009. It pared the depreciation to trade 0.3 percent weaker at 269.89 per euro as of 4:40 p.m. in Budapest on speculation European officials will accelerate assistance to Greece.

The cost of credit default swaps, contracts protecting against failure of borrowers to repay debt, rose 23.5 basis points to 240, according to CMA DataVision prices. That’s the highest for Hungary since Feb. 18, according to Bloomberg data.

East European stocks declined for a second day, led by a 2 percent decrease in the BUX of Hungary, the first European Union member to get an international bailout in the credit crisis. Viktor Orban’s ruling party, which has criticized the central bank for deepening the economic crisis by keeping interest rates too high, said yesterday central bank President Andras Simor should resign. Greek two-year note yields surged to 21.4 percent after the Standard & Poor’s downgrades.

“Given the combination of escalating risk aversion in the region due to the Greek situation and somewhat worrisome comments from Orban, we recommend investors stay on the sidelines of the Hungarian markets for now,” emerging-market analysts at Danske Bank AS led by Lars Christensen wrote in a note to clients.

Zloty, Bonds

Fidesz won a two-thirds majority in the election concluded on April 25, giving the next administration enough power to change any laws including the constitution. Orban said on April 26 that the central bank shouldn’t be a place for “offshore knights,” referring to Simor’s investments in Cyprus. The Magyar Nemzeti Bank chief should resign, Zoltan Pokorni, vice chairman at Fidesz, said yesterday.

Simor was appointed for a six-year term on March 3, 2007, by Socialist Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany. The Socialists were ousted in the elections after eight years in power. His resignation would make him the third Hungarian central bank chief since the end of communism in 1990 to leave before his term ends.

The Fidesz call for Simor to quit is unnerving investors who credit the policy maker with helping restore confidence in the country, Nomura International Plc said in an e-mail yesterday.

Poland’s zloty depreciated 0.1 percent to 3.9333 against the euro and Romania’s leu weakened 0.4 percent to 4.1392. The Czech koruna gained 0.1 percent to 25.582 against the euro.

--Editors: John Kohut, Alex Nicholson.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-28/forint-drops-hungary-bond-risk-jumps-on-central-bank-greece.html

[cyberstievie]

Bloomberg
Polish Zloty Declines Most in 11 Months on Greece Contagion
May 05, 2010, 11:47 AM EDT

By Krystof Chamonikolas and Piotr Skolimowski

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Poland’s zloty weakened the most in more than 11 months as concern Greece’s bailout may have to be extended to other indebted nations drove investors from riskier assets in emerging markets.

The zloty weakened as much as 2.6 percent, the biggest intraday retreat since May 28 last year, and traded down 2 percent at 4.0838 per euro as of 5:20 p.m. in Warsaw. It was the worst performer among more than 170 currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Romania’s leu weakened 1 percent against the common European currency while Hungary’s forint slid 0.8 percent and the Czech koruna was down 0.7 percent.

The MSCI Emerging Markets index fell 1.9 percent to a two- month low and the euro declined against the dollar to its weakest in more than a year on concern that Europe’s debt crisis may derail the global economic recovery. European stocks and currencies extended losses after Moody’s Investors Service put Portugal’s Aa2 rating under review for a possible downgrade.

“The market is concerned about some full-scale financial crisis,” Baron Chan, a currency strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG in London, said by phone today. “Last time we had” Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., whose bankruptcy in September 2008 deepened the global financial crisis, “and this time it’s about the euro zone. People are trying to price the risk. The market has been long the zloty so they are now closing the positions as they are concerned about what could happen next.”

Poland’s borrowing costs rose for the first time this year at an auction of two-year bonds as demand retreated for the nation’s debt. The country’s bonds fell to a two-month low, pushing the yield on the benchmark 5.75 percent government note due in April 2014 up 15 basis points from yesterday to 5.278 percent. That compares with 4.856 percent two weeks ago.

‘Pain Trade’

BNP Paribas SA said in a report to clients earlier today that Polish assets are vulnerable to a selloff because of the degree of investment in the only European Union state that avoided a recession last year.

“Positioning” in Poland “is very concentrated on all asset classes and the degree of confidence in the trade is relatively high, making it the pain trade” par excellence, analysts at France’s biggest bank wrote. “In addition, there are no concerns of financial stability, hence authorities will not try to tame” the zloty’s weakness.

--Editors: John Kohut, Stephen Kirkland.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-05/polish-zloty-declines-most-in-11-months-on-greece-contagion.html


http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DPLNUSD.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DPLNUSD.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=14&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DPLNEUR.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DPLNEUR.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

WAHNSINN! We saw the Black Swan... on May 5, 2010! :shock:
Die Massenvernichtungswaffen an den Märkten haben heute zugeschlagen. >500 Dow-Punkte Minus in 5 Minuten, das geht in kein Modell rein... bald wird man wohl erfahren, wen's heute alles zerlegt hat. :-k#-o:twisted:](*,)

Dass irgendwas aus dem Ruder läuft hatte sich in der Woche ja schon angedeutet mit den für die kurze Zeit extremen Währungsbewegungen... siehe Postings von gestern abend! :pale:


Marktbericht New York
Dow stürzt zeitweise mehr als neun Prozent ab

In einer dramatischen halben Stunde hat der Dow-Jones-Index der Standardwerte am Donnerstag 1 000 Punkte verloren, so viel wie nie zuvor. Nur 15 Minuten später hatte der Dow 600 Punkte davon wieder gutgemacht. Das US-Börsenbarometer schloss mit dem höchsten prozentualen Verlust seit April 2009. Zeitweise herrschte blanke Panik am Markt.

HB NEW YORK. Investoren zeigten sich enttäuscht, dass die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) keine zusätzlichen Maßnahmen ergriff, um ein Ausweiten der Schuldenkrise auf andere Länder zu vermeiden. "Es herrscht ein Unbehagen, das anscheinend von Tag zu Tag schlimmer wird, weil die Angst vor Ansteckung zunimmt", sagte Craig Peckham, Stratege bei Jefferies & Company. Die EZB erklärte sich nicht bereit, Hellas-Anleihen zu kaufen. Verstärkt wurde der Abwärtstrend von enttäuschenden Einzelhandels-Zahlen.

Der Dow-Jones-Index der Standardwerte ging mit einem Minus von 3,2 Prozent bei 10 520 Punkten aus dem Handel. Er brach im Handelsverlauf mehr als neun Prozent ein und pendelte damit zwischen 9869 und 10 879 Stellen. Der breiter gefasste S&P-500-Index verlor 3,24 Prozent auf 1128 Zähler. Der Index der Technologiebörse Nasdaq fiel 3,44 Prozent auf 2319 Punkte. In Frankfurt ging der Dax mit einem Minus von 0,8 Prozent bei 5908 Punkten aus dem Handel.

Der Leitindex verlor am Nachmittag gegen 15 Uhr (Ortszeit; 21 Uhr MESZ) vorübergehend fast 1000 Punkte im Vergleich zum Schlusskurs des Vortags. Mit dem zwischenzeitlichen Minus von mehr als neun Prozent verzeichnete der Dow-Jones-Index der Standardwerte sogar den größten Absturz innerhalb eines Handelstags seit seinem Bestehen. Der Verlust halbierte sich dann aber bei hektischem Nachmittagshandel binnen Minuten auf 470 Punkte. Den größten Ausschlag nach unten gab es, als Händler Bilder von neuen Zusammenstößen in Athen sahen, wo das Parlament zuvor das einschneidende Sparprogramm gebilligt hatte. :-s:-?[-X

"Der Markt erkennt nun, dass Griechenland in den nächsten paar Jahren eine Depression durchmachen wird", sagte der Analyst Peter Boockvar von Miller Tabak. "Europa ist ein wichtiger Handelspartner von uns, und das bedroht die gesamte globale Wachstums-Story." Auch die US-Ölpreise gerieten unter massiven Druck. In der Spitze gab der Preis eines Fasses der Sorte WTI um 6,7 Prozent auf 74,58 Dollar nach. Die Feinunze Gold kostete in New York mehr als 1 200 Dollar.

Neben dem Dow brachen auch die anderen wichtigen Indizes zeitweise um bis zu neun Prozent ein. Ob ein Systemfehler die mögliche Ursache dafür war, wie der Fernsehsender CNBC berichtete, war zunächst unklar. Die New York Stock Exchange wies dies zurück. Die Nasdaq erklärte, sie arbeite mit anderen Marktbetreibern zusammen, um den Kursverfall unter die Lupe zu nehmen.

Im Mittelpunkt des Handels stand wieder einmal die Schuldenkrise Griechenlands. "Das sind Panikverkäufe", sagte Keith Springer von Capital Financial Advisory Services. Daten vom US-Einzelhandel dämpften zudem die Hoffnungen auf eine schnelle Erholung der Wirtschaft. "Obwohl viele Leute in die Läden gehen, geben sie anscheinend nichts aus", sagte Tim Ghriskey, Analyst bei Solaris Asset Management. Elf von 17 Einzelhändlern blieben mit ihrem Umsatz hinter den Erwartungen zurück, darunter führende Einzelhändler wie der Discounter Costco Wholesale und die Modekette Gap. Die Aktien von Costco gaben knapp vier Prozent nach und die von Gap über sieben Prozent.

Nachrichten aus Deutschland lasteten auf Solarwerten. Nachdem der Bundestag am Donnerstag die umstrittene Kürzung der Solarförderung beschlossen hatte, gaben Solaraktien nach. Papiere von Trina Solar fielen 14 Prozent, Yingli Green Energy Holding elf Prozent und Suntech Power Holdings zehn Prozent. Deutschland ist der größte Markt für Solarenergie und obwohl die Kürzungen seit längerem erwartet wurden, hatten einige Analysten gehofft, sie würden verschoben.

Die Aktie von Freddie Mac fiel nach Vorlage der Quartalszahlen 6,3 Prozent. Der verstaatlichte Hypothekenfinanzierer erweist sich für die US-Regierung als Fass ohne Boden. Das Unternehmen bat am Mittwoch nach einem neuen Milliardenverlust um eine weitere Finanzspritze von 10,6 Mrd. Dollar und warnte gleichzeitig, wegen der Flaute am Immobilienmarkt in Zukunft weitere Hilfen zu benötigen.

Unter Druck standen auch Aktien von Breitbandanbietern. Die US-Regulierungsbehörde konnte mir ihrer Zusicherung, den Markt für Internetanbieter weiterhin nur wenig regulieren zu wollen, nicht überzeugen. Aktien von Comcast fielen über sechs Prozent, die von Time Warner Cable um acht Prozent und die von Cablevision Systems sieben Prozent.

Federn ließen auch die Papiere großer US-Fluggesellschaften. Die Anteilsscheine der United-Muttergesellschaft UAL fielen neun Prozent, die vom Fusionspartner Continental 7,6 Prozent. Der Markt mache sich Sorgen, dass sich die griechische Schuldenkrise ausweite und andere Branchen in Mitleidenschaft ziehen könnte, sagte S&P-Analyst Jim Corridore.

An der New York Stock Exchange wechselten rund 2,57 Mrd. Aktien den Besitzer. 173 Werte legten zu, 2998 gaben nach und 26 blieben unverändert. An der Nasdaq schlossen bei Umsätzen von 4,42 Mrd. Aktien 330 im Plus, 2418 im Minus und 53 unverändert. An den US-Kreditmärkten stiegen die zehnjährigen Staatsanleihen um einen Punkt und 8/32 auf 101-28/32. Sie rentierten mit 3,3975 Prozent. Die 30-jährigen Bonds kletterten drei Punkte und 14//32 auf 107-09/32 und hatten eine Rendite von 4,1916 Prozent.

Euro fällt unter 1,26 Dollar

Der Euro setzte seine Talfahrt ungebremst fort. Die europäische Gemeinschaftswährung fiel am Donnerstagabend unter die Marke von 1,26 Dollar bis auf 1,2520 Dollar. Angesichts der Schuldenkrise Griechenlands und der steigenden Sorgen über eine Ausbreitung auf andere Länder der Euro-Zone flüchteten Händler in sichere Häfen wie den Dollar. "Das sind Panikverkäufe", sagte Devisenstratege Brian Dolan von Forex.com. "Die Schuldenkrise in Europa hat den Ball ins Rollen gebracht und jetzt herrscht nur noch Panik." Im Verlauf machte der Euro wieder ein wenig Boden gut, pendelte aber zuletzt um die Marke von 1,26 Dollar.


http://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/marktberichte/marktbericht-new-york-dow-stuerzt-zeitweise-mehr-als-neun-prozent-ab;2575899

https://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=1d&type=CONNECTLINE&asc=lin&dsc=abs&from=1271757600&to=1273140000&avg1=100&avg2=50&avgtype=simple&ind1=RSI&&currency=&&lSyms=DJI.DJI&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DJI.DJI&hcmask=https://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&from=1271757600&to=1273140000&avg1=200&avg2=100&avg3=10&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&ind0=RSI&&currency=&&lSyms=DJI.DJI&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DJI.DJI&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

10.05.2010, 00:44
Rettungspaket
EU bastelt an 600-Milliarden-Paket zur Euro-Rettung

Die Europäer meinen es ernst mit ihrem Kampf gegen die Staatspleitenpanik an den Märkten. Sie schmieden deshalb ein Paket in bislang kaum geahnter Höhe. Kleinere Staaten leisten offenbar Widerstand. Sie fürchten, so viel Geld nicht berappen zu können. Dennoch ist der Durchbruch bei den Verhandlungen nah. von Peter Ehrlich, Ina Linden und Thomas Schmoll

Die Europäische Union will der Staatspleitenpanik an den Märkten und Wetten gegen den Euro mit einem gigantischen Milliardenkonzept begegnen. Auf einem Krisentreffen diskutierten die EU-Finanzminister am Sonntagabend in Brüssel nach FTD-Informationen einen 600 Mrd. Euro schweren Mechanismus zur Rettung von Ländern, die von Zahlungsunfähigkeit bedroht sind. Erklärtes Ziel war es, ein Ergebnis zu erzielen, ehe die internationalen Finanzmärkte vollständig öffnen. In Fernost machte der Euro an Boden gut.

Der Betrag soll sich wie folgt zusammensetzen: 60 Mrd. Euro von der EU-Kommission, 440 Mrd. Euro von den EU-Staaten und 100 Mrd. Euro vom Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF). Die Gelder aus Europa sollen als bilaterale Kredite fließen. Widerstand kommt dem Vernehmen nach von kleinen Staaten, denen die gesamte Summe zu hoch ist. Sie würden lieber Garantien als Kredite gewähren, wie Diplomaten berichteten.
Falls der IWF 100 Mrd. Euro zusteuern würde, würden sich die Europäer noch stärker an den Währungsfonds binden als ohnehin. Das könnte als Signal wahrgenommen werden, dass die Europäer ihre schwierige Situation alleine nicht bereinigen können. Portugal und Spanien sollen in die Sparpflicht genommen werden und zusätzliche konkrete Zusagen machen, wie sie ihr Defizit bewältigen wollen. Portugal und Spanien sollen sich nach FTD-Informationen verpfichten, dieses Jahr - gemessen am Bruttoinlandsprodukt - 1,5 und nächstes 2,0 Prozent mehr zu sparen. "Die Spanier wehren sich massiv dagegen", verlautete aus diplomatischen Kreisen. Dennoch galt eine Einigung wegen des Drucks auf den Euro als sicher. Die 60 Mrd. Euro sind als Kredite der EU-Kommission gedacht, ähnlich der Zahlungsbilanzhilfen für schwächelnde Nicht-Euro-Länder wie Ungarn, Lettland und Rumänien. Auf diese neue Kreditmöglichkeit habe es bereits eine grundsätzliche Einigung gegeben. Bilaterale Kredite der Euro-Staaten von insgesamt bis zu 440 Mrd. Euro sollten in dem Fall eingesetzt werden, wenn ein oder mehrere Euro-Länder von der Pleite bedroht sind. Von der Kommission zuvor vorgeschlagene Kreditgarantien der Euro-Länder seien von Deutschland und den Niederlanden abgelehnt worden, berichtete die Nachrichtenagentur dpa. Die beiden Länder hätten sich gegen die zentrale Stellung der Brüsseler EU-Behörde bei der Rettungsaktion gewehrt. Die Kommission hätte die Kredite aufgenommen, von Euro-Staaten verbürgen lassen und dann an Krisenstaaten weitergereicht.
Damit hätte auch die sogenannte "No-Bailout-Klausel" (in etwa: "Kein-Herauskaufen") im EU-Vertrag umgangen werden sollen, die es eigentlich verbietet, dass ein Euro-Land für die Schulden eines anderen einstehen darf.
Zuvor hatten die Euro-Länder und der IWF Hilfskredite im Umfang von 110 Mrd. Euro für das von Pleite bedrohte Griechenland endgültig beschlossen im Bemühen, die Märkte zu beruhigen, was in Fernost tatsächlich gelang.

Abwehrwaffe gegen Spekulanten

Die milliardenschwere Abwehrwaffe soll den Euro gegen Spekulanten sicherer machen. Der deutsche Finanzminister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) wurde unmittelbar vor der Krisensitzung in Brüssel zur Beobachtung ins Krankenhaus gebracht.
In den Verhandlungen um einen Notfallmechanismus für klamme Euro-Länder ist nach Angaben von Diplomaten auch wieder die Gründung eines Europäischen Währungsfonds (EWF) im Gespräch. Ein solches "System von bilateralen Darlehens-Garantien", das man auch EWF nennen könne, dürfte in den Gesprächen der EU-Finanzminister eine Rolle spielen, hieß es in Diplomatenkreisen. Das Nicht-Euro-Land Großbritannien wolle sich an einem solchen Fonds zwar nicht nicht beteiligen. "Sie werden es aber auch nicht blockieren, wenn es das ist, was die Eurogruppe für die Stabilität des Euro tun will."
Die Attacken von Spekulanten auf die Einheitswährung glichen "dem Verhalten von Wolfsrudeln", meinte der schwedische Finanzminister Anders Borg zum Auftakt der Dringlichkeitssitzung am Sonntagnachmittag. "Wenn wir dieses Rudel nicht stoppen, werden sie die schwächsten Länder zerreißen."
Nach der Euro-Gruppe am Sonntag gab der IWF seinen Anteil am 110 Mrd. Euro schweren Kreditpaket für das dramatisch verschuldete Griechenland frei. Der IWF übernimmt 30 Mrd. Euro an Beistandskrediten für das südosteuropäische Land, die Euro-Länder schultern 80 Mrd. Euro. Der IWF wird Griechenland wohl bis Mittwoch eine erste Tranche der zugesagten Kredithilfen zur Verfügung stellen. In Kreisen des IWF-Vorstands hieß es, bis dahin würden dem Land 5,5 Mrd. Euro gezahlt. Die Hilfen seien im IWF-Vorstand einstimmig beschlossen worden.
US-Präsident Barack Obama und Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) erörterten am Sonntag in einem Telefonat erneut die wirtschaftliche Lage in Europa. Beide Politiker hätten die Notwendigkeit betont, dass die Staaten der EU das Vertrauen in die Märkte entschlossen stärkten, sagte ein Sprecher des Weißen Hauses. Zuletzt hatten sich Obama und Merkel am Freitag ausgetauscht.

Internationale Bemühungen

Der Rat der Europäischen Zentralbank kam nach Informationen aus EU-Kreisen zeitgleich mit den EU-Finanzministern zu Beratungen über die Lage in der Euro-Zone zusammen. Die Zentralbanker tagten per Telefonkonferenz.
Der französische Staatspräsident Nicolas Sarkozy einigte sich nach Angaben seines Büros mit Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) auf Maßnahmen zur Beilegung der europäischen Finanzkrise. In der am Sonntag veröffentlichten Erklärung des Elysée-Palastes wurden keine näheren Einzelheiten genannt. Die Vereinbarung werde noch während des am Abend andauernden Krisentreffens der EU-Finanzminister in Brüssel bekanntgegeben, hieß es. Die Finanz-Staatssekretäre der G20-Länder werden Medienberichten zufolge in der Nacht auf Montag in einer Telefonkonferenz über Entwicklungen im Zusammenhang mit der griechischen Schuldenkrise beraten. Die südkoreanische Nachrichtenagentur Yonhap meldete, die Konferenz solle um 00:00 Uhr (MESZ) beginnen und werde von Kanada und Südkorea moderiert. Weitere Einzelheiten wurden nicht genannt.

http://www.ftd.de/politik/europa/:rettungspaket-eu-bastelt-an-600-milliarden-paket-zur-euro-rettung/50112028.html

[cyberstievie]

720-Milliarden-Euro-Schutzprogramm
Wie der Euro-Rettungstopf funktioniert

Quasi über Nacht hat die Europäische Union einen gigantischen Rettungsschirm von 720 Milliarden Euro über alle möglichen Insolvenzkandidaten des Euro-Raums gespannt. Ein neuer Stabilisierungsmechanismus ist geschaffen. Wie funktioniert er? Die wichtigsten Anworten.
Von Werner Mussler und Patrick Welter
11. Mai 2010

Woraus setzt sich der Rettungsschirm zusammen?

Das Paket hat drei Komponenten. Der erste Teil, der im Falle eines Notfalls auch als Erster aktiviert würde, kommt aus EU-Mitteln, die die EU-Kommission auf dem Markt aufnimmt. Er umfasst 60 Milliarden Euro. Der zweite Teil besteht aus Garantien der Euro-Staaten über eine Gesamtsumme von bis zu 440 Milliarden Euro, die in eine dazu eigens gegründete Zweckgesellschaft eingehen sollen, die im Bedarfsfall Kapital auf dem Markt aufnehmen und an das bedürftige Land weiterreichen soll. Die Zweckgesellschaft soll drei Jahre bestehen. Der dritte Teil besteht aus einem Beitrag des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF), von dem nach der Erklärung der EU-Minister erwartet wird, dass er „mindestens halb so viel“ wie den Beitrag der EU-Zweckgesellschaft über seine üblichen Kreditlinien zur Verfügung stellt. Das wären 220 Milliarden Euro, auch wenn der IWF offiziell keine Finanzierungszusage gemacht hat. Als Gesamtsumme ergeben sich 720 Milliarden Euro.

Wie funktioniert die Zweckgesellschaft?

Einige Details müssen in den kommenden Tagen noch ausgehandelt werden. Deshalb will die Bundesregierung noch keine genaue Auskunft darüber geben, wie hoch die deutsche Belastung ausfallen wird. Als Vorbild dient aber im Prinzip das Mischmodell aus Garantien und Krediten, das Deutschland - über die Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau - für die Griechenland-Hilfen angewandt hat: Die Euro-Staaten garantieren mit unterschiedlich hohen Anteilen für Kredite, die die Zweckgesellschaft im Notfall an den Märkten aufnehmen würde. Der Zinssatz, zu dem sich die Zweckgesellschaft Kapital beschaffen kann, läge unter dem, den das Empfängerland für seine Anleihen zahlen muss.

Welches Land trägt wie viel?

Der Beitrag zu den Garantien für die Zweckgesellschaft richtet sich - analog zur Berechnung der Anteile für das Griechenland-Hilfspaket - nach dem jeweiligen Anteil der Euro-Staaten am Kapital der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB). Für Deutschland, das knapp 28 Prozent des Kapitals hält, ergibt sich danach eine Verpflichtung von knapp 123 Milliarden Euro. Es folgen Frankreich, Italien und Spanien. Der kleinste Euro-Staat Malta kommt noch auf knapp 400 Millionen Euro. Griechenland soll sich nach derzeitigem Stand nicht beteiligen. Sollte der Mechanismus zu Gunsten eines bestimmten Landes aktiviert werden, könnte es sich an der jeweiligen Auszahlung nicht beteiligen. Die Kredite aus dem 60-Milliarden-Paket der EU belasten die Mitgliedstaaten zunächst nicht. Sie würden aber indirekt - über Ausfälle im EU-Haushalt - belastet, wenn die Kredite nicht zurückgezahlt werden.

Wie funktioniert die direkte EU-Hilfe?

Die EU-Kommission nimmt diese Mittel am Kapitalmarkt auf und reicht sie weiter. Vorbild sind insoweit die Zahlungsbilanzhilfen an Nicht-Euro-Staaten, für die die EU-Behörde unverändert bis zu 50 Milliarden Euro aufnehmen kann. Die Summe von 60 Milliarden Euro für die neuen Mittel beschreibt den Rahmen, der sich im Falle eines Kreditausfalls maximal im EU-Haushalt verkraften ließe. Dafür müsste dann aber - im Falle eines Falles - der bestehende EU-Haushaltsrahmen aufgestockt werden, was auch zusätzliche Belastungen der EU-Nettozahler wie Deutschland bedeuten würde.

Welche Länder profitieren vom Rettungsschirm?

Klare Kriterien sind nicht genannt; die Vereinbarung erwähnt keine Länder explizit. Potentielle Kandidaten sind alle Länder, die überschuldet sind oder deren Risikoaufschläge auf Staatsanleihen so hoch werden, dass man dahinter spekulative Attacken vermuten muss. Zweck des Mechanismus ist explizit nicht eine schnelle Auszahlung, sondern die Abschreckung von Spekulanten. Ein Hinweis auf mögliche Kandidaten befindet sich allerdings indirekt in der Brüsseler Vereinbarung: Nur Spanien und Portugal werden zusätzliche Sparverpflichtungen abverlangt. Dem Vernehmen nach hat der Präsident der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB), Jean-Claude Trichet, diese zusätzlichen Verpflichtungen zur Bedingung für eine EZB-Beteiligung gemacht, vor allem für die EZB-Zusage, künftig Staatsanleihen aufzukaufen.

Wann fließt Geld?

Die Idee des Rettungspakets ist, ähnlich wie beim Rettungsschirm für die Banken vom Herbst 2008, dass es aufgrund seiner reinen Existenz möglichst wenig oder gar nicht gebraucht wird, also gar keine Mittel fließen müssen. Jede Entscheidung zur Auszahlung erfordert eine Vorabprüfung durch die EU-Kommission, die EZB und den IWF sowie eine Entscheidung der zuständigen Gremien - wie im Fall der Griechenland-Hilfen. Fest steht, dass die Gewährung von Krediten grundsätzlich mit harten Spar- und Reformauflagen verknüpft werden soll, wie sie EU und IWF auch mit Blick auf Griechenland angewendet haben.

Was zahlt der deutsche Steuerzahler?

Der deutsche Anteil an den Garantien für die Zweckgesellschaft von 123 Milliarden Euro wäre haushaltsrelevant. Zu einer direkten Belastung käme es erst, wenn die 60 Milliarden Euro aus dem Gemeinschaftshaushalt erschöpft wären. Danach bemisst sich die deutsche Belastung nach dem oben genannten EZB-Schlüssel; nach diesem Schlüssel würden alle Euro-Staaten beteiligt, soweit sie zahlungsfähig sind. Weitere indirekte Belastungen über den deutschen Anteil am IWF sind schwer zu berechnen.

Bekommt die EU-Kommission mehr Macht?

Ja - aber nicht so viel wie sie gerne gehabt hätte. Dadurch, dass sie eigene Mittel in dem Programm einsetzen kann, erhält sie mehr Einfluss. Außerdem bekommt sie zusammen mit dem IWF das Recht zur Aufsicht über die Sparprogramme mehrerer Staaten, die deutlich über ihre Kompetenzen im Rahmen der bisherigen EU-Defizitverfahren hinausgehen. Ihren Hauptwunsch erhält sie aber nicht erfüllt: Anders als von Kommissionsbeamten übers Wochenende gestreut und vom französischen Staatspräsidenten Nicolas Sarkozy am Samstagmorgen behauptet, ist der neue Rettungsschirm kein „Gemeinschaftsinstrument“, mit dem die EU-Kommission direkt Mittel auf den Märkten hätte aufnehmen können. Die „Gemeinschaftsfazilität“ zur Unterstützung von Nicht-Euro-Staaten, die derzeit 50 Milliarden Euro umfasst, wird nicht aufgestockt und auf die Euro-Staaten ausgedehnt. Dies wäre auch schwierig gewesen, weil Euro-Staaten allein definitionsgemäß keine Zahlungsbilanzschwierigkeiten haben können. Vor allem Deutschland hatte den Wunsch von EU-Kommissionspräsident José Manuel Barroso nach einer eigenen zusätzlichen Finanzierungsquelle abgelehnt.

Wird nun ein Europäischer Währungsfonds eingeführt?

Nein. Diese Idee von Bundesfinanzminister Wolfgang Schäuble war - im Gegensatz der auf drei Jahre begrenzten jetzigen Lösung - auf Dauer angelegt und sollte ein Gesamtpaket mit langfristig angelegten, abschreckend wirkenden Sanktionen für Sparsünder kombiniert werden. EU-Währungskommissar Olli Rehn wird aber schon an diesem Mittwoch Vorschläge für eine Reform des EU-Stabilitätspakts und einen langfristig angelegten „Krisenmechanismus“ machen.

Welche Rolle spielt die EZB?

In der Brüsseler Vereinbarung ist lediglich von einer unterstützenden Rolle der EZB die Rede. Diese hat aber - als sehr wichtigen Baustein des Rettungspakets - den künftigen Ankauf von Staatsanleihen zugesagt.

Welche Rolle spielt der IWF?

Der IWF unterstützt den neuen Europäischen Stabilisierungsmechanismus und steht bereit, sich fallweise an Hilfsprogrammen für seine europäischen Mitgliedsländer zu beteiligen. Eine finanzielle Vorabverpflichtung des Fonds ist damit nicht verbunden. Die Höhe möglicher IWF-Kredite würde im Einzelfall von den Verhandlungen zu den Anpassungsprogrammen für einzelne Euro-Länder abhängen. Nach Aussage des Geschäftsführenden Direktors des IWF, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, dürfte die Finanzhilfe des Fonds sich weitgehend in den Proportionen bewegen wie bei den jüngsten europäischen Kreditprogrammen. Nach der etwa in Griechenland genutzten Zwei-Drittel/Ein-Drittel-Regel könnte der IWF sich so insgesamt mit etwa 220 Milliarden Euro an möglichen Hilfspaketen beteiligen. Der Fonds würde dabei auf seine regulären Kreditfazilitäten zurückgreifen; direkt wird er sich an den von den Europäern neu aufgemachten Finanztöpfen nicht beteiligen. Mit einer gewissen Zufriedenheit wird im Währungsfonds registriert, dass die Europäer mögliche Auszahlungen aus ihren eigenen Finanztöpfen ausdrücklich an die Unterstützung durch den IWF knüpfen. Der Fonds soll in die europäischen Anpassungsprogramme seine Kompetenz einbringen, harte Auflagen für die wirtschaftliche Sanierung zu setzen. „Der Schlüssel für eine wirtschaftliche Gesundung Europas ist, dass die öffentlichen Finanzen auf eine nachhaltige Basis gestellt werden“, erklärte Strauss-Kahn. Damit ist vorgezeichnet, welche Bedingungen der IWF für Kredithilfen vorrangig setzen würde. Die verfügbaren Finanzmittel des IWF für Notfallkredite im regulären Rahmen belaufen sich derzeit insgesamt auf rund 362 Milliarden Euro. Ein Teil davon ist indes durch Zusagen über Kreditlinien gebunden. In den kommenden zwölf Monaten kann der IWF aber über rund 210 Milliarden Euro für neue Kredite im Rahmen von Anpassungsprogrammen verfügen.

Welche Rechtsgrundlage hat der Rettungsschirm?

Der Vertrag über die Arbeitsweise der Europäischen Union (AEUV) verbietet in Artikel 123 ausdrücklich den unmittelbaren Erwerb öffentlicher Schuldtitel durch die EZB. Diese Regelung wird nun dadurch umgangen, dass die EZB nur auf dem Sekundärmarkt aufkauft. Ein weiteres juristisches Hindernis für das Paket ist Artikel 125 AEUV, der den Euro-Staaten die Haftung für Verbindlichkeiten anderer Mitgliedstaaten verbietet (No Bail- out), erst recht für die Union als Ganzes. Die Bundesregierung argumentiert jetzt, dass gegen diese Regelung auch jetzt nicht verstoßen wird, weil es - ähnlich wie im Griechenland-Fall - auf bilateralen Garantien aufbaut. Außerdem heißt es in Berlin, mit der drohenden „systemischen Krise“ des Euro sei eine Situation erreicht, die Hilfen als „Ultima Ratio“ zulasse, sodass das Bundesverfassungsgericht zustimmen könne. Als juristische Grundlage für das Paket dient jetzt Artikel 122 Absatz 2 AEUV. Dieser erlaubt es, dass die EU einem Mitgliedstaat, der aufgrund von „außergewöhnlichen Ereignissen, die sich seiner Kontrolle entziehen, von Schwierigkeiten betroffen oder von ernsthaften Schwierigkeiten bedroht ist“, unter bestimmten Bedingungen einen „finanziellen Beistand“ gewährt. Diese Bestimmung war mit Blick auf Griechenland ausdrücklich ausgeschlossen, weil das Land für seine Überschuldung selbst verantwortlich ist. Mit Blick auf die Verschuldung weiterer Staaten wird das jetzt offenbar nicht so gesehen, weil spekulative Attacken als „nicht selbst verschuldet“ gelten.

http://www.faz.net/s/Rub3ADB8A210E754E748F42960CC7349BDF/Doc~EB9FB344E569D4398B6B9EB94FD833949~ATpl~Ecommon ~Scontent.html

[cyberstievie]

Beispielloser Rettungsschirm
750 Milliarden zum Schutz des Euro

Die EU will die Währungsunion stützen, koste es, was es wolle: 500 Milliarden Euro stellt Brüssel bereit, dazu kommen 250 Milliarden Euro vom Internationalen Währungsfonds. Die Europäische Zentralbank kündigt an, auch direkt Anleihen hoch verschuldeter Euro-Staaten zu kaufen.

10. Mai 2010

Die EU will mit einem gigantischen Schutzschirm für hochverschuldete Euro-Länder die Währungsunion vor dem Zerfall bewahren. Die Finanzminister der 27 EU-Länder beschlossen nach stundenlangen Krisengesprächen in der Nacht zum Montag in Brüssel einen Kreditrahmen von insgesamt 500 Milliarden Euro. Der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) soll mindestens noch 250 Milliarden Euro dazulegen. Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) flankiert die Vorkehrung gegen Schuldenkrisen durch den Aufkauf von Staatsanleihen und Geldmarktoperationen (Notenbanken beginnen mit dem Kauf von Anleihen (http://www.faz.net/s/Rub3ADB8A210E754E748F42960CC7349BDF/Doc~E9FAD9D275EBC400499BE6715A5575024~ATpl~Ecommon ~Scontent.html)). Die beispiellose Krisenabwehr soll nach dem gerade erst abgewendeten Kollaps Griechenlands Spekulationen auf eine Zahlungsunfähigkeit weiterer verschuldeter Euro-Staaten - darunter des Schwergewichts Spanien - stoppen.

„Das zeigt, dass wir den Euro verteidigen werden, koste es, was es wolle“, sagte Währungskommissar Olli Rehn. „Es gibt ganz klar ein systemisches Risiko und eine Bedrohung für die finanzielle Stabilität von Eurozone und EU, es handelt sich nicht nur um eine Attacke auf einzelne Länder.“

Die Einigung der EU-Finanzminister hat dem Dax am Montag einen kräftigen Schub gegeben. Auch der Druck auf den Euro ließ nach (Euro-Rettungsschirm beflügelt die Märkte (http://www.faz.net/s/Rub3ADB8A210E754E748F42960CC7349BDF/Doc~E93BB205499D146769A48CE0922CF0330~ATpl~Ecommon ~Sspezial.html)).

Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) hat die Brüsseler Entscheidungen verteidigt. „Dieses Paket dient der Stärkung und dem Schutz unserer gemeinsamen Währung“, sagte Merkel am Montag in Berlin. „Wir schützen das Geld der Menschen in Deutschland.“ Dieses Paket sei notwendig, weil es eine Attacke gegen den Euro gegeben habe. „Es ist einmalig in der Geschichte des Euro und der Europäischen Union.“ Die Ursachen der Krise müssten nun an der Wurzel angepackt werden. Alle Mitgliedsstaaten müssten ihre Haushalte in Ordnung bringen.

Konzertierte Aktion Japans, Englands und Nordamerikas

Auch internationale Notenbanken springen Europa bei. Sie kündigten die Wiedereinführung von sogenannten Swaplines an, über die die Versorgung des europäischen Bankensystems mit Fremdwährungen sichergestellt werden soll. An der konzertierten Aktion sind neben der EZB die Bank of Japan, die Federal Reserve in den Vereinigten Staaten, die Bank of England sowie die Notenbanken der Schweiz und Kanadas beteiligt. Bei Swaplines handelt es sich um Fremdwährungsgeschäfte unter den Zentralbanken, die sicherstellen sollen, dass zum Beispiel die Banken in der Euro-Zone leicht an Dollar kommen. Hier hatte es zuletzt Probleme gegeben.

Hirohide Yamaguchi, Vize-Notenbankchef der Bank of Japan, begründete die Beteiligung Japans am Bündnis der Währungshüter damit, dass die Finanzierungsschwierigkeiten in Europa den weltweiten Finanzmärkten schaden könnten. Allerdings sagte er auch: „Die aktuellen Bedingungen sind nicht vergleichbar mit der Zeit nach dem Lehman-Schock.“ Erst am Freitag hatte die japanische Zentralbank angesichts der Turbulenzen an den Finanzmärkten in Folge der Griechenland-Krise zwei Billionen Yen (17 Milliarden Euro) in den Geldmarkt gepumpt. Es war die größte derartige Notmaßnahme seit Dezember 2008, als die BoJ Finanzinstituten wie Banken und Brokerhäusern wegen der globalen Finanzkrise ebenfalls zwei Billionen Yen über den Geldmarkt bereitgestellt hatte. Eine ähnliche Geldmarkt-Operation hatte sie zuletzt Ende vorigen Jahres im Kampf gegen die Deflation unternommen.

Kredite, Garantien - und eine neue Zweckgesellschaft

Das Hilfssystem der EU ist gestützt auf vier Säulen: Bis zu 60 Milliarden Euro Kredite sollen von der EU-Kommission kommen, ähnlich der Zahlungsbilanzhilfen für schwächelnde Nicht-Euro-Länder wie Ungarn, Lettland und Rumänien. Der 60-Milliarden-Topf aus EU-Gemeinschaftsmitteln steht unmittelbar per Verordnung zur Verfügung. Sollte dieses Geld nicht ausreichen, kommen dazu bilaterale Garantien der Euro-Staaten von insgesamt bis zu 440 Milliarden Euro. Bis zu 123,2 Milliarden Euro kämen von Deutschland, würde der gleiche Verteilungsschlüssel wie zur Rettung Griechenlands angewandt. Deutschland habe stundenlang auf bilateralen Krediten beharrt und dem System der Garantien erst zugestimmt, als die Gründung einer eigenen Zweckgesellschaft beschlossen wurde.

Die genaue Ausgestaltung dieser Zweckgesellschaft („Special Purpose Vehicle“) werde noch „in den nächsten Tagen“ festgezurrt, sagte Bundesinnenminister Thomas de Maizière. Damit soll auch die sogenannte „No-Bailout-Klausel“ (in etwa: „Kein-Herauskaufen“) im EU-Vertrag umgangen werden, die es verbietet, dass ein Euro-Land für die Schulden eines anderen einstehen darf. Zusätzlich zu den 500 Milliarden Euro der Europäer kommen nochmals bis zu 250 Milliarden Euro vom IWF. Der IWF ist bereits mit 30 Milliarden Euro Krediten für den schwer angeschlagenen Schuldensünder Griechenland mit im Boot.

Die von der Kommission zuvor vorgeschlagenen Garantien der Euro-Länder für von der Kommission für das jeweilige Schuldenland aufgenommene Kredite seien von Deutschland und den Niederlande abgelehnt worden, sagten Diplomaten. Die beiden Länder hätten sich gegen die zentrale Stellung der Brüsseler EU-Behörde bei der Rettungsaktion gewehrt. Die Kommission hätte mit ihrer guten Bonität die Kredite zinsgünstig aufgenommen, von Euro-Staaten verbürgen lassen und dann an Krisenstaaten mit Aufschlag weitergereicht.

Auf dass „vielleicht Ruhe in den Karton kommt“

De Maizière verteidigte die deutsche Haltung. „Garantien gelten auf den ersten Blick als vielleicht nicht so gewichtig wie Kredite“, sagte er, „Aber Garantien aufgenommen durch die Europäische Union (...) wären der Einstieg in eine Transfer-Union geworden und das hätten wir nicht mitgemacht.“ Die hohe Summe, so fuhr er fort, „dient dazu, dass ... vielleicht Ruhe in den Karton kommt“. Deutschland hoffe, dass die Kredite nicht in Anspruch genommen werden müssten. De Maizière vertrat in Brüssel den erkrankten Bundesfinanzminister Wolfgang Schäuble, der am Abend wegen einer Medikamenten-Unverträglichkeit in ein Brüsseler Krankenhaus gebracht worden war.

Ebenfalls am Sonntag telefonierte der amerikanische Präsident Barack Obama mit Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel, die danach die zuständigen Bundesminister zu einer Sitzung im Kanzleramt zusammenrief. Nach dem rund einstündigen Treffen wollte sich keiner der Teilnehmer äußern. Beobachter werfen Deutschland seit Wochen einen Verzögerungskurs vor.

Im Trubel ging fast unter, dass das 110-Milliarden-Euro-Kreditpaket für Griechenland, von dem die Krise ausgegangen war, endgültig auf den Weg gebracht wurde. IWF und EU fassten die Beschlüsse zur Auszahlung der ersten Kredittranchen, so dass die Griechen vor ihrer nächsten Schuldenauktion am Kapitalmarkt am 19. Mai genug Rückhalt haben.

http://www.faz.net/s/Rub3ADB8A210E754E748F42960CC7349BDF/Doc~EBBB63C0A4C3541F39C77A9D53C4F8FCE~ATpl~Ecommon ~Scontent.html

http://www.faz.net/m/%7BF3A104A9-08E8-4873-8E93-16D43012C97E%7DPicture.jpg

[cyberstievie]

Rentenmarkt:
Ist es gut, wenn die EZB Staatsanleihen kauft?

Die griechische Schuldenkrise droht auch Länder wie Spanien, Portugal und Italien in die Tiefe zu ziehen. Das Handelsblatt hat führende europäische Ökonomen dazu befragt, was sie davon halten, wenn die EZB am Markt Staatsanleihen der betroffenen Länder aufkauft, um den Marktturbulenzen zu begegnen. Viele halten dies für die beste Krisenstrategie. Andere sind strikt dagegen.

[...]

Kai Carstensen, Konjunkturchef Ifo-Institut: Derzeit wäre ein Ankauf von Staatsanleihen ein ganz falsches Signal, denn er könnte das noch intakte Stabilitätsversprechen des Euro-Raums - niedrige Inflation - beschädigen. Auch könnten Zweifel an der Unabhängigkeit der EZB aufkommen, nachdem sie schon die Ratinganforderungen für Refinanzierungsgeschäfte gesenkt hat. All dies würde die Unsicherheit an den Märkten weiter erhöhen, selbst wenn ein Ankaufprogramm kurzfristig entlastend wirkte. Es wird wieder zu schnell darüber diskutiert, wie mit diskretionären Staatseingriffen unangenehme Anpassungen, sei es in den Bilanzen der Investoren, sei es in den öffentlichen Haushalten, umgangen werden könne.

[...]

Marco Annunziata, Chefvolkswirt, Unicredit: Die EZB sollte keine Staatsanleihen kaufen. [...] Das wäre eine Monetarisierung der Staatsschuld und würde die Inflationserwartungen aus der Verankerung reißen.

[...]

Horst Löchel, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management: Nein, ich meine nicht, dass die EZB griechische oder andere Staatsanleihen direkt kaufen sollte. Wir sind in Deutschland in den letzten 60 Jahren gut mit der Trennung von Staatsschulden und Geldpolitik gefahren und sollten diese Tradition auch in Europa beibehalten. Geldschöpfung durch den Staat ist die eigentliche Quelle von Inflation.

http://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anleihen/rentenmarkt-ist-es-gut-wenn-die-ezb-staatsanleihen-kauft;2577603;0

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=200&avg2=100&avg3=10&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&ind0=RSI&ind1=MACD&&currency=&&lSyms=GLD.FX1&lColors=0x000000&sSym=GLD.FX1&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=30y&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=200&avg2=1000&avgtype=simple&ind0=RSI&ind1=MACD&&currency=&&lSyms=GLD.FX1&lColors=0x000000&sSym=GLD.FX1&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

Roubini
Die Finanzkrise erreicht ihr gefährlichstes Stadium

Nach den Banken müssen die Staaten gerettet werden. Aber wer rettet die Retter, wenn sie sich finanziell verhoben haben? Die Mittel zur Bekämpfung der Krise führen uns tiefer in sie hinein. Und die einzig richtige Medizin - Sparen - ist nur schwer durchzusetzen.

von Nouriel Roubini
20.05.2010 11:25 Uhr

Man kann Finanzkrisen wie Nassim Taleb mit "schwarzen Schwänen" vergleichen und sie so als unvorhersehbare Ereignisse interpretieren, die den Lauf der Geschichte verändern. Ich habe die bisherigen Finanzkrisen eher als "weiße Schwäne" beschrieben. Und was jetzt passiert, der zweite Akt der globalen Finanzkrise, war ebenfalls vorherzusehen.

Krisen entstehen unweigerlich, wenn volkswirtschaftliche, finanzielle und politische Risiken aufgetürmt werden: Blasen auf den Kapitalmärkten, überhöhte Risikopositionen und Verschuldungsgrade, exzessive Kreditvergabe, lose Geldpolitik, laxe Finanzaufsicht, Gier und unverantwortliche Investments von Banken und anderen Finanzinstitutionen.

Die Geschichte zeigt auch, dass solche Krisen sich im Laufe der Zeit verändern. Die heutige begann bei den privaten Haushalten, Banken und Unternehmen. Das führte zu einer wachsenden, gefährlichen Staatsverschuldung, verursacht durch Konjunkturprogramme und Rettungspakete. Diese Programme und Pakete waren sicherlich notwendig, um zu verhindern, dass aus der großen Rezession eine Depression wie in den 30er-Jahren wurde. Sie waren aber auch sehr teuer. Irgendwann muss der Schuldenberg durch höhere Steuern und niedrigere Ausgaben wieder abgetragen werden, um eine neue Krise abzuwenden. Und das bremst zunächst einmal das Wachstum.

Wenn es nicht gelingt, zu mehr Einnahmen und weniger Ausgaben zu kommen, gibt es nur zwei Auswege: für Staaten, die sich in einer eigenen Währung verschulden, ist das die Inflation. Für Staaten, die keine eigene Druckerpresse anwerfen können oder sich in Fremdwährung verschulden, bleibt nur die Insolvenz.

So ist das jüngste Drama um Griechenland, Portugal, Italien und Spanien nur die zweite Stufe der weltweiten Finanzkrise. Die Sozialisierung der privaten Verluste und Konjunkturspritzen haben zu einem beängstigenden Anstieg der Defizite und der Verschuldung geführt. Die Finanzkrise ist keineswegs vorbei, sie hat vielmehr ein neues, gefährlicheres Stadium erreicht.

Immer wieder zwingt die Krise Politiker, ein langes Wochenende damit zu verbringen, ein neues Rettungspaket zu schnüren und vor Öffnung der Märkte am Montag früh anzukündigen, um eine Panik zu verhindern. In den letzten Jahren ging es in solchen Nachtsitzungen vor allem um private Firmen. Heute gibt es immer noch solche Wochenenddramen. Neulich haben die europäischen Politiker dabei ein Paket für Griechenland und andere schwache Mitglieder der Euro-Zone geschnürt. Hier zeigt sich also wieder die Reihenfolge: erst die privaten Firmen, dann die Rettung der Retter, also der Regierungen.

Das Geld für solche Zwecke fließt mehr als reichlich. Während der Asienkrise der Jahre 1997 und 1998 bekam Südkorea vom Internationalen Währungsfonds rund zehn Milliarden Dollar - das galt damals als sehr viel. Heute haben wir nach Bear Stearns (30 Milliarden Dollar), Fannie Mae und Freddie Mac (200 Milliarden), AIG (bis zu 250 Milliarden), dem US-Programm für angeschlagene Banken (700 Milliarden) die Mutter aller Rettungsversuche: Umgerechnet eine Billion Dollar machen die Europäische Union und der Internationale Währungsfonds für die schwachen Euro-Länder locker. Eine Milliarde war einmal eine große Geldsumme - heute ist eine Billion fast schon normal; oder, um den Film "Der Teufel trägt Prada" zu zitieren: Eine Billion ist heute das, was früher zehn Milliarden waren!

Regierungen, die Banken gerettet haben, müssen nun selbst gerettet werden. Aber was passiert, wenn der politische Wille zu Hilfsaktionen in Deutschland und bei anderen disziplinierten Kreditgebern - viele davon sitzen heute in Schwellenregionen - dahinschwindet? Wer rettet dann die Retter der Banken? Unser Finanzsystem sieht immer mehr aus wie ein Schneeballsystem.

Das richtige Mittel gegen den Ruin ist ja bekannt. Aber weltweit fehlen schwachen Regierungen die Kraft und der Wille, eine sparsame Politik durchzusetzen. In den USA blockieren sich die politischen Flügel gegenseitig, und in Großbritannien wird sich die neue Koalitionsregierung ebenfalls schwertun mit harten Einschnitten. In Deutschland hat Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel nach der Rettungsaktion für Griechenland ein wichtiges Bundesland bei einer Wahl verloren, und Japan hat eine schwache Regierung, die die Probleme offenbar nicht sehen will. In Griechenland selbst herrscht Aufruhr auf den Straßen, und es gibt Streiks in den Betrieben, beim Rest der PIIGS (Portugal, Irland, Italien, Spanien) wird finanzielle Disziplin zu großen politischen und sozialen Problemen führen. Daher könnten die notwendigen politischen und fiskalischen Reformen scheitern. Wir werden noch lange mit der Krise leben müssen. Die Medizin, um sie zu heilen, war teilweise Gift, das den Patienten noch zusätzlich geschwächt und ihn abhängig gemacht hat.

Der Autor ist Professor an der Stern School of Business der New York University.


http://www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/gastbeitaege/roubini-die-finanzkrise-erreicht-ihr-gefaehrlichstes-stadium;2584795

[cyberstievie]

Marktberichte, Donnerstag, 20. Mai 2010

Nervosität erfasst Australien
Euro steigt über 1,24 Dollar

Nach dem überraschenden Vorpreschen der deutschen Finanzaufsicht in Sachen Leerverkäufe herrscht am Devisenmarkt gespannte Ruhe. Der Euro baut seinen Abstand zum Vierjahrestief weiter aus. In Australien gerät unterdessen der Aussie-Dollar unter Druck.

Im frühen europäischen Handel hat der Euro kräftig angezogen. Er überwand kurzzeitig den New Yorker Vortagesschluss von 1,2428 Dollar, fiel dann aber wieder auf 1,2384 Dollar zurück und lag damit auf dem Niveau des asiatischen Geschäfts. Einen unmittelbaren Auslöser für den vorübergehenden Anstieg konnten Börsianer nicht nennen. Sie betonten allerdings, dass die Umsätze extrem dünn seien. Daher sollten die Ausschläge nicht überbewertet werden. Zuletzt notierte der Euro bei 1,2390 Dollar.

Damit lag die Gemeinschaftswährung immer noch deutlich über ihrem Vierjahrestief 1,2146 Dollar. Gesprächsthema waren weiter die Spekulationen vom Vortag, wonach Notenbanken dem Euro unter die Arme griffen. Die Analysten der Commerzbank betonten, der Euro sei trotz der Kursverluste zum Dollar nicht unterbewertet. Zentralbankinterventionen könnten nach hinten losgehen, warnten die Analysten: "Erst das Eingreifen von Notenbanken würde wirklich Spekulanten auf den Plan rufen und den Abwärtsdruck auf Euro/Dollar möglicherweise sogar verstärken."

Am Rentenmarkt stieg der Bund-Future am Morgen um 14 Ticks auf 127,61 Punkte. "Im Tagesverlauf könnten Gewinnmitnahmen einsetzen", sagte ein Börsianer. Da Anleger aber immer noch Staatsanleihen der hoch verschuldeten südeuropäischen Staaten zugunsten der als sicher geltenden Bundestitel verkauften, dürften sich die Verluste in Grenzen halten.

Stärkere Ausschläge gab es am Donnerstag auf der anderen Seite der Erdkugel. Dort setzte eine zunehmende Risikoscheu der Anleger den australischen Dollar unter massiven Verkaufsdruck. Er rutschte um bis zu 3,7 Prozent auf 75,05 Yen ab und war damit so billig wie seit Juli 2009 nicht mehr.

Börsianern zufolge befürchten Investoren eine Verschärfung der Regulierung für "Carry Trades". Darunter leiden meist die hoch verzinsten Währungen wie der australische oder der neuseeländische Dollar. Der Kiwi-Dollar gab bis zu 2,5 Prozent auf 60,93 Yen nach.

http://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/marktberichte/Euro-steigt-ueber-1-24-Dollar-article881419.html


http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&from=1116669600&to=1274349600&avg1=200&avg2=1000&avg3=10&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DJPYAUD.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DJPYAUD.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&from=1116669600&to=1274349600&avg1=200&avg2=1000&avg3=10&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DJPYNZD.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DJPYNZD.TGT&hcmask=

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&from=1116669600&to=1274349600&avg1=200&avg2=1000&avg3=10&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DEURAUD.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DEURAUD.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&from=1116669600&to=1274349600&avg1=200&avg2=1000&avg3=10&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=DEURNZD.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DEURNZD.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

Ausnahmsweise mal nicht nur Währungsentwicklungen hier im Thread, denn auch die Rohstoffpreise spielen verrückt...
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Bloomberg
Palladium Has Biggest Two-Day Drop in 12 Years; Platinum Falls
May 20, 2010, 3:10 PM EDT

By Millie Munshi and Nicholas Larkin

May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Palladium futures plunged, capping the biggest two-day slump in 12 years, on concern that demand will dwindle amid dimming prospects for the global economy. Platinum tumbled the most since December 2008.

Europe’s debt crisis and slowing growth in China may erode consumption of the metals used mostly for pollution-control devices in cars. Ford Motor Co.’s deliveries in main European markets fell 17 percent in April, the first drop in 11 months. In two days, palladium dropped 19 percent, the most since May 1998. Before this month, the price surged 36 percent in 2010.

“Prices had gotten extended way too high, and it left the metal particularly vulnerable to changes in the economic situation,” said Donald Selkin, the chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. in New York. “People are looking at the overall macro picture now and thinking things are not going to be as good as they had hoped.”

Palladium futures for June delivery fell $50.75, or 11 percent, to $408.95 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, the metal tumbled 9.3 percent on record aggregate volume of 14,684 contracts. As of 2:34 p.m., estimated volume was 11,439 contracts. The two-day price drop was the biggest since May 1998.

Platinum futures for July delivery dropped $109.90, or 6.8 percent, to $1,495.80 an ounce, the biggest drop for a most- active contract since Dec. 1, 2008. Earlier, the metal touched $1,490.30, the lowest level since Feb. 12. The price has tumbled 14 percent this month.

Toshiyuki Shiga, the chairman of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, said the European crisis has made him less optimistic about the global auto market than a month ago.

‘First Out’

On May 10, Peter Sorrentino, who helps manage $12.8 billion at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati, said palladium may fall to as low as $430 by September. The metal touched $406 today.

“People should make sure they’re the first out of the exit and not the last,” Sorrentino said.

Prices gained for 12 straight months through April. The introduction of an exchange-traded fund backed by the metal in January boosted demand, Selkin of National Securities said. An ETF for platinum was also launched in New York this year.

“There’s very high speculative interest” in the metals, said Walter de Wet, an analyst at Standard Bank Plc in London. “With risk as high as it has been, we expect to see some liquidation.”

--With assistance from Makiko Kitamura in Tokyo. Editors: Patrick McKiernan, Steve Stroth

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-20/palladium-has-biggest-two-day-drop-in-12-years-platinum-falls.html

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=10&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=PLD.FX1&lColors=0x000000&sSym=PLD.FX1&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=140&avg3=10&avgtype=simple&ind=BB&&currency=&&lSyms=PLT.FX1&lColors=0x000000&sSym=PLT.FX1&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

Schuldenkrise
EU bereitet sich auf Rettungsaktion für Spanien vor

Die Lage am spanischen Bankenmarkt spitzt sich zu. Nach Informationen der F.A.Z. sollen vor allem EU-Kommissionspräsident Barroso und EZB-Präsident Trichet für Hilfen plädieren. Eine Schuldenkrise in Spanien wäre für die EU deutlich schwieriger zu bewältigen als in Griechenland.

Von Kerstin Schwenn

13. Juni 2010 Die Länder der Europäischen Union bereiten sich darauf, Spanien mit Krediten aus der sich verschärfenden Finanz- und Schuldenkrise zu helfen. „Wir werden in der kommenden Woche in Brüssel Gespräche dazu führen“, hieß es am Sonntag in Regierungskreisen in Berlin. „Dabei werden wir uns im Rahmen des Vertragswerks und der ökonomischen Vernunft bewegen.“ Offenbar hat sich die Lage so verschärft, dass die Staaten nicht bis zum EU-Gipfel am Donnerstag warten wollen. Dem Vernehmen nach schließt sowohl die Spitze der EU-Kommission als auch die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) eine Unterstützung nicht aus.

Ein Sprecher des Wirtschaftsministeriums in Madrid hatte noch am Freitag ein Interesse der spanischen Regierung unter José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero dementiert: „Es gibt keine Rettungsaktion.“ Man habe nicht um Hilfe nachgesucht, und das werde man auch nicht tun. Ähnliche Äußerungen hatte es allerdings im Frühjahr auch in Griechenland gegeben, bevor die Athener Regierung die EU-Partner dann doch um Hilfe bat.

Die Lage könnte eskalieren

Verantwortlich für die Zuspitzung ist offenbar die Lage am spanischen Bankenmarkt. Dort rollt derzeit eine Konsolidierungswelle. Die Institute versuchen, durch Zusammenschlüsse die Folgen der Immobilienkrise in den Griff zu bekommen. Dennoch ist das Vertrauen stark gesunken, die Kreditgewährung im Interbanken-Handel stockt seit Tagen. EZB-Präsident Jean-Claude Trichet berichtete von „anhaltenden Spannungen in einigen Segmenten des Finanzmarkts“. Falls die Schwierigkeiten eskalieren, könnte Spanien als erstes Land Mittel aus dem Hilfspaket von 750 Milliarden Euro erhalten, das die Länder der Eurozone und der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) kürzlich vereinbart haben.

An diesem Montag wollen die EU-Kommission und die Statistikbehörde Eurostat über Empfehlungen für Spanien beraten. Viele Euro-Partner halten die Sparbemühungen Zapateros für ungenügend. Eine Schuldenkrise in Spanien wäre für die EU schwieriger zu bewältigen als die Griechenlands. Griechenland trägt nur 2,5 Prozent zum europäischen Bruttoinlandsprodukt bei, Spanien fast zwölf Prozent.


http://www.faz.net/s/Rub3ADB8A210E754E748F42960CC7349BDF/Doc~E6FC6B7DC4B044BA28F6D173CE2759394~ATpl~Ecommon ~Scontent.html


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[cyberstievie]

Further Reform the RMB Exchange Rate Regime and Enhance the RMB Exchange Rate Flexibility

In view of the recent economic situation and financial market developments at home and abroad, and the balance of payments (BOP) situation in China, the People´s Bank of China has decided to proceed further with reform of the RMB exchange rate regime and to enhance the RMB exchange rate flexibility.

Starting from July 21, 2005, China has moved into a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. Since then, the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime has been making steady progress, producing the anticipated results and playing a positive role.

When the current round of international financial crisis was at its worst, the exchange rate of a number of sovereign currencies to the U.S. dollar depreciated by varying margins. The stability of the RMB exchange rate has played an important role in mitigating the crisis´ impact, contributing significantly to Asian and global recovery, and demonstrating China´s efforts in promoting global rebalancing.

The global economy is gradually recovering. The recovery and upturn of the Chinese economy has become more solid with the enhanced economic stability. It is desirable to proceed further with reform of the RMB exchange rate regime and increase the RMB exchange rate flexibility.

In further proceeding with reform of the RMB exchange rate regime, continued emphasis would be placed to reflecting market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. The exchange rate floating bands will remain the same as previously announced in the inter-bank foreign exchange market.

China´s external trade is steadily becoming more balanced. The ratio of current account surplus to GDP, after a notable reduction in 2009, has been declining since the beginning of 2010. With the BOP account moving closer to equilibrium, the basis for large-scale appreciation of the RMB exchange rate does not exist. The People´s Bank of China will further enable market to play a fundamental role in resource allocation, promote a more balanced BOP account, maintain the RMB exchange rate basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level, and achieve the macroeconomic and financial stability in China.

Submit Date:2010-6-19 19:00:00

http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english//detail.asp?col=6400&ID=1488

[cyberstievie]

20. Juni 2010, NZZ am Sonntag
Peking gibt Bindung an Dollar auf
China lenkt in Streit mit den USA ein
Sebastian Bräuer

Eine Woche vor dem G-20-Gipfel hat China in einem seit Monaten schwelenden Streit mit den USA eingelenkt. Der Wechselkurs des Yuan solle flexibler werden, teilte die chinesische Zentralbank am Samstag auf ihrer Website mit. Sie begründete ihre Entscheidung mit der «zunehmenden wirtschaftlichen Stabilität» des Landes.

China hatte den Yuan im Juli 2008 an den Dollar gekoppelt und auf diese Weise fast zwei Jahre lang eine Aufwertung verhindert. Das brachte chinesischen Unternehmen beim Export enorme Vorteile. Amerikanische Politiker hatten die Währungspolitik heftig kritisiert und China vorgeworfen, sich mit der künstlich niedrig gehaltenen Währung unfaire Handelsvorteile zu verschaffen. Der teilweise scharfe Tonfall hatte in Peking Entrüstung ausgelöst und zunächst seine gewünschte Wirkung verfehlt.

Nach dem jetzigen Entgegenkommen herrscht in Washington Erleichterung, obwohl die Zentralbank keinen Zeitpunkt für die Aufgabe der Dollar-Kopplung genannt hat. US-Finanzminister Timothy Geithner erklärte, eine entschlossene Umsetzung der angekündigten Politik werde einen «positiven Beitrag zu einem starken und ausgewogenen Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft leisten». Ökonomen hatten den Schritt erwartet, weil China an einer gewissen Aufwertung auch ein eigenes Interesse hat: Bei einer zu schwachen Währung könnte die Inflation ausser Kontrolle geraten. Der Zeitpunkt der Bekanntgabe vor dem mit Spannung erwarteten G-20-Gipfel in Toronto dürfte von Peking mit Bedacht gewählt worden sein, um dort eigene Forderungen besser durchsetzen zu können.

http://www.nzz.ch/nachrichten/international/peking_gibt_bindung_an_dollar_auf_1.6166810.html

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=5y&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=1400&avg3=&avgtype=simple&ind=&ind0=&ind1=&&currency=&&lSyms=DCNYEUR.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DCNYEUR.TGT&hcmask=http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=5y&type=candle&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=280&avg2=1400&avg3=&avgtype=simple&ind=&ind0=&ind1=&&currency=&&lSyms=DCNYUSD.TGT&lColors=0x000000&sSym=DCNYUSD.TGT&hcmask=

[cyberstievie]

JULY 16, 2010, 3:12 P.M. ET.
PRECIOUS METALS: Gold Falls On Weak Sentiment, Strong Euro

By Matt Day Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Gold futures slid to eight-week lows Friday as strength in the euro and weak economic sentiment reduced the demand for the metal as an alternative asset.

The most actively traded contract, for August delivery, settled down $20.10, or 1.7%, at $1,188.20 an ounce, the lowest settlement price since May 21.

"We had a dose of heavy selling related to the rather uninspiring economic news," said Jim Steel, senior vice president and metals analyst with HSBC. Steel said U.S. government debt was investors' asset of the choice Friday amid falling equities and commodities. Markets were shaken by a weak consumer sentiment report and discouraging corporate earnings that capped a week of disappointing economic data.

Analysts pointed to a number of reasons to sell gold Friday, and one of the most influential reasons to buy continued to be absent. Refuge buying lifted prices to record highs in May and June as euro zone sovereign debt worries and signs of a slowdown in global growth sent traders piling into gold. Gold futures tended to rise on days of declines in equities or growth-sensitive commodities, as some feel the metal outperforms those assets during tough economic times.

But gold has stepped out of the pattern, falling along with equities during recent pullbacks.

"Before, gold was supported as a flight-to-quality asset because of fears from Europe," said Adam Klopfenstein, senior market strategist with Chicago-based Lind-Waldock, a division of MF Global. But with European debt now less of a concern, gold has lost some of its luster, he said.

Traders on Friday continued to liquidate gold holdings bought during the darker days of Europe's sovereign debt crisis. Evidence that Europe is successfully managing its fiscal situation sent the common currency to two-month highs against the dollar Friday, limiting demand for the metal as a hedge against weakness in the euro. Some investors buy gold to protect against volatility in currencies also.

Nymex October platinum settled down $21.60, or 1.4%, at $1,512.10 an ounce. September palladium fell $18.60, or 4%, to $448.60 an ounce.

Comex September silver settled down 57.4 cents, or 3.1%, at $17.788 an ounce.

By Matt Day, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-4986; matthew.day2@dowjones.com

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100716-710358.html


http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?WIDTH=417&HEIGHT=443&TYPE=candle&TIME_SPAN=6M&TO=1279314320&AXIS_SCALE=lin&DATA_SCALE=abs&LNOTATIONS=1326189&LCOLORS=000000&IND=BB&AVG1=200&AVG2=100&AVG3=10&AVGTYPE=simple&WITH_EARNINGS=1&SHOWHL=1http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?WIDTH=417&HEIGHT=443&TYPE=candle&TIME_SPAN=SE&TO=1279314636&AXIS_SCALE=lin&DATA_SCALE=abs&LNOTATIONS=1326189&LCOLORS=000000&AVG1=200&AVG2=1000&AVGTYPE=simple&WITH_EARNINGS=1&SHOWHL=1

[cyberstievie]

16.07.2010 , aktualisiert 16.07.2010 17:11 Uhr
Devisenmarkt
Euro überspringt kurzzeitig 1,30-Dollar-Marke

Der Euro hat sich am Freitag nach dem kräftigen Schub am Vortag deutlich oberhalb der Marke von 1,29 Dollar eingependelt. Zwischenzeitlich war die Gemeinschaftswährung sogar 1,30 Dollar wert. Aktuelle Konjunkturdaten schicken den Greenback derweil auf neue Tiefststände.

HB FRANKFURT. Der Euro hat sich am Freitag auf ein neues Zwei-Monats-Hoch vorgearbeitet und dabei sogar über die Marke von 1,30 US-Dollar gesprungen. In der abgelaufenen Woche hat die Gemeinschaftswährung damit um mehr als vier US-Cent zugelegt. "Das ist schon ein ordentlicher Lauf," sagte ein Händler. Experten sehen den Grund darin, dass die US-Wirtschaft an Schwung verliert. "Der Fokus verlagert sich von den Schuldenproblemen in Europa auf die Abschwächung der konjunkturellen Erholung in den USA," erklärte ein Analyst. Der von Anlegern stark beachtete Index zum Verbrauchervertrauen der Universität Michigan brach unerwartet stark ein und nährt laut Helaba-Analystin Viola Storck damit Einschätzungen, die USA könnten in eine Rezession zurückfallen. Im Tagesverlauf verlor die US-Währung nicht nur zum Euro, sondern rutschte mit 83,43 Dollar auch zum Yen auf ein Elf-Monats-Tief.

Zusätzlich Schub erhielt der Euro von der Aussicht auf ein glimpfliches Abschneiden der europäischen Banken beim Stresstest. "Das nimmt natürlich noch einmal ordentlich Unruhe aus dem Markt und stärkt das Vertrauen in die Euro-Zone", sagte ein Händler. Nach Einschätzung von Euro-Ländern, IWF und EZB dürften die Banken den Stresstest bestehen. "Ich erwarte keine großen Katastrophen", sagte der Vorsitzende der Eurogruppe, Jean-Claude Juncker, der Wiener Tageszeitung "Kurier". Ähnlich äußerte sich der Chef des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF), Dominique Strauss-Kahn. "Wir werden sehen, dass alle großen europäischen Banken hinreichend stabil sind, um jedes Erdbeben zu überstehen", sagte er im französischen Fernsehen.

Der europäische Bankenregulierer CEBS nimmt insgesamt 91 Geldhäuser unter die Lupe. Die Institute müssen nach den negativen Erfahrungen aus der Finanzkrise testen, ob und wie ihre Bilanzen verschiedenen Extremszenarien widerstehen oder ob sie frisches Kapital brauchen. Die Ergebnisse der Stresstests sollen EU-Diplomatenkreisen zufolge am kommenden Freitag von jeder Bank einzeln veröffentlicht werden.

Ein guter Ausgang der Stresstests könnte die Anleger laut Analysten in ihrer positiven Stimmung für den Euro bestärken. Im Laufe der Woche hatten bereits geglückte Auktionen von griechischen, portugiesischen und spanischen Anleihen für Erleichterung an den Märkten gesorgt. Analysten werteten die Versteigerungen als Indiz dafür, dass sich die Finanzierungssituation der von Haushaltsproblemen geplagten südeuropäischen Länder etwas entspannt hat.

Am Rentenmarkt drehte der Bund-Future nach Veröffentlichung der US-Daten ins Plus und lag 32 Ticks höher bei 129,12 Zählern. Die zehnjährige Bundesanleihe rentierte mit 2,617 Prozent nach 2,653 Prozent im späten Donnerstagsgeschäft.


http://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/devisen/devisenmarkt-euro-ueberspringt-kurzzeitig-1-30-dollar-marke;2619419

[cyberstievie]

Forex - The Week Ahead
17 Jul, 2010 @ 05:23 am BST | By Brian Dolan

What to look for in the week ahead

The Week Ahead updated July 16, 2010

• Risk rally stalls, more downside likely

• EU bank stress test are results keenly awaited

• UK Inflation debate may be fuelled

• Bank of Canada Rate hike expected

• Key data and events to watch next week


Risk rally stalls, more downside likely

Risk assets (stocks, commodities, JPY-crosses) started out the past week on solid gains, but ultimately failed to overcome key resistance levels. In stocks, the fact that 20 out of 23 US earnings reports beat expectations and shares could not advance should be alarming. In reality, though, it should also have been expected--as the outlook for the US recovery continued to slide, the future outlook for stocks was undermined (and earnings are mostly backward looking indicators anyway). The market is still in the process of adjusting to a more sluggish 2H 2010, with US assets bearing the brunt at the moment, but we also think there is more to go in re-pricing for a slower global recovery.

In terms of price levels, the S&P 500 failed below the key 1100 psychological level and the bottom of the Daily Ichimoku Cloud around 1095, keeping the downside focus intact. A bearish engulfing line on the daily S&P candlesticks also highlights downside risk ahead. WTI crude oil prices never even managed to test the recent highs just below the $80/bbl area, and finished down on the week. EUR/USD topped out at the 61.8% retracement of the April-June decline, which came in at the psychologically significant 1.3000 level. The USD index extended losses below the daily cloud, but may have found a base above the key 82.00 level, just above the weekly cloud top at 81.90. AUD/JPY, the closest correlated FX pair to stocks, was rejected from the daily cloud up in the 77.30/78.30 area, mirroring the same S&P failure. Lastly, the commodity currencies have shown renewed signs of weakness against the USD, and they are frequently a leading indicator for broader USD-based moves, suggesting USD weakness may be set to reverse.

Over the course of the past week, several key correlations broke down in the short run, but other more meaningful correlations persisted. The major anomalies were in outsized EUR gains, followed closely by GBP, and extreme USD weakness. We look at EUR and GBP strength as mainly the result of another wave of short-covering, similar to what occurred in the middle of May. In this respect, we would note the outsized gains in EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD, and GBP/CAD. If it were a case of pure USD weakness, those crosses would not have seen such gains, reinforcing our view that this was a position-driven adjustment. Anecdotally, the break above the 1.2750/2800 area was heavily stop loss driven. Also, according to recent correlations, a weaker USD should have boosted stocks, oil and gold, but clearly that didn't happen either.

Taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture, US weakness undermines the prospects for the global recovery overall. From that view, many of the market moves in the past week make more sense: oil and stocks lower on slowing global outlooks; JPY-crosses lower on heightened risk aversion over the deteriorating outlook; and JPY and CHF strength on safe haven flows. We think the bulk of EUR and GBP short-covering has likely occurred and we are leery of chasing those currencies higher. Anticipating that increased risk aversion may eventually lead to the USD rebounding on safe haven demand, we would prefer to be sellers on remaining strength in EUR/USD between 1.3000-1.3150 and in GBP/USD between 1.5400/5530. The likely more reliable way to trade expected further risk pullbacks would be to sell JPY-crosses, especially AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY and NZD/JPY on remaining strength.

EU bank stress test results are keenly awaited

The first results of the EU bank stress tests are due on July 23. Credit analysts have been busy drawing up lists of which banks are likely to have failed; if the tests are to be perceived as credible then failures are considered to be inevitable. In contrast, the tone of many European officials has been confident. The Deputy Spanish Finance Minister Campa has said that Spain "can only win" from the publication of the tests, Bank of Italy Governor Draghi has stated that the stress tests will demonstrate that the capitalization of Italian banks is well above minimum levels and Bank of Ireland Governor Honohan has stated that Irish banks have already been through more severe tests. The IMF's Strauss-Kahn has concluded that there will be some small institutions that will have to be refinanced. The official rhetoric along with a decent result to the Spanish bond auction and Greek bill sale this week has supported the EUR. Clearly the EUR may come under pressure if the stress tests bring many casualties. It could also be sold if the stress tests produce too few failures, as the tests will be seen as providing insufficient transparency to the interbank market. There could be a thin line where the results appear to be relatively agreeable and the EUR can derive support. However, having reached EUR/USD 1.300 already, upside potential for the EUR could be running dry.

UK Inflation debate may be fuelled

The debate on whether inflation pressures are building in the UK intensified a month ago when it was revealed that MPC member Sentance had voted for a rate hike at the June policy meeting. Since then Sentance has maintained his hawkish view although the CPI release has shown a fall in the headline rate and labour data has brought a moderation in the growth rate of earnings. The publication of the FOMC minutes this week re-opened the possibility that the Fed may ease policy again before it hikes. While this prospect cannot yet be dismissed in the UK, market expectations are favoring a policy tightening in the UK ahead of the US and this possibility has allowed for a better tone in cable in recent sessions. Sterling could find additional support on the back of the Q2 advance GDP report in the week ahead, which is expected to show relatively good growth. The impact, however, is likely to be short-lived given prevailing concerns that the UK growth rate will stutter in H2 on the back of the government's austerity measures. The old range high of cable at USD.15525 is likely to offer decent resistance, a break below the USD1.5230 level may suggest additional losses are in store.

Bank of Canada Rate hike expected

On Tuesday July 20, the Bank of Canada meets to decide on interest rates. We agree with the market consensus for a second consecutive rate hike of 25bps to 0.75% as recent economic data out of Canada supports policy tightening. A look at the jobs report underscores this as 93.2k jobs were added in June, more than 4 times analysts' expectations. To put this in perspective, a proportionate number in the U.S. (whose economy is about 10 times larger) would be the creation of roughly 930,000 jobs. That is an impressive number and keep in mind that higher employment propels the economy forward. There has been some discussion that the BOC may tighten more aggressively, however we do not agree with this view. As inflation remains subdued there is no apparent need for more aggressive tightening. Year over year CPI is currently 1.4% which is below the 2% target inflation rate and the bank recently projected core inflation at or below 2% through 2012. In their forward looking guidance, policy makers are likely to take a cautious tone given the concerns over the Euro zone and slow down in global growth highlighted by a softening demand in commodities. More detailed thinking can be expected in Thursday's Monetary Policy Report.

Key data and events to watch next week

The calendar in the US is modestly light in the week ahead. Housing numbers kick off the week with the July NAHB Housing Market Index and continues into Tuesday with June Housing Starts and Building Permits. The data slate for Thursday sees weekly Jobless Claims, June Existing Home Sales, and June Leading Indicators. Fed Chairman Bernanke will deliver the semi-annual monetary policy out look to the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday.

Eurozone data is relatively light but significant with a heavy emphasis on the aggregate EZ results of the bank stress tests on Friday. May Euro-Zone Current Account data is scheduled for Monday as is May Construction Output. No further data is scheduled until Thursday when PMI Composite, Services, and Manufacturing Output Indexes are to be released. Thursday wraps up eurozone data releases for the week with May Industrial New Orders and Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence. In Germany, Tuesday sees June Producer Prices with July PMI Manufacturing and PMI Services surveys to follow on Thursday. Friday closes out the data week with the July IFO Business Climate Index.

A moderate week of data lies ahead in the UK with June Public Sector Net Borrowing, June Mortgage Approvals, and the July CBI Optimism Index on Tuesday. Wednesday will have the Bank of England Minutes followed by June Retail Sales figures on Thursday. Friday wraps up the UK data session with the advance estimate for Q2 GDP.

Data out of Tokyo is light with May Leading and Coincident Indexes to be released on Tuesday. There is significant event risk though as BOJ intervention cannot be completely dismissed with USDJPY trading at current levels.

Canada begins a significant week of data with the Bank of Canada Rate announcement on Tuesday. Expectations are for an increase of +0.25% to 0.75%. Up next are May Wholesale Sales and May Retail Sales due out on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday wraps up the week with June CPI and Bank of Canada Core CPI set to be released.

The calendar down under begins with the release of the RBA minutes from the July meeting on Monday and continues with the Q2 NAB Business Confidence survey on Wednesday. Thursday wraps up the week with Q2 Import and Export Price Indexes.

http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/20100717/forex-week-ahead.htm

[cyberstievie]

Zitat aus dem akt. Trading-Thread... :roll:
Fed: Vorläufiger Ausstieg aus der Exit-Strategie

von externer Redakteur, Mittwoch 11.08.2010, 09:57 Uhr

1. Die Fed hat Änderungen am Management ihres Wertpapierportfolios beschlossen. Sie wird zukünftig Rückflüsse aus Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) und anderen Agency-Anleihen am Treasury-Markt reinvestieren und so das gesamte Volumen ihrer Wertpapierbestände konstant halten. Es wird also im Verlauf der Zeit zu einer Umschichtung innerhalb der Fed-Bilanz von hypothekenbasierten Wertpapieren zu US-Treasuries kommen. Kurz nach dem Statement der Fed gab die Federal Reserve Bank of New York, die die Wertpapiertransaktionen der Fed ausführt, bekannt, hauptsächlich nominale Staatsanleihen mit zwei- bis zehnjähriger Laufzeit kaufen zu wollen. Das zu erwartende Volumen dieser Staatsanleihekäufe lässt sich nur grob abschätzen, da insbesondere bei MBS das zeitliche Muster der Rückzahlungen nicht exakt im Voraus bekannt ist. Schätzungen besagen aber, dass der Fed bis Ende nächsten Jahres gut 200 Mrd. US-Dollar aus ihren hypothekenbasierten Wertpapieren zufließen werden. Durch die Wiederanlage in relativ lang laufende US-Treasuries behält die Fed ihre Unterstützung insbesondere für die Wohnimmobilienmärkte weitgehend aufrecht, selbst wenn sie ihre Bestände an hypothekenbasierten Wertpapieren zurückfährt.

2. Hintergrund für diese Entscheidung der Fed ist die zuletzt enttäuschende wirtschaftliche Entwicklung. So betont das FOMC, dass sich das Tempo der konjunkturellen Erholung in den vergangenen Monaten verlangsamt habe. Auch seine Erwartungen für die nähere Zukunft hat es nach unten angepasst und spricht nun nicht mehr von einer „moderaten“, sondern nur noch einer „bescheidenen“ wirtschaftlichen Erholung.

3. Im Vorfeld dieses Meetings wurde ein solcher Schritt von der Fed zwar nicht eindeutig signalisiert. Dennoch gab es entsprechende Spekulationen in den Medien. Eines der wichtigsten Argumente dafür, dass die Fed genau diese Maßnahme wählen würde, bestand darin, dass sie den bestmöglichen Kompromiss zwischen rivalisierenden Lagern innerhalb des FOMC darstellen würde. So kann man die Auffassung vertreten, dass die Fed nicht wirklich zusätzliche monetäre Stimuli in Gang setzt, sondern lediglich einer schleichenden Straffung ihrer Geldpolitik entgegenwirkt, die andernfalls in den kommenden Monaten eingetreten wäre. Bisher war es gängige Praxis der Fed, die Rückflüsse aus hypothekenbasierten Wertpapieren nicht wieder anzulegen, sodass die entsprechenden Bestände im Zeitablauf abschmelzen. Insofern beinhaltete das Management ihres Wertpapierportfolios eine „eingebaute Exit-Strategie“, mit der frühere quantitative Maßnahmen allmählich wieder rückgängig gemacht werden. Angesichts eines verschlechterten wirtschaftlichen Ausblicks schaltet die Fed diese automatische Exit-Strategie nun vorerst ab.

4. Aber auch dann, wenn die Fed ihre Geldpolitik mit dieser Maßnahme nicht wirklich gelockert hat, stellt sie doch ein wichtiges Signal dar. Offensichtlich geht es der Fed nicht mehr in erster Linie darum, einen langfristig unvermeidlichen Ausstieg aus ihrer außergewöhnlich expansiven Geldpolitik vorzubereiten. Vielmehr ist ihr Hauptaugenmerk nun wieder darauf gerichtet sicherzustellen, dass ihre Geldpolitik ausreichend expansiv ist. Insofern stellt sich die Frage, unter welchen Umständen die Fed geneigt sein könnte, echte zusätzliche Stimulusmaßnahmen zu ergreifen. Auffallend ist in diesem Zusammenhang, dass das Statement immer noch von einer wirtschaftlichen Erholung spricht, auch wenn diese vorerst bescheiden ausfallen dürfte, und dass weder konjunkturelle Abwärtsrisiken noch Deflationsrisiken explizit erwähnt werden. Sollte auch nur eine dieser drei zentralen Einschätzungen ernsthaft in Frage gestellt werden, wäre es durchaus plausibel, dass die Fed nicht nur einen marginalen, sondern einen vollständigen Kurswechsel vornimmt und eine zweite Runde quantitativer Maßnahmen einleitet.

Quelle: DekaBank

Die DekaBank ist im Jahr 1999 aus der Fusion von Deutsche Girozentrale - Deutsche Kommunalbank- und DekaBank GmbH hervorgegangen. Die Gesellschaft ist als Zentralinstitut der deutschen Sparkassenorganisation im Investmentfondsgeschäft aktiv. Mit einem Fondsvolumen von mehr als 135 Mrd. Euro und über fünf Millionen betreuten Depots gehört die DekaBank zu den größten Finanzdienstleistern Deutschlands. Im Publikumsfondsgeschäft hält der DekaBank-Konzern einen Marktanteil von etwa 20 Prozent.

[cyberstievie]

Fed, worried about recovery, will buy US debt
The Fed takes a small step to buy government debt, signaling worry about the recovery
Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer, On Tuesday August 10, 2010, 5:40 pm EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) -- As recently as two months ago, the Federal Reserve sounded optimistic about the economic recovery. Now the central bank is clearly more worried, and economists say there's not much more it can do to help.

The Fed said Tuesday that it would spend a relatively small amount of money -- about $10 billion a month, economists estimate -- buying government debt. The move is designed to drive interest rates on mortgages and corporate borrowing at least a little lower and help the economy grow faster.

In a statement after a one-day meeting, the Fed said the pace of the recovery "has slowed in recent months." After its last meeting in late June, the Fed was rosier, saying that the recovery was "proceeding" and the job market actually improving.

The decision to buy government debt, using proceeds from Fed investments in mortgage bonds, was a shift from earlier this year, when the Fed was laying out plans to roll back some of the measures it took during the financial crisis.

At that time, the Fed was also preparing a strategy to begin raising interest rates again, a step taken to keep a growing economy from overheating. Now, though, the Fed has decided to keep its benchmark interest rate near zero.

"I don't think they are going to raise interest rates until it is very clear that unemployment is moving definitively lower and that doesn't look likely until late 2011," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

Economists pointed out that buying $10 billion of government debt in a $14 trillion economy is a relatively small move, and they said they did not expect it to have a dramatic impact.

"The Fed talked loudly but carried a small stick," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors.

He said that while the financial system has the money to lend, banks are unwilling or unable to find suitable loans to make. Until they do, he said, "the recovery will be softer than anyone hoped for and there may be little the Fed can do about it."

With interest rates so low, Congress, economists note, has more power than the Fed to stimulate the economy. But with midterm elections nearing, Congress is divided on whether the best move is short-term government spending, tax cuts or some combination.

On Tuesday, the House, called back from its summer break for a one-day session, pushed through a $26 billion bill to protect 300,000 teachers, police and other workers from layoffs this year. President Barack Obama signed it almost immediately.

The Fed action also came on a day when new figures showed worker productivity in the U.S. dropped this spring for the first time in more than a year -- a sign that companies that want to grow may need to hire more people.

Investors reacted positively to the Fed statement. Stocks were down sharply before the announcement but made up ground after it was announced at mid-afternoon. The Dow Jones industrial average finished down about 55 points.

Treasury prices rose slightly because the Fed plan would reduce the amount of government debt on the market for others to buy.

The Fed said it would buy two-year and 10-year Treasurys by using the proceeds from debt and mortgage-backed securities it bought from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It said that it would buy additional government debt as its existing Treasury bonds mature.

The effect is that the Fed will keep its $2.3 trillion balance sheet steady -- rather than rolling it back, as it had hoped to do as the economy improved -- while shifting its holdings out of mortgage securities and into more government debt.

"The news is positive but not meaningful," said John Merrill, chief investment officer of Tanglewood Wealth Management in Houston. "The money is a pittance."

The central bank said it expects to start buying the government debt Aug. 17 and planned to publish details Wednesday.

From March 2009 to this March, the Fed bought up $1.25 trillion in mortgage securities and $175 billion in debt from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The goal of these purchases was to drive down mortgage rates and bolster the crippled housing market. The Fed also bought $300 billion of government debt between March and October 2009.

The Fed's balance sheet has stayed at roughly $2.3 trillion since March.

Economists are skeptical that cheaper credit or even more government aid will get Americans shopping more and businesses to hire. They also say some jobs in construction and other housing-related fields, and in manufacturing, will never return to pre-recession levels -- a shift in the basic structure of the economy.

High unemployment, lackluster income growth, sagging home values and tight credit are all restraining the pace at which Americans are spending, usually a major source of powering the economy.

AP Business Writers Martin Crutsinger in Washington, David Pitt in Des Moines, and Bernard Condon in New York contributed to this report.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/More-worried-about-recovery-apf-2353655020.html?x=0

[cyberstievie]

AUGUST 31, 2010, 4:36 P.M. ET
Harrisburg To Miss $3.29M Municipal-Bond Payment

By Romy Varghese Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES PHILADELPHIA (Dow Jones)--Harrisburg, Pa., which is already struggling with a debt load related to an incinerator project, will skip a $3.29 million payment on its general-obligation debt, the second-largest such default this year.

"Unfortunately, the City's current financial situation precludes us from making any transfer to fund for these debt service payments at this time," the city's interim chief of staff and business administrator, Robert Kroboth, wrote in a letter dated Aug. 30 to the paying agent, Bank of New York Mellon.

Some bearish investors have been bracing for a wave of municipal defaults this year, which has yet to occur. But Harrisburg's actions could be interpreted as an omen, which could weaken municipal bond prices, particularly for Pennsylvania municipalities, said Matt Fabian, managing director at Municipal Market Advisors in Westport, Conn.

"It could point to other cities in Pennsylvania and elsewhere running short of payments on their general obligation bonds," Fabian said. Governor Ed Rendell has sent officials to advise the city and discouraged consideration of a municipal bankruptcy, but the state has not offered any direct cash aid to its capital.

Still, Fabian expects the impact to be modest on the municipal bond market generally, saying low supply of new tax-free municipal bonds and high demand from investors should support munis.

So far, just $886 million of general obligation bonds in a $2.8 trillion municipal bond market this year have seen credit impairments, such as dipping into reserve funds or tapping bond insurance. Bond holders didn't get paid on $32 million of that total, Fabian said.

Indeed, the $3.29 million payment on Harrisburg's general obligation refunding bonds series D and F of 1997, which is due Sept. 15, is insured by Ambac Assurance. Ambac officials didn't return calls for comment.

The capital city's warning that it will miss a payment on its own debt is a signal that its financial problems are growing beyond a failed incinerator project that led some city officials earlier this year to raise the idea of filing for a rare municipal bankruptcy.

The city hasn't formally pursued that option, but Harrisburg officials also haven't budgeted $68 million in debt payments tied to the $288 million incinerator project. They did include payments for the city's debt this year.

The incinerator is owned by a municipal entity, the Harrisburg Authority, that is separate from the city, but the city is the first guarantor of the debt. This year's payments have been covered by debt reserves; Dauphin County, which is the guarantor behind the city on almost half of the debt; and bond insurer Assured Guaranty Municipal, a unit of Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) that has guaranteed $196 million of the debt.

But the economy has taken a toll on the city's bottom line as well. "It's not just the Harrisburg Authority," said Dan Miller, the elected city controller. "We're in trouble with our debt."

In a report as of June 30, Harrisburg officials projected a $4.3 million general fund deficit at the end of the year. By missing a payment on its own debt rather than bonds tied to the incinerator, the city has ratcheted up investors' anxiety.

"It's a bad signal," said Alan Schankel, managing director at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia, adding that it raises the concern that some distressed issuers may be more likely to skip bond payments guaranteed by insurance companies.

"That's a can of worms," Schankel said. "Once that starts, it gets easier to default on something else."

Mayor Linda Thompson recently picked a firm, Scott Balice Advisers, to help the city repair its finances. But its contract has yet to be finalized, and the team isn't being paid as it does "outreach," said her spokesman, Chuck Ardo.

"The city is working feverishly to address the issue, and hopefully it will find a way to meet that challenge," Ardo said about the city's fiscal situation.

Aside from the $3.29 million payment, the city owes an additional $732,000 in debt service before the end of the year. "It's too soon to make any predictions" if that payment will be made, said Ardo, who didn't have details on that issue.

Little trade activity was seen in Harrisburg bonds, which is typical of debt largely held by retail investors. Muni market activity overall was thin Tuesday.

"We are in communication with the city as they work through this situation," a Bank of New York Mellon spokesman said.

The biggest general obligation bond default this year was Jefferson County, Ala.'s, $227 million in warrants, which carry bond insurance, Fabian said.

-By Romy Varghese, Dow Jones Newswires; 215-656-8263; romy.varghese@dowjones.com


http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100831-712777.html

[cyberstievie]

Pennsylvania sends Harrisburg help to avoid default
Sun, Sep 12 2010

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The state of Pennsylvania has stepped in to help its capital city, which in recent days came perilously close to defaulting on its debt, said Pennsylvania Governor Edward Rendell on Sunday.

"This is not a bailout," Rendell told reporters about the grants and loans the state is sending Harrisburg. "This money is due the city of Harrisburg. We're just front-loading it and expediting it."

Rendell said he met with Harrisburg Mayor Linda Thompson on Thursday evening about the city's bond payment of $3.29 million due September 15.

Unable to make the payment, Harrisburg turned to its bond insurer for the funds. Rendell was concerned the insurance company might then in turn sue the city to recoup the money.

The state will expedite fire protection funds of nearly $1 million to the city. It will also advance $2.6 million from a municipal pension assistance fund.

Rendell said Pennsylvania would provide the city with assistance grants and loans totaling $850,000 to hire an outside adviser to sort out the financing surrounding the city's trash burner.

Harrisburg is the primary guarantor of $288 million in debt taken on by the incinerator. The waste-to-energy facility has undergone expensive retrofits but still does not generate enough revenue to meet its obligations.

In recent days Harrisburg has had to take increasingly dramatic steps, including spending cuts and fee increases, to close a $4.5 million fund deficit.

Rendell, a former mayor of Philadelphia, warned against the council and mayor squabbling over ways to fix the problem, and encouraged them to "decide your own destiny."

"If the city goes into bankruptcy, the bankruptcy judge will decide," he said.

(Reporting by Lisa Lambert; editing by Gunna Dickson)


http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68B1R120100912

[pelzig]

Japanische Intervention am Devisenmarkt – Sondermeldung
Es hat Jahre gedauert, nun hat Japan wieder am Devisenmarkt interveniert. Der japanische Finanzminister begründet diesen Schritt mit der schwierigen Wirtschaftslage des Landes. Der starke Yen verteuert die Produkte im Ausland, was für das exportabhängige Japan Gift ist. Mit dem Eingriff verliert der Yen gegenüber anderen Währungen – beispielsweise gegen den Euro und USD jeweils über 2%. Auch der Nikkei frohlockt aufgrund der Maßnahme und steigt um über 2%.
Zwei Gründe sprechen für einen Einstieg – USD/JPY – Swing-Trade – Einstieg
http://www.blog.cfx-broker.de/2010/09/zwei-gruende-sprechen-fuer-einen-einstieg-usdjpy-swing-trade-einstieg/

[cyberstievie]

Wechselkurse
Japan interveniert am Devisenmarkt

Der Höhenflug des Yen bereitet der japanischen Regierung Kopfschmerzen, weil er die exportabhängige japanische Wirtschaft belastet. Zum amerikanischen Dollar war der Yen zuletzt auf ein 15-Jahres-Hoch gestiegen, zum Euro auf den höchsten Stand seit neun Jahren. In der vergangenen Nacht hat die japanische Notenbank jetzt eingegriffen.

15. September 2010 Der seit Mai anhaltende Höhenflug des Yen zu vielen wichtigen Währungen hatte Regierung und Notenbank zusehends Kopfschmerzen bereitet. Japans Wirtschaft ist stark exportorientiert, eine feste Inlandswährung gilt damit als Gift für die heimische Wirtschaft. Ein Yen-Anstieg verteuert die japanischen Produkte im Ausland. Regierung und Notenbank hatten seit Wochen mit Interventionen gedroht. Diese verbalen Interventionen zeigten am Markt jedoch kaum eine Wirkung.

Am Mittwoch hat die japanische Notenbank nun im Auftrag der Regierung erstmals seit über sechs Jahren wieder am Devisenmarkt eingegriffen, nachdem der Yen zum Dollar auf den höchsten Stand seit 15 Jahren gestiegen war. Japans Finanzminister Yoshihiko Noda bestätigte am Mittwochmorgen die Intervention. Man könne über die Yen-Stärke nicht mehr hinwegsehen, sagte er zur Begründung. Ansonsten könne der Yen-Höhenflug die ohnehin nicht sonderlich starke heimische Wirtschaft treffen. „Wir befinden uns in einer schwierigen Wirtschaftslage“, sagte Noda, Details zum Umfang der Operation nannte er aber nicht.

Händlern zufolge kaufte die Regierung am Mittwoch in mehreren Schritten Dollar für etwa 200 Mrd bis 300 Mrd Yen. Die Regierung hat eingegriffen, als der Dollar unter die Marke von 83 Yen gesunken war. Händler in Tokio vermuteten, dass Japan einen Dollar-Kurs von rund 85 Yen anstrebt. In einer ersten Reaktion auf die Interventionen stieg der Dollar kräftig von 82,88 Yen auf 85,51 Yen. Der Euro kletterte von 107,75 Yen auf 111,10 Yen. An der Tokioter Börse honorierten die Anleger das Eingreifen der Behörden. Der Nikkei-Index stieg um 2,3 Prozent auf 9516 Punkte. „Die deutliche Reaktion an den Märkten ist auch mit dem Überraschungseffekt zu erklären“, sagte Ulrich Wortberg, Devisenexperte von der Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba).

Weitere Eingriffe erwartet

Weitere Fremdwährungskäufe schloss das japanische Finanzministerium nicht aus. Auch viele Ökonomen gehen davon aus, dass weitere Interventionen der japanischen Behörden folgen werden, damit der nun erzielte Effekt nicht verpufft.

Die japanischen Behörden handelten offenbar im Alleingang. Das deutete der japanische Finanzminister Noda an. Allerdings sei man mit den Behörden der Partnerländer in Kontakt: „Wir haben eng mit den betreffenden Autoritäten kooperiert, aber ich möchte mich nicht zu ihren Reaktionen äußern“, sagte er. Das amerikanische Finanzministerium und die amerikanische Notenbank wollten sich nicht zu den Interventionen äußern. Auch die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB), Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) und Bank of England (BoE) lehnten einen Kommentar ab.

Interventionen zur Schwächung der eigenen Währung sind grundsätzlich nicht gerne gesehen. So drängen die Vereinigten Staaten und die EU seit Jahren China, die eigene Währung nicht länger künstlich niedrig zu halten. Doch Japan sei ein Sonderfall, erklärten Analysten. „Offensichtlich steckt Japans Wirtschaft schon seit einiger Zeit in der Krise“, erklärt Simon Flint, Währungsanalyst bei Nomura in Singapur.

Meinungen über Wirkungsgrad der Interventionen gehen auseinander

Die EZB hat zuletzt im November 2000 am Devisenmarkt interveniert - allerdings, um die eigene Währung zu stärken. Damals hievte sie in einer konzertierten Aktion gemeinsam mit der Fed und der Bank of Japan den Euro auf 0,86 Dollar. In jüngster Zeit hat vor allem die Schweizerische Notenbank am Markt interveniert. Wie die Bank of Japan hat sie aber die Landeswährung - den Franken - damit geschwächt.

Die Meinungen über den Wirkungsgrad der Interventionen gehen unter Beobachtern auseinander. Händler von HSBC vermuten, dass die Massnahmen den übergeordneten Abwärtstrend des Dollar nicht werden stoppen können. Andere Ökonomen sehen durchaus auch Erfolgsaussichten für die Maßnahmen und verweisen hier auf die wirtschaftliche Schwäche Japans. „Interventionen sind grundsätzlich dann erfolgreich, wenn sie eine Fehlbewertung des Devisenmarktes attackieren“, sagte Folker Hellmeyer, Chefanalyst der Bremer Landesbank. „Schwache Länder sollten grundsätzlich auch schwache Währungen haben.“ Bei einer anhaltenden Überbewertung droht laut Hellmeyer die Entstehung eines neuen Krisenherdes. „Die Aktion der japanischen Notenbank war überfällig.“

Generell ist es zudem einfacher, die eigene Währung zu schwächen als zu stärken. Schließlich kann die japanische Notenbank unbegrenzt Yen auf den Markt werfen. Auf Inflationsgefahren muss sie angesichts des sinkenden Preisniveaus noch keine Rücksicht nehmen. Eine Gefahr für die langfristige Wirksamkeit der Interventionen ist laut Wortberg jedoch, dass die japanische Notenbank allein steht und sich andere Notenbanken nicht an den Interventionen beteiligen.

Japanische Exportunternehmen begrüßen den Eingriff

Große japanische Exportunternehmen haben am Mittwoch die Interventionen der Regierung am Devisenmarkt begrüßt. „Aus Sicht der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der japanischen Industrie begrüßen wir die Entscheidung der Regierung und der Bank of Japan, gegen die Stärke des Yen vorzugehen“, erklärte Honda Motor, Japans zweitgrößter Autohersteller. Sony mahnte indessen Kooperation mit anderen Ländern an. Der Chef der Tokioter Börse, Atsushi Saito, beschrieb den hohen Yen-Kurs als irrational. Mit den Interventionen zeige Japan seine Entschlossenheit, die Währungsmärkte zu stabilisieren.

Text: FAZ.NET mit Dow Jones/Reuters/dpa-AFX
Bildmaterial: FAZ.NET, REUTERS

http://www.faz.net/s/RubEC1ACFE1EE274C81BCD3621EF555C83C/Doc~E9AE06CB05B2D450E8501BB75F64624F5~ATpl~Ecommon ~Scontent.html

http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?WIDTH=417&HEIGHT=443&TYPE=candle&TIME_SPAN=6M&TO=1284586618&AXIS_SCALE=lin&DATA_SCALE=abs&LNOTATIONS=1363989&LCOLORS=000000&IND=BB&AVG1=280&AVG2=140&AVG3=15&AVGTYPE=simple&WITH_EARNINGS=1&SHOWHL=1http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?WIDTH=417&HEIGHT=443&TYPE=candle&TIME_SPAN=SE&TO=1284586797&AXIS_SCALE=lin&DATA_SCALE=abs&LNOTATIONS=1363989&LCOLORS=000000&AVG1=280&AVG2=1400&AVGTYPE=simple&WITH_EARNINGS=1&SHOWHL=1

Japanische Intervention am Devisenmarkt – Sondermeldung
Es hat Jahre gedauert, nun hat Japan wieder am Devisenmarkt interveniert. Der japanische Finanzminister begründet diesen Schritt mit der schwierigen Wirtschaftslage des Landes. Der starke Yen verteuert die Produkte im Ausland, was für das exportabhängige Japan Gift ist. Mit dem Eingriff verliert der Yen gegenüber anderen Währungen – beispielsweise gegen den Euro und USD jeweils über 2%. Auch der Nikkei frohlockt aufgrund der Maßnahme und steigt um über 2%.
Zwei Gründe sprechen für einen Einstieg – USD/JPY – Swing-Trade – Einstieg
http://www.blog.cfx-broker.de/2010/09/zwei-gruende-sprechen-fuer-einen-einstieg-usdjpy-swing-trade-einstieg/

pelzig unterhält sich... ;-)
...danke für das posting! :thumb_right:

[cyberstievie]

Meldung 15.09.2010 16:13
Gold und Silber sind nicht zu stoppen
von Angela Göpfert

Die Rally am Markt für Edelmetalle geht weiter. Es sieht ganz danach aus, als ob das neue Rekordhoch bei Gold und das Zweieinhalb-Jahreshoch bei Silber nur Zwischenstopps waren auf dem Weg zu viel höheren Zielen.

Zwar hat der Goldpreis nach seinem gestrigen Rekordhoch von 1.274,75 Dollar am Mittwoch eine kleine Pause eingelegt. Die Feinunze des Edelmetalls wird nahezu unverändert bei 1.268 Dollar gehandelt. Doch Experten sind überzeugt: Das ist nur ein Luftholen, bevor sich der Goldpreis in noch schwindelerregendere Höhen aufmachen wird.

Anstieg bis auf 1.550 Dollar?

So verkündeten die Experten der DZ Bank am Dienstag: "Wir halten unverändert an unserer positiven Prognose von 1.350 Dollar per Jahresende fest." Dan Brebner, Analyst der Deutschen Bank in London, der in diesem Jahr bislang mit den treffsichersten Prognosen aufwartete, ist sogar noch optimistischer.

Brebner geht davon aus, dass der Goldpreis weiter steigen und im vierten Quartal durchschnittlich bei 1.400 Dollar notieren wird. Im kommenden Jahr dürfte das Edelmetall die nächste Hundertermarke durchbrechen und einen Preis von 1.550 Dollar je Feinunze erreichen.

Flucht in Sicherheit

Tatsächlich spricht derzeit gleich ein ganzes Bündel an guten Gründen für eine Fortsetzung der Gold-Rally. So treibt derzeit Investoren weltweit die Angst vor einem Double Dip, vor einem erneuten Abgleiten der Wirtschaft in die Rezession, um. Als besonders gefährdet gilt die größte Volkswirtschaft der Welt, neue Daten aus den USA deuten auf ein starkes Nachlassen der konjunkturellen Dynamik hin.

Zugleich misstrauen viele Anleger der Stabilität des Bankensystems. Vor diesem Hintergrund fliehen sie in die so genannten sicheren Häfen. Dazu zählen neben den Währungen Schweizer Franken und Yen auch die Edelmetalle.

Unterstützung von der Angebotsseite

Doch auch ein unerwartetes Anziehen der Konjunktur würde neue Investoren in den Goldmarkt ziehen. Denn eine stärkere Wirtschaftsleistung würde auch die Schmucknachfrage steigern, darauf weist Eugen Weinberg, Rohstoffanalyst bei der Commerzbank hin.

Unterstützung komme aber auch von der Angebotsseite: So habe etwa die russische Goldminenproduktion habe in den ersten sieben Monaten des laufenden Jahres 5,9 Prozent unter dem Vergleichswert des Vorjahres gelegen.

Absicherung gegen den Dollar-Verfall

Zugleich sprechen die Entwicklungen am Devisenmarkt für einen weiter steigenden Goldpreis, denn Dollar ist als Anlagewährung derzeit nicht allzu gefragt. Investoren nutzen Gold traditionell als Absicherung gegen einen Dollar-Verfall, da sich der Dollar-Wechselkurs und der (in Dollar notierende) Goldpreis in aller Regel gegenläufig entwickeln.

Hinzu kommt die Niedrigstzinspolitik der Notenbanken: Sowohl die Federal Reserve als auch die Europäische Zentralbank dürften den Leitzins bis weit ins Jahr 2011 auf einem historischen Tief belassen. Das befeuert die Angst vor einer Geldentwertung.

Gefahr von Gewinnmitnahmen?

Nicht zuletzt spricht die Charttechnik eine klare Sprache: Der Aufwärtstrend bei dem Edelmetall ist mehr als intakt, mit der Markierung eines neuen Rekordhochs sandte der Rohstoff zudem ein neues Kaufsignal.

Durch den neuerlichen Preisanstieg sei nicht nur die Gefahr von Gewinnmitnahmen spekulativer Finanzanleger deutlich gesunken. Vielmehr könnten nun weitere Investoren auf den fahrenden Zug aufspringen, vermutet auch die Commerzbank. Allerdings erkennen Marktbeobachter auch erste Anzeichen für einen heiß gelaufenen Markt.

Auch der kleine Bruder Silber ...

Doch nicht nur Gold, auch Silber nehmen Investoren aus den oben genannten Gründen verschärft ins Visier. Zusätzlich spricht eine anhaltend robuste Nachfrage aus China für weitere Preissteigerungen bei Silber, findet das Edelmetall doch unter anderem in der Autoindustrie und Photovoltaikbranche Verwendung.

Am Dienstag hatte sich die Feinunze des Edelmetalls um bis zu 1,9 Prozent auf 20,41 Dollar verteuert. So viel hatte Silber zuletzt im März 2008 gekostet. "Nach dem Überwinden der 20-Dollar-Marke könnten weitere Anleger auf den fahrenden Zug aufspringen", hieß es in einem Marktkommentar der Commerzbank.

... hat noch Luft nach oben

Für Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach vom Edelmetall-Spezialisten Heraeus hat der Silberkurs charttechnisch noch Luft bis zur Höchstmarke von 21,24 US-Dollar aus dem Jahr 2008. Wegen des hohen Anteils spekulativ orientierter Investoren im Markt dürften aber spätestens dann Gewinnmitnahmen einsetzen.


http://boerse.ard.de/content.jsp?key=dokument_466388

http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?WIDTH=417&HEIGHT=443&TYPE=candle&TIME_SPAN=6M&TO=1284587106&AXIS_SCALE=lin&DATA_SCALE=abs&LNOTATIONS=1326189&LCOLORS=000000&IND=BB&AVG1=200&AVG2=100&AVG3=10&AVGTYPE=simple&WITH_EARNINGS=1&SHOWHL=1http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?WIDTH=417&HEIGHT=443&TYPE=candle&TIME_SPAN=SE&TO=1284587106&AXIS_SCALE=lin&DATA_SCALE=abs&LNOTATIONS=1326189&LCOLORS=000000&AVG1=200&AVG2=1000&AVGTYPE=simple&WITH_EARNINGS=1&SHOWHL=1

http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?WIDTH=417&HEIGHT=443&TYPE=candle&TIME_SPAN=6M&TO=1284587367&AXIS_SCALE=lin&DATA_SCALE=abs&LNOTATIONS=1288094&LCOLORS=000000&IND=BB&AVG1=200&AVG2=100&AVG3=10&AVGTYPE=simple&WITH_EARNINGS=1&SHOWHL=1http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?WIDTH=417&HEIGHT=443&TYPE=candle&TIME_SPAN=SE&TO=1284587324&AXIS_SCALE=lin&DATA_SCALE=abs&LNOTATIONS=1288094&LCOLORS=000000&AVG1=200&AVG2=1000&AVGTYPE=simple&WITH_EARNINGS=1&SHOWHL=1

[pelzig]

;-) Viel Unterhaltung gibt es hier aber nicht.
Wechselkurse
Japan interveniert am Devisenmarkt
Japanische Intervention am Devisenmarkt – Sondermeldung

pelzig unterhält sich... ;-)
...danke für das posting! :thumb_right:

[pelzig]

USDJPY hält sich weiter klar über der 85.

[pelzig]

Jetzt wird die 86 attackiet. :-)

[pelzig]

http://www.blog.cfx-broker.de/2010/09/gewinnmitnahme-vor-dem-wochenende-usdjpy-swing-trade-ausstieg/
Ich bleibe aber selbst wohl noch drin!!?? Knapp 70 Pips Gewinn aufgelaufen. Meinungen?

[pelzig]

Habe jetzt das Währungspaar gewechselt. Mein Einstieg erfolgte aber tiefer. ;-)
http://www.blog.cfx-broker.de/2010/09/der-angekuendigte-long-einstieg-wurde-vollzogen-eurjpy-swing-trade-einstieg/
http://www.blog.cfx-broker.de/2010/09/gewinnmitnahme-vor-dem-wochenende-usdjpy-swing-trade-ausstieg/
Ich bleibe aber selbst wohl noch drin!!?? Knapp 70 Pips Gewinn aufgelaufen. Meinungen?

[cyberstievie]

@pelzig
Dies sollte eigentlich (wie in der Überschrift eingefügt) ein "NEWS"-Thread sein - deine Trades könntest du doch gerne in den allg. Tradingthread posten...! :roll::thumb_right:
Vielen Dank!
cs
Habe jetzt das Währungspaar gewechselt. Mein Einstieg erfolgte aber tiefer. ;-)
http://www.blog.cfx-broker.de/2010/09/der-angekuendigte-long-einstieg-wurde-vollzogen-eurjpy-swing-trade-einstieg/
http://www.blog.cfx-broker.de/2010/09/gewinnmitnahme-vor-dem-wochenende-usdjpy-swing-trade-ausstieg/
Ich bleibe aber selbst wohl noch drin!!?? Knapp 70 Pips Gewinn aufgelaufen. Meinungen?

[cyberstievie]

Press Release

Release Date: September 21, 2010

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts are at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract, but at a reduced rate in recent months. The Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be modest in the near term.

Measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to remain subdued for some time before rising to levels the Committee considers consistent with its mandate.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. The Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh.

Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig, who judged that the economy continues to recover at a moderate pace. Accordingly, he believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted and will lead to future imbalances that undermine stable long-run growth. In addition, given economic and financial conditions, Mr. Hoenig did not believe that continuing to reinvest principal payments from its securities holdings was required to support the Committee’s policy objectives.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20100921a.htm

http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?WIDTH=417&HEIGHT=443&TYPE=candle&TIME_SPAN=6M&TO=1285099399&AXIS_SCALE=lin&DATA_SCALE=abs&LNOTATIONS=988006&LCOLORS=000000&IND=BB&IND0=VOLUME&IND1=RSI&IND2=MACD&AVG1=200&AVG2=100&AVG3=10&AVGTYPE=simple&WITH_EARNINGS=1&SHOWHL=1

[pelzig]

Sorry! Wechsel also den Thread.
@pelzig
Dies sollte eigentlich (wie in der Überschrift eingefügt) ein "NEWS"-Thread sein - deine Trades könntest du doch gerne in den allg. Tradingthread posten...! :roll::thumb_right:
Vielen Dank!
cs
Habe jetzt das Währungspaar gewechselt. Mein Einstieg erfolgte aber tiefer. ;-)
http://www.blog.cfx-broker.de/2010/09/der-angekuendigte-long-einstieg-wurde-vollzogen-eurjpy-swing-trade-einstieg/
http://www.blog.cfx-broker.de/2010/09/gewinnmitnahme-vor-dem-wochenende-usdjpy-swing-trade-ausstieg/
Ich bleibe aber selbst wohl noch drin!!?? Knapp 70 Pips Gewinn aufgelaufen. Meinungen?

[cyberstievie]

Gold Prices Pop After FOMC Statement

ByAndrea Tse, TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
On Tuesday September 21, 2010, 4:47 pm EDT

(Gold story updated with price reaction to FOMC statement and gold investment advisor's comments)

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Gold prices began to firm up as investors gained a greater sense of direction on the economy after the Federal Open Market Committee maintained its target fed funds rate at 0% to 0.25% at its meeting Tuesday -- as expected.

"Gold is drifting higher as people's anxiety continues to rise," Wayne Atwell of Casimir Capital said. "The U.S. economy seems to be recovering at a weak pace. Every couple of weeks we seem to get news that it's recovering a little slower than we thought. I happen to think we won't have a double dip -- but it's certainly looking like we could.

The policymakers also hinted at possible additional quantatative easing.

"The committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate," it said in a written statement.

On Tuesday, another key piece of economic data -- housing starts -- was also announced. The Department of Commerce said housing starts increased 10.5% in August to 598,000 from 541,000 in July, which was better than the 550,000 starts economists were expecting, according to Briefing.com.

Gold for December delivery was rising $3.70 to $1284.50 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gold price Monday has traded as high as $1,289.40 and as low as $1,272. The U.S. dollar index was down 0.7% to $80.69 while the euro rose 1.2% to $1.32 vs. the dollar. The spot gold price was adding more than $7, according to Kitco's gold index.

This is in contrast to gold prices earlier today. "Gold prices opened with minor losses on Tuesday morning, as market players held their cards steady ahead of US housing starts numbers and the post-Fed meeting microphone session ... Not much here that can be labeled as anything resembling profit-taking or correction," Kitco analyst Jon Nadler wrote in a daily note.

As investors awaited key economic news out the U.S., Indian gold shoppers remain sidelined for another day as near record price tags "offered nothing in the way of incentives to lure them out to local dealers during the present festival period," Nadler of Kitco wrote in his note.

Silver prices was trading at $20.80 while copper prices were flat at $3.50.

Gold mining stocks, a more risky but more profitable way to invest in gold were trading in mixed territory.

Kinross Gold was rising by 0.4% to $18.90, while Newmont Mining was advancing by 1.2% to $64.02.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold was falling by 0.6% to $82.89 and gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust was higher by 0.5% to $125.53.

Atwell of Casimir Capital said he likes that gold has been moving up at a slightly slower clip than gold mining stocks.
"Gold has sort of been moving up by inches and the shares have been moving up a little faster than that. This is an ideal environment from our standpoint. We think gold is at a very attractive level -- the gold price is high enough for the miners to make very, very good money in almost all cases, but its low enough so that a lot of people think it's going higher."

"From our standpoint, we just like to see gold move up an inch at a time so that it doesn't get too strong."

On Monday, gold prices inched up as investors bought the yellow metal ahead of the FOMC meeting. Gold for December delivery settled $3.30 higher at $1,280.80 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gold price traded as high as $1,285.20 and as low as $1,275.60 in Monday's session. The U.S. dollar index was lower by 0.13% to $81.29 while the euro was flat at $1.30 vs. the dollar. The spot gold price Monday was up $4.80, according to Kitco's gold index.

-- Written by Andrea Tse in New York.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-Prices-Pop-After-FOMC-tsmf-3153566242.html;_ylt=AvtWAlxxHehQKpzuANMURqu7YWsA; _ylu=X3oDMTE1dTM4bDM1BHBvcwMyBHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzB HNsawNnb2xkZ2xpdHRlcnM-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=


http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?WIDTH=417&HEIGHT=443&TYPE=candle&TIME_SPAN=6M&TO=1285187783&AXIS_SCALE=lin&DATA_SCALE=abs&LNOTATIONS=1326189&LCOLORS=000000&IND=BB&IND0=MACD&IND1=RSI&AVG1=200&AVG2=100&AVG3=10&AVGTYPE=simple&WITH_EARNINGS=1&SHOWHL=1http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?WIDTH=417&HEIGHT=443&TYPE=candle&TIME_SPAN=6M&TO=1285187850&AXIS_SCALE=lin&DATA_SCALE=abs&LNOTATIONS=1390634&LCOLORS=000000&IND=BB&IND0=MACD&IND1=RSI&AVG1=280&AVG2=140&AVG3=15&AVGTYPE=simple&WITH_EARNINGS=1&SHOWHL=1

[cyberstievie]

Schuldenkrise
Investoren fliehen aus Irland-Anleihen

Der Anleihemarkt kommt nicht zur Ruhe. Die Kurse irischer Bonds rutschen ab. Zeitweise bekommen Investoren mehr als sieben Prozent Rendite für zehnjährige Anleihen von der Insel. Händler suchen nach Gründen für den neuerlichen Rückschlag.

HB FRANKFURT. Die irischen Staatsanleihen sind am Montag kräftig unter Druck geraten. Die zehnjährigen Papiere rutschten in der Spitze um 74 Ticks auf 84,89 Punkte ab. Entsprechend kletterte die Rendite auf 7,175 Prozent von 7,057 Prozent am Freitagabend. Dadurch weitete sich der Abstand der Spread zwischen den irischen den deutschen Anleihen um zwölf Basispunkte auf 467 Basispunke aus.

Einen echten Auslöser für die Verkäufe der irischen Anleihen machten Händler nicht aus. In London und Frankfurt hieß es, bei feiertagsbedingt (Allerheiligen) geringen Umsätzen ziehe der Bund-Future vor allem aus technischen Gründen an. Der Terminkontrakt kletterte um bis zu 65 Ticks auf 129,88 Punkte. Die dem Bund-Future zugrunde liegende zehnjährige Bundesanleihe rentierte mit 2,468 Prozent wieder weniger als am Freitag mit 2,51 Prozent.

Eines steht fest: Das Misstrauen gegenüber hochverschuldeten Ländern wie Irland oder Griechenland ist in den vergangenen Tagen wieder deutlich gewachsen. Das hängt mit dem enttäuschenden Ausgang des EU-Gipfels zur Stabilität des Euros zusammen. "Vieles ist noch in der Schwebe, und die Beschlüsse des Gipfels sind weit hinter den Vorschlägen der EU-Kommission geblieben", sagte Torge Middendorf, Analyst für die Euro-Zone bei der WestLB.

Beim Gipfel der EU-Staats- und Regierungschefs in Brüssel hatten Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel und der französische Präsident Nicholas Sarkozy eine Vertragsänderung für einen dauerhaften Euro-Schutzschirm durchgesetzt - nach Einschätzung von Analysten der einzige Pluspunkt des Gipfels. "Die Idee, dass ein Hilfsmechanismus nach 2012 weiter existieren soll, ist das einzige greifbare Detail", erklärte Commerzbank-Devisenanalystin Antje Praefcke.

Analyst Middendorf kritisierte, dass weiterhin die Finanzminister über die Verhängung von Sanktionen gegen Mitgliedsländer mit laxer Haushaltsführung entscheiden sollen. "Da urteilen Sünder über Sünder. Die Entscheidung über Sanktionen sollte bei einer externen Institution angesiedelt sein."

Kritisch gesehen wurde zudem die geplante Beteiligung privater Gläubiger, falls es in der Zukunft zur Rettung überschuldeter Staaten kommt. "Der Fondsmanager schaut sich seine Bestände an und sagt, das kann ich meinen Sparern gegenüber nicht verantworten und verkauft", sagte UniCredit-Analyst Kornelius Purps. "Wenn das alle tun, kann es wieder zu turbulenten Szenen kommen."

Das Misstrauen von Anlegern gegenüber Staatsanleihen aus Irland und Griechenland stieg bereits am Freitag an. "Alle versuchen wieder aus riskanten Anlegen herauszugehen", sagte ein Analyst.


http://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/marktberichte/schuldenkrise-investoren-fliehen-aus-irland-anleihen;2683635